The Wish Inaugural Sailing

[DCLCrazy64622]

Hi. Are we expecting sail dates to be in this upcoming batch for the Wish? I feel like I read somewhere that it wasn’t going to sail till 2022 now for some reason.

 

[Ravenclaw78]

The Wish was originally expected to be delivered in late 2021 and sail its official maiden voyage in January 2022. However, due to the pandemic halting work on the ships ahead of it in the queue (and I think I recall fire damage to the one they're currently building), it's likely delayed by at least several months.

 

[DCLCrazy64622]

The Wish was originally expected to be delivered in late 2021 and sail its official maiden voyage in January 2022. However, due to the pandemic halting work on the ships ahead of it in the queue (and I think I recall fire damage to the one they're currently building), it's likely delayed by at least several months.

I knew it was something like that. Thank you!

 

[BartmanLA]

Meyer-Werft currently is in the beginning of a 6 week total shut down for all work, they just floated out the SAGA Spirit of Adventure from Hall 5 a day or two ago, attached the funnel and she's currently pier side at the yard awaiting finishing work. But with the shut down it probably won't have any work done to it until Sept at the earliest. The Royal Caribbean ship Odyssey of The Seas is in Hall 6, but it sustained some minor fire damage from 2 recent fires in the construction areas on board, it is nearing completion and isn't scheduled for delivery until May of 2021 I believe. The midship megablock of the AIDAcosma ship is pier side outside Hall 6 where it was floated out to free up the "front" end of the dock in preparation of I believe the Wish to start laying her keel sometime near the end of the year. When the Odyssey is finished she will be floated out, and the AIDAcosma will take her place in the end position of Hall 6 for the placement of the remaining megablocks to finish fitting that ship out.

 

[T & R]

Do we think the Wish will be the only ship in the Wish class. Is DCL going to drop the additional 2 orders?

 

[DCLCrazy64622]

Do we think the Wish will be the only ship in the Wish class. Is DCL going to drop the additional 2 orders?

What I think will happen is they will go back to their original plan of two in the Wish class.

 

[JM23457]

Do we think the Wish will be the only ship in the Wish class. Is DCL going to drop the additional 2 orders?

I think it will be. At least until DCL has recovered financially, which will be a matter of years. I just don't see them building a new ship until they're firmly back on their feet, because it would be expensive to build & maintain, and because they'll probably be challenged enough filling 5 ships for quite awhile.

 

[Ravenclaw78]

Do we think the Wish will be the only ship in the Wish class. Is DCL going to drop the additional 2 orders?

As I understand it, the majority of the cost of a new class of cruise ships is in the design. Actually building the ships is comparatively cheap, so it is extremely rare not to build at least 2 of them to recoup the design costs faster. I'm not convinced the 3rd Triton class ship will be built, but the industry should be recovered enough by 2023 for them to build the 2nd. Maybe the 3rd too, if the demand is there.

 

[FigmentSpark]

Is there a chance the Wish sailings will be sold at a different time than the opening day for other sailings of the quarter?

 

[JM23457]

As I understand it, the majority of the cost of a new class of cruise ships is in the design.

I have no specialized knowledge of this, but I do find it very hard to believe that the material and labor costs of building multiple cruise ships (not to mention the cost of staffing and maintaining those ships), would be less than the cost of designing that type of ship.

I have no doubt that design is expensive, but production, staffing & maintenance must be very, very expensive, too.

 

[bcwife76]

Is there a chance the Wish sailings will be sold at a different time than the opening day for other sailings of the quarter?

I wouldn't be surprised if the first sailings for the Wish went on sale at a different time than the other four ships next itinerary release.

 

[randumb0]

I imagine they would scrap the 3rd ship and possibly the 2nd. How much money are they losing per day by not sailing? How long will it take them to recoup those losses?

 

[Starwind]

I have no specialized knowledge of this, but I do find it very hard to believe that the material and labor costs of building multiple cruise ships (not to mention the cost of staffing and maintaining those ships), would be less than the cost of designing that type of ship.

I have no doubt that design is expensive, but production, staffing & maintenance must be very, very expensive, too.

I can't confirm the accuracy of this as not my industry but some Googling... according to this presentation about the Queen Mary 2, https://silo.tips/download/the-queen-mary-2-commercial

" Complete planning and bidding process is about 10% of the cost. Therefore if a sister ship was to be ordered it would be about 10% less. "

And from this study: http://www.scaf.org.uk/library/prespaper/Undated/Procurement and Build of Modern Cruise Liners.pdf

"Cost breakdown analysis indicates the design costs for Cruise Vessels runs at around 10% of construction cost with management a further 4 %"

 

[JM23457]

" Complete planning and bidding process is about 10% of the cost. Therefore if a sister ship was to be ordered it would be about 10% less. "


"Cost breakdown analysis indicates the design costs for Cruise Vessels runs at around 10% of construction cost with management a further 4 %"

This confirms what I said. Design costs here are only 10% of the expense of a new ship. It is not anywhere close to the majority of the cost.

