The VGF 2 pricing thread

[nuhusky123]

Don’t think resale pricing is a leading indicator of anything. No one knows what vgf2 will be so today it’s just supply and demand or more likely uneducated buyers unawares of vgf2

i believe boardwalk is however a leading indicator of vgf2 pricing and associated incentives. I predict near identical pricing to boardwalk for vgf2

 

[Sandisw]

Here we are six months later, and VGF1 resale is just getting more expensive. Resale listings holding in the 190s-200s, and so much VGF1 just sitting there!

Which may indicate buyers are deciding it is too high now with VG2 around the corner if the contracts are sitting there.

 

[DVCsloth]

Which may indicate buyers are deciding it is too high now with VG2 around the corner if the contracts are sitting there.

I agree, why would you buy it resale right now for $180 or so when it will be available direct probably a little over $200? Still wish they would have made this a separate condo association. I like the Villas just how they are. Hoping they don't end up walking 1bR like they are doing with studios now. If they do I guess we will end up doing studios there and moving our 1br stays to our other home CCV. I was thinking of adding on when they started selling VGF2 but probably not going to now. One other thing, I hope they make the VGF2 points chart slightly lower. I don't think I would be as disappointed if they did. I think it would keep some of the pressure off of VGF1. Fingers crossed, I may actually consider an add on then.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Here we are six months later, and VGF1 resale is just getting more expensive. Resale listings holding in the 190s-200s, and so much VGF1 just sitting there!

I think more is just sitting in general although haven't been perusing too much. And brokers might be recommending the higher pricing since VGF can't be bought direct now.

 

[Royal Consort]

I think more is just sitting in general although haven't been perusing too much. And brokers might be recommending the higher pricing since VGF can't be bought direct now.

I am following. A lot of contracts are sitting there for a while. Doesn't seem that sellers will budge either. Small contracts in the $220 pp range which I think is ridiculous. I am waiting for direct.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Here we are six months later, and VGF1 resale is just getting more expensive. Resale listings holding in the 190s-200s, and so much VGF1 just sitting there!

With all of the prices rising in every area of Disney, it is no surprise contracts are sitting. Don’t let that fool you. Disney will absolutely price the new VGF high. They don’t care how soon it sells out. They love the fact the resale prices are high. Why not buy direct fo a little more? We should know very soon.

 

[davidl81]

I am following. A lot of contracts are sitting there for a while. Doesn't seem that sellers will budge either. Small contracts in the $220 pp range which I think is ridiculous. I am waiting for direct.

You also have to remember that a lot of resale buyers likely have no idea that VGF2 is even a thing. All they know is they need/want more points, Disney direct is sold out today, and resale is the only option.

 

[DKZB]

You also have to remember that a lot of resale buyers likely have no idea that VGF2 is even a thing. All they know is they need/want more points, Disney direct is sold out today, and resale is the only option.

No way I would be paying $180 - $200 right now for resale with VGF2 right around the corner.

That said, how much would you pay for resale today given the uncertainty?

 

[davidl81]

No way I would be paying $180 - $200 right now for resale with VGF2 right around the corner.

That said, how much would you pay for resale today given the uncertainty?

But if you didn’t know that VGF2 was right around the corner what would you pay? As I said I would imagine their are a lot of current VGF owners who don’t know VGF2 is happening.

 

[DKZB]

But if you didn’t know that VGF2 was right around the corner what would you pay? As I said I would imagine their are a lot of current VGF owners who don’t know VGF2 is happening.

I would probably pay as high as $170-$175 as a VGF buyer if VGF2 were not in the picture. In my mind there are a couple pieces of uncertainty that an educated buyer needs to account for:

1. What will Disney sell VGF 2 for direct?
2. How will VGF 2 change secondary market VGF Pricing near term?
3. Will 2 million extra points cause supply/demand for VGF to go lower long term?

The only argument for higher VGF resale prices short term is a Direct pricing on VGF2 at $240-$275 after incentives.

 

[RoseGold]

I would probably pay as high as $170-$175 as a VGF buyer if VGF2 were not in the picture.

VGF hasn't been that low for a long time.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-october-2021/

 

[BWV Dreamin]

The only argument for higher VGF resale prices short term is a Direct pricing on VGF2 at $240-$275 after incentives.

Is where I suspect pricing will start around.

 

[Sandisw]

I would probably pay as high as $170-$175 as a VGF buyer if VGF2 were not in the picture. In my mind there are a couple pieces of uncertainty that an educated buyer needs to account for:

1. What will Disney sell VGF 2 for direct?
2. How will VGF 2 change secondary market VGF Pricing near term?
3. Will 2 million extra points cause supply/demand for VGF to go lower long term?

The only argument for higher VGF resale prices short term is a Direct pricing on VGF2 at $240-$275 after incentives.

And, it doesn't make sense for DVD to start VGF that high. But, having said that, DVD doesn't make decisions that seem to make sense for some of us anyway. I still think what we will see is a raise of RIV to $210 base price in February and then in March or April, when they announce VGF2 sales, its base price will be around $230/point with incentives that bring both it and RIV very close in price.

I just wish they would announce soon and put all of us here on the boards out of our misery so we can see which camp is closer to its really selling price!!! LOL

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Glad I bought when I did. I would not buy at today's prices. I would buy a condo instead. These price points are high.

 

[kandlsutton]

VGF hasn't been that low for a long time.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-october-2021/

Got a 55pointer for $175 in August. Worth the risk for us since we just want a few nights every other year.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Here we are six months later, and VGF1 resale is just getting more expensive. Resale listings holding in the 190s-200s, and so much VGF1 just sitting there!

I don’t think my read of the situation is that it’s getting more expensive. It’s that sellers are greedy and buyers aren’t having it.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I think more is just sitting in general although haven't been perusing too much. And brokers might be recommending the higher pricing since VGF can't be bought direct now.

That’s my read. There’s almost 1100 DVC contracts for sale across all sites right now. In May there were less than 300.

Of the 52 VGF contracts on the market right now, 36 are more than 2 weeks old, 27 are over a month old, and 19 are 2+ months old.

Of the 16 posted 15 are sub $200, and 5 are $191 or lower.

 

[pirate33]

It’s that sellers are greedy and buyers aren’t having it.

I don’t agree with this philosphy. Current owners are not under an obligation to sell at a price that buyers currently want to pay; i.e., they don’t have to “make a market” if they don’t want to. It’s perfectly fine for a seller to believe it’s only worth it to me to sell right now for $X, even if no buyer is biting at that price.

 

[nuhusky123]

I don’t think my read of the situation is that it’s getting more expensive. It’s that sellers are greedy and buyers aren’t having it.

I agree. Anyone with half a brain will wait for vgf2. Sellers or brokers expecting to get these crazy prices must ride Peter Pan too often

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I don’t agree with this philosphy. Current owners are not under an obligation to sell at a price that buyers currently want to pay; i.e., they don’t have to “make a market” if they don’t want to. It’s perfectly fine for a seller to believe it’s only worth it to me to sell right now for $X, even if no buyer is biting at that price.

Of course but it’s literally a commodity item so pricing significantly above the market means you’ll never sell. It’s wasting the brokers time and resources.