This just in from Disney Parks blog!

[morethananyonex]

Also true, but everyone seems to be under the impression that Disney has decided to stop building attractions forever and will solely build infrastructure for the parks.

Yes, they could have spent that $1B+ on attractions but they decided to use it in another way that they believe will improve the park. It doesn't mean they stopped building attractions all together.

It's been reported that MyMagic+ being so over budget has caused a freeze on projects all across Disney except for Shanghai. They may not have stopped building forever, but boy would it have been nice to see Cars Land (or something similar) built at DHS to take the pressure off of TSMM instead of tiers to band aid the problem.

The money spent is a huge amount that could have done tons for the parks, particularly the 2 parks that are hurting the most. It's disappointing as a guest to see so much money put into something that is so obviously for the benefit of Disney for the most part, when even a chunk of that money could have been used on attractions that directly benefit guests in the now AND the long run.

I am not naive, and I understand why Disney would want to invest in something that (they hope) will bring them more profits in the long run. That doesn't make it any less disappointing from a guest perspective.

 

[Reddog1134]

It shouldn't have to be "either/or". I think that we toss around the $2B number as if it has no meaning. Stop and think about that number for a moment:

$2,000,000,000.00

And all behinds the scenes. And all in lieu of spending in other areas. All while Epcot has empty pavilions and empty restaurants and DHS dies on the vine. Wasn't the original estimate for this phase of NextGen supposed to be $500M? Does it really take $2,000,000,000.00 to move some people out of the Space Mountain line and push them into the PoTC line? Without debating the efficacy of NextGen and FP+, the efficiency is easy to debate. I think that there would be a lot less teeth gnashing if FP+ had been part of a $500M initiative that was coupled with the construction of a Star Wars land and Cars Land, both of which could have been built with the leftover $1.5B. With still some money leftover for a boat dock and paved parking lot.

That's kind of my point. Yes $2B is a lot of money but a lot of the reactions on here seem to be "That's it. Disney spent $2B and now they will never spend another dime. They'll never build another ride. We'll never get Star War Land or Cars Land or any other ride ever again".

As another person said, Disney has no trouble attracting guests. The guests are already coming. They're looking for a way to manage those guests.

 

[morethananyonex]

People are complaining about over crowding in parks already... Could you imagine 4 more rides at MK that draw 10% higher crowds? Look at Christmas and fit 10% more people on main street.

Universal does not have close to the attendance of Disney and Disney has different issues. While Universal needs more people at the park Disney needs to get more money from the people already at the parks.

And investment in parks that are not MK could help to alleviate the crowds at MK. How many people view DHS, Epcot or AK as half day parks? How many people view MK as a half day park, or even one full day?

Besides, the idea behind expansion is to make more room for the people, not bring in more people and stuff them into the same space, which seems to be what MyMagic+ attempts.

I've never heard anyone say "Wow, our vacation was amazing thanks to a beautiful new boat dock."

I dunno, I think our view of the new bus loop at MK from our room at BLT really made our vacation

It shouldn't have to be "either/or". I think that we toss around the $2B number as if it has no meaning. Stop and think about that number for a moment:

$2,000,000,000.00

And all behinds the scenes. And all in lieu of spending in other areas. All while Epcot has empty pavilions and empty restaurants and DHS dies on the vine. Wasn't the original estimate for this phase of NextGen supposed to be $500M? Does it really take $2,000,000,000.00 to move some people out of the Space Mountain line and push them into the PoTC line? Without debating the efficacy of NextGen and FP+, the efficiency is easy to debate. I think that there would be a lot less teeth gnashing if FP+ had been part of a $500M initiative that was coupled with the construction of a Star Wars land and Cars Land, both of which could have been built with the leftover $1.5B. With still some money leftover for a boat dock and paved parking lot.

 

[JimmyV]

Disney went with benefitting all guests, not just the atypical guest. On the back end the atypical guest can still use planning and effort to surpass the typical guest-just not as dramatically.

If there is one thing that can be concluded from a year's worth of debate/argument about FP+ is that guests' wants and needs when they visit WDW are so diverse that there is no system that can fairly aim at benefitting all of them. One cannot simultaneously satisfy both the family that likes to have a character breakfast, arrive at a park, do 5 rides and call it a day and the family that likes to accomplish 30 rides in a day, all without waiting more than 20 minutes at any one ride. In trying to benefit all guests, Disney has made the ability of one of those groups to achieve its mission statement very, very difficult, and perhaps impossible. Dissent is inevitable and the notion that "all guests have benefitted" is an idea that simply cannot and will not fly. The best that can be said is that Disney knows that it has dramatically impacted a faction of its fan base and doesn't care because a greater good is being achieved. That is fine. But it does nothing to mollify the impacted.