 

[Ravenclaw78]

This confirms what I said. Design costs here are only 10% of the expense of a new ship. It is not anywhere close to the majority of the cost.

It is entirely possible that I misremembered what I'd heard. Perhaps I was told something like "a significant percentage" (10% would certainly count as significant) and my brain at some point turned that into "the vast majority". Who knows, but regardless, I was apparently mistaken. I am certain that they said it was very rare not to build at least one sister cruise ship because they're so much cheaper to build than the first and the cruise line is able to amortize the design costs across multiple ships and several years.

 

[BartmanLA]

Development including the ship design, including the associated contractors as well in the case of a Disney ship the "Imagineers" necessary for themed venues, licensing requirements and the specialty construction for each space can really add up. I honestly think since Disney doesn't use franchisees like brand named restaurants or the like it adds to the overall cost to the ship even before they start construction.

 

[Sconny]

Did anyone get an official sail date for the Wish? I know that there is a delay at the ship yard and all of that...and read hear Jan of 2022.

But when looking at the fall dates it is strange that the Fantasy will sail Sunday thru Sunday starting 11/14/2021 thru year end 2021.

I know nothing about nothing about timing with launching a new Cruise ship...but having Saturday open in Pt Canaveral for the holidays seems a little off for Disney...also if the Wish was doing 4 and 3 nts (Like Dream) to start that would put it back in Pt Canaveral on Tuesday or Wednesday. Right Now the Dream during these times will be using Friday and Monday, Fantasy on Sundays.

So is it possible they are leaving these dates open??? I know there is new terminals being built and all of that so that might becoming into play to have all of these days open for Disney.

But having those dates for Holiday Sailings (also out of hurricane season) makes more sense then starting a new ship and being able to charge more than starting in JAN 2022 (JAN being normally one of the cheapest months to sail).

Just my thoughts...

 

[JM23457]

Did anyone get an official sail date for the Wish? I know that there is a delay at the ship yard and all of that...and read hear Jan of 2022...But when looking at the fall dates it is strange that the Fantasy will sail Sunday thru Sunday starting 11/14/2021...having Saturday open in Pt Canaveral for the holidays seems a little off for Disney...So is it possible they are leaving these dates open???

The Wish probably won't have her first public sailing until the 2nd half of 2022 at the earliest.

The likely reason Saturday is open at Port Canaveral in December 2021 is that Christmas Day is on a Saturday, and DCL knows most customers will not want to use Christmas Day as a travel day and/or muster drill day, but instead would prefer to spend all of that special holiday being pampered onboard, or at home. The Christmas week cruises are the most expensive of the year, so DCL wants to make them as attractive as possible.

There is no chance that the Wish will sail in fall/holiday season of '21. She's behind schedule, already.

 

[Sconny]

The Wish probably won't have her first public sailing until the 2nd half of 2022 at the earliest.

The likely reason Saturday is open at Port Canaveral in December 2021 is that Christmas Day is on a Saturday, and DCL knows most customers will not want to use Christmas Day as a travel day and/or muster drill day, but instead would prefer to spend all of that special holiday being pampered onboard, or at home. The Christmas week cruises are the most expensive of the year, so DCL wants to make them as attractive as possible.

There is no chance that the Wish will sail in fall/holiday season of '21. She's behind schedule, already.

Thanks...the more I look at the Magic Sailings and the open dates for Castaway go away...was WISHful thinking on my part hahaha

 

[NancyIL]

Meyer-Werft currently is in the beginning of a 6 week total shut down for all work, they just floated out the SAGA Spirit of Adventure from Hall 5 a day or two ago, attached the funnel and she's currently pier side at the yard awaiting finishing work. But with the shut down it probably won't have any work done to it until Sept at the earliest. The Royal Caribbean ship Odyssey of The Seas is in Hall 6, but it sustained some minor fire damage from 2 recent fires in the construction areas on board, it is nearing completion and isn't scheduled for delivery until May of 2021 I believe. The midship megablock of the AIDAcosma ship is pier side outside Hall 6 where it was floated out to free up the "front" end of the dock in preparation of I believe the Wish to start laying her keel sometime near the end of the year. When the Odyssey is finished she will be floated out, and the AIDAcosma will take her place in the end position of Hall 6 for the placement of the remaining megablocks to finish fitting that ship out.

I am looking forward to our b2b cruises on Odyssey of the Seas in October 2021. I'd love to sail on the Wish, but I'm pretty sure it will be like most Disney cruises - way overpriced.