 

[clsteve]

People are complaining about over crowding in parks already... Could you imagine 4 more rides at MK that draw 10% higher crowds? Look at Christmas and fit 10% more people on main street.

Universal does not have close to the attendance of Disney and Disney has different issues. While Universal needs more people at the park Disney needs to get more money from the people already at the parks.

Kinda wondering why you'd put four new rides in the park with the least issue in all of this instead of in the tiered parks that most need it? Or, a new land or two to help crowd distribution?

And it's funny that the first thing they've ever said as a benefit to them was how they were able to get an extra 3000 in MK. You might want to re-think those examples

 

[jade1]

It shouldn't have to be "either/or". I think that we toss around the $2B number as if it has no meaning. Stop and think about that number for a moment:

$2,000,000,000.00

And all behinds the scenes. And all in lieu of spending in other areas. All while Epcot has empty pavilions and empty restaurants and DHS dies on the vine. Wasn't the original estimate for this phase of NextGen supposed to be $500M? Does it really take $2,000,000,000.00 to move some people out of the Space Mountain line and push them into the PoTC line? Without debating the efficacy of NextGen and FP+, the efficiency is easy to debate. I think that there would be a lot less teeth gnashing if FP+ had been part of a $500M initiative that was coupled with the construction of a Star Wars land and Cars Land, both of which could have been built with the leftover $1.5B. With still some money leftover for a boat dock and paved parking lot.

One cartoon almost made that, plenty of cash for a $1.1 Billion plus Carsland.

 

[OtherScott]

It won't be crowd levels that dictate attendance drop offs, but enjoyment levels. There is a connection between the two, but it is more linked to "value" than anything else. The argument that Disney has always been and always will be packed is illusory. We can all imagine things that Disney could do to make people stop going. I'm talking about really Draconian things that make it downright unpleasant to return there. Of course, they haven't done those things yet. But we just put that out there as one of the guide posts. So somewhere between where they are at now and where that Draconian post is placed lies the breaking point for people whereby they will stop going. The Dodgers will never leave Brooklyn. Until they do. This idea that "Disney will always be Disney and nothing that it does will lessen people's enthusiasm for it" is a deadly corporate strategy.

My own personal anecdotal tales mean nothing in the abstract, but for what they are worth, the vast majority of families that I know who have gone to WDW for the first time in the past 3 years were not won over to be lifetime guests. They were universally (pun intended) equally impressed with US and more likely to return there. None of them were bitten by the Disney bug. And none of them are in the "I can't wait to go back" crowd. What gets lost in all of this discussion is that we on this board are veterans who know the workarounds. We have no appreciation for just what is happening to first time guests. Kevin discussed this on the podcast recently. The recent changes can be overwhelming to first time visitors and that is something that we here simply cannot fully appreciate. "You mean I was supposed to book my ride on TSM in advance? I didn't know that. And now my kids can't go on it. This sucks." It can happen.

I get all of that. I think you can say the same thing about the family that arrives at HS at 10:30 and sees they cant get onto TSMM until after dinner. Or telling my imaginary daughter that she can't see the princesses at Epcot 60 days out versus in the park because we were a couple of green lights shy of getting an FP. Neither family can fix it because they're already there. At least with FP+, they're told during booking that they can do this. (No, they wouldn't know the princess FPs would be gone in seconds).

But I don't want to get into defending FP+ on the merits. We all have different opinions and preferences so nobody convinces anyone else. It will sorta, kinda work for me at 2 of the parks, not so much at another and no effect at all at the last.

I'm intrigued by the nature of FP+ and what it says about what Disney sees on the horizon. Maybe it's because I think I see the same thing that I tend to think they know what they're doing.

I think expansion is great. I don't think the question is "why this" so much as it is "why now?" You have steady revenue and underutilized attractions. You need to use them or replace them, simple as that. They've chosen to use them for now.

I think MM+ is necessary to whatever physical expansion you want to do in the future.

 

[Reddog1134]

I am not naive, and I understand why Disney would want to invest in something that (they hope) will bring them more profits in the long run. That doesn't make it any less disappointing from a guest perspective.

Absolutely. I'm disappointed that there is no news about more Star Wars coming to the parks. But I also understand there's no guarantee that there would be news even IF they weren't spending all this money on NextGen.

So, I'm not going to let speculation and "what ifs?" ruin Disney for me. I still enjoy what's already there. So far, NextGen and FP+ hasn't changed that for me.

 

[Disney_Princess83]

I dunno, I think our view of the new bus loop at MK from our room at BLT really made our vacation

Well I stand corrected!

 

[JimmyV]

The guests are already coming. They're looking for a way to manage those guests.

Let's look at how they managed guests at MK (the one park where people have the least beef with FP+).

Once upon a time, at RD, people rushed to:

• Space Mountain
• Frontierland (BTMRR and Splash)
• Dumbo
• Mickey's House
• And to a lesser extent, PP

They spend money on Fantasyland. Now, at RD, people disperse rather evenly and efficiently, heading toward:

• Space Mountain
• Frontierland (BTMRR and Splash)
• ETWB
• Mickey Meet and Greet
• Princess Meet and Greets
• Soon the Mine Train
• And to a lesser extent, Under the Sea and PP

This is a very efficient way to manage crowds. Give them choices of what to do. And it didn't cost $1B to do this. (Estimates hover around $600M)

So you want to manage crowds at DHS better? Give them somewhere to go besides TSM, RnR, ToT and Jedi Training. Want to manage crowds better at Epcot? Give them somewhere to go besides Soarin' and TT. Heck. When the Frozen Girls were there, that was a game changer. Imagine if there was actually a Frozen ride that siphoned off more guests than just the 400 unlucky fathers who had to sit in Norway. Much of the displeasure is coming from the fact that, yes, we know more is coming. But it will be in our childrens' lifetime or that of our grandchildren. In our lifetime, we will get to use fancy plastic wristbands and stand in line to use fancy new kiosks. Yeay!!

 

[jade1]

If there is one thing that can be concluded from a year's worth of debate/argument about FP+ is that guests' wants and needs when they visit WDW are so diverse that there is no system that can fairly aim at benefitting all of them. One cannot simultaneously satisfy both the family that likes to have a character breakfast, arrive at a park, do 5 rides and call it a day and the family that likes to accomplish 30 rides in a day, all without waiting more than 20 minutes at any one ride. In trying to benefit all guests, Disney has made the ability of one of those groups to achieve its mission statement very, very difficult, and perhaps impossible. Dissent is inevitable and the notion that "all guests have benefitted" is an idea that simply cannot and will not fly. The best that can be said is that Disney knows that it has dramatically impacted a faction of its fan base and doesn't care because a greater good is being achieved. That is fine. But it does nothing to mollify the impacted.

But we were talking about FP distribution only. There is no way to know what each family truly desires, and which family should be offered what, and in what way. Simply saying I know I want more than that family doesn't mean you should expect Disney to oblige.

If allowing each guest to select 3 FP ahead of time, and then basically letting the system stay as an electronic form of FP- after those selections, means some family won't get 30 rides in a day-then we can agree they are negatively impacted.

 

[OtherScott]

The biggest cost overrun occurred when people started talking about it.

Heck, it's gone from $1.5 billion last Tuesday to $2 billion today.

 

[JimmyV]

The biggest cost overrun occurred when people started talking about it.

Heck, it's gone from $1.5 billion last Tuesday to $2 billion today.

That's the result of the podcast discussion(s) about the recent changes. They are using a number (from their sources) that closely approximates $2B.

 

[MaryKatesMom]

Depends on who it is. This now gives the rope droppers the potential to have more FPs if they make the effort while still guaranteeing late arrivals their reserved FPs. For rope droppers, the potential of more than three is better, and for others, three is better than zero.

1) Rope Droppers will see their SB line cut off wait time arrive earlier. Meaning, I won't wait more than 30 for most things (Soarin' and TSMM are higher). So instead of being done by Noon most days, I will be done by 10.
2) If the FP- on headliners were gone by noon during peaks, nothing will be left.

I think by the afternoon of the day-of, they will just throw the scraps into the bucket and say have at it because they know there won't be much left.

I think that's why they don't care about adding this functionality. As opposed to selling them. They would sell them if they could, but they know by this point there is nothing left to sell.

By doing this, they take the wind out of the complaints and give something back that they don't care about at that point. Of course, I'm still waiting for the bonus prebooked FP for deluxe guests, so if that happens there will really be little left.

I'm HOPING for the bonus prebooked FP for deluxe guests. Otherwise the value of staying in a further diminishes. Since they've added so many new rooms the value of EMH has gone down.

Yeah, but you'd be able to walk onto a bunch of other rides that nobody else wanted to ride - which is the very foundation of economic success in the entertainment industry.

True if they cost extra. However, once admission is paid, where is the economic sense of having a guest look around, see nothing they want to do and then leave? I don't see how diminishing guest satisfaction is an economic success. Short term yes, but how will that effect returns?

This is the part that makes my head hurt. If I hovered over the app for weeks leading up to my trip hunting for a certain FP and never succeeded, yet someone else was able to walk up to the kiosk one afternoon and get said FP, it would be so frustrating. Between that, and chasing parade FPs, A/E FPs, Wishes FPs, this really is becoming a full time job of chasing things down.

I remember the good old days. When I had the trip booked, and had finally scheduled that one last elusive ADR, and I put it all away, knowing I was "done" and only had to count down the days. Sigh. It really does seem that is a thing of the past.

Tell me about it! I have been checking daily for WEEKS for the parade to come online.

You know who I feel really sorry for are the truly clueless. Or the first time visitor trying to decipher mesaboy's list. How the heck do you decide what is worth it to you if you've never done the attraction yourself?

Space Mountain is one of the most popular rides, I've ridden it many times, however in the last couple of years I've learned my back kills me when I get off. So this trip, I'm doing Buzz while the family does SM.

There isn't a need to drop the minimum of 3 requirement to free up more FPs. With data, Disney will know with a fair degree of certainty the number of FPs that will actually get redeemed for rides. And that number will allow for overbooking.

Disney has always been able to measure which guest pulled which FPs and in what order. It could drill down to measure subsets, such as park hoppers, or rope droppers, or late arrivals, or families with kids of certain ages, and many more.

But specific info on who is redeeming these FPs is a little trickier. They could measure the actual total number, and even use the return window numbers to loosely match them to distribution times, but unless someone was scanning these little pieces of paper after the fact, precise data wasn't available.

And 50% weren't using it at all.

Now Disney will know the likelihood that a FP for Space Mountain at 6pm on April 4 will actually be redeemed based on how many days out it was booked, by who, by what other attractions/ADRs this guest has planned, by which day of their multi-day ticket they're on, by where they've already been and where they're going, by what the lines will be like based on what everyone else is booking.

So the minimum of 3 will set the hook weeks out, as designed, and as long as some variation of it is adhered to, more revenue opportunities in the park.

The earliest and the latest planned attractions are the most important reservations to Disney.

I hope they don't start overbooking like the airlines do. Yes, they are usually right but are wrong often enough to bump passengers and they have decades of data. If Disney does it with FP+ you will end up with wildly fluctuating FP+ return times as they won't "bump" guests.

We'll say the average is 50% return on POTC, what is the +/- on that number? Hard to imagine they will have enough to keep the FP line consistent at 10 minutes for example. Could it be enough to swing FP from a 5min wait to a 30 minutes wait?

Now lets throw in the weather. Now it is 80% on a good day and 10% during a torrential downpour. We all know how predictable FL weather is.

We have to be careful in using this quote. Disney said that they crammed 3,000 more people in at Christmas. But it hasn't said that all of these people had the same experience in terms of rides completed and wait times experienced as in the past. If the average number of rides completed on such a crowded day was 9 and the average wait time was 45 minutes, and Disney crammed 3,000 more people in the park and the average number of rides completed dropped to 8 and average wait times rose to 55 minutes, the only winner in that equation is Disney. The fact that they were able to add 3,000 people to the park is only meaningful if the experience of all the guests was unchanged as compared to past performance, and Disney has not told us that. In fact, I'm not sure there is any way for them to measure it.

Did they ride three rides take their money and go home?

Make no mistake about it. FP+ is not a "time saving" system. It is only a "time planning" system. It doesn't save you time waiting in line (because like you said it just redistributes wait times).

But it does allow you to plan your day better. You could make sure you have a FP for a ride just before your dinner, or just after. You can make sure you get that ONE important thing done with no fuss. You can make sure to have an efficient plan for navigating the park.

Disney went to great lengths to make sure the system is not exploitable. If people stop trying to analyze FP+ to death to "get the most out of it", and instead use it to help plan their day...they'll be a lot happier.

I'll disagree. I won't stand in SB lines. I've been there dozen's of times and nothing is worth more than 30 minutes for me except Soarin' or TSMM. If I am not on an attraction I'd rather be doing either another attraction with little or no waits or walking around enjoying the entertainment in the WS as EPCOT is my favorite park.

I've got three FP+'s planned. Two things have changed.
1) SB lines on attractions have gone up. SE used to be a walk on late afternoon. Now SE has 30 minutes at 3PM when it used to be a walk on after 3PM.
2) I am now scheduled so tightly that I won't be able to see as much of the things I love in WS as I need to stay in FW. The only FP+ in WS is Maelstrom and my kids would never go for it over TT.

I'm not sure how I can "plan" around those two problems.

Maybe I can "plan" on using my FP+ in the morning but that would leave no attractions to ride in the afternoon and seriously disrupt rope drop.

 

[OtherScott]

If there is one thing that can be concluded from a year's worth of debate/argument about FP+ is that guests' wants and needs when they visit WDW are so diverse that there is no system that can fairly aim at benefitting all of them. One cannot simultaneously satisfy both the family that likes to have a character breakfast, arrive at a park, do 5 rides and call it a day and the family that likes to accomplish 30 rides in a day, all without waiting more than 20 minutes at any one ride. In trying to benefit all guests, Disney has made the ability of one of those groups to achieve its mission statement very, very difficult, and perhaps impossible. Dissent is inevitable and the notion that "all guests have benefitted" is an idea that simply cannot and will not fly. The best that can be said is that Disney knows that it has dramatically impacted a faction of its fan base and doesn't care because a greater good is being achieved. That is fine. But it does nothing to mollify the impacted.

Getting to Stage 5 is a bear, but it beats 1 thru 4...

 

[JimmyV]

There is no way to know what each family truly desires, and which family should be offered what, and in what way.

Which is why there is so much frustration. Under FP-, the FPs were thrown out to the wolves and the hungry wolves could feed. Now, each wolf is hand-fed a like amount by a game warden that admittedly doesn't know what each wolf desires and in what way. In economics, politics and theme parks, it is always difficult to adjust to a system whereby someone else thinks that they know better than you do what you want and need. In many circumstances, it is necessary to live under this belief. But are theme park attractions one of those times?

If allowing each guest to select 3 FP ahead of time, and then basically letting the system stay as an electronic form of FP- after those selections, means some family won't get 30 rides in a day-then we can agree they are negatively impacted.

Common Ground!

 

[thehogsters]

I don't believe fp+ cost $2 billion. The new coaster at Cedar Point cost $30 million. So say a Disney coaster might be double that price with all the extras rhey do. So at $60 million (wich would be the most awsome coaster ever built) they could have built 33 of them with money left over at $2 billion. Just think 8.25 new coasters ( best in the world at that price) per park! That's what $2 billion can get you.

 

[MaryKatesMom]

The average guest wouldn't care. The average guest also probably doesn't care that they built a new Ferry Boat dock. But that new dock DOES benefit them.

There's no doubt in my mind that if you ask someone, "would you rather see Disney build a new ride or restructure their parking lot" nearly 100% of the people would say "new ride". But that doesn't mean restructuring their parking lot wouldn't benefit guests in a way they may not see.

My neighbor was selling his house and was disappointed when they evaluated what his house was worth. He had just put a new roof, new kitchen and new furnace all pricey but less than the increase in appreciation. The real estate agent told him people expect a roof and furnance but the extra kitchen was worth the investment since that will draw buyers.

Same thing. I expect a bus over to WDW, if it is couple of years old, OK. But brand spanking new with all the bells and whistles won't make me come back to WDW since the bus ride isn't the purpose of my visit.

 

[OtherScott]

In economics, politics and theme parks, it is always difficult to adjust to a system whereby someone else thinks that they know better than you do what you want and need.

Disney does know what its customers want. They get rewarded for this ability by people trading them billions of dollars annually in exchange for it.

If you're no longer one of them, you just joined over 90% of the US population.

Nothing purer than 2 people voluntarily trading things of value.

 

[Don Disney]

If the lines are long now,how will this "new"FP+ deal make things better? I am really hoping things get around to being better so We can book another trip without all of the uncertainty that made us cancel 2 trips already....we do love WDW,but won't pay the inflated prices to be"test guests".