The VGF 2 pricing thread

[Ssplashhmtn]

how does dvc support having 1 resort cost more than their other resorts. is riv less of a resort therefore worth less money?

yes

 

[Lorana]

Regarding the part in bold, can you please clarify where you have found it?
The POS always talks about balancing Vacation homes and units. The Florida law always talks about Timeshare Units. I have never found a requirement regarding the whole resort.
The need to balance the whole resort was a common (I think) misconception shared on this board at the time the SSR THV reallocation was done, that's one of the reson no one complained. But I've not found it anywhere in legal documents, which doesn't mean it doesn't exist. I have always found only reference to a classic timeshare with weeks sold and for point systems just a few sentences. I have not been able to find any detailed regulation about point systems in Florida law.

@drubsa lays out the legal arguments very well in two other posts:
https://www.disboards.com/threads/f...the-point-charts.3811362/page-2#post-62278348https://www.disboards.com/threads/2023-point-charts-released.3862115/post-63603584
First, DVC marketed and sold their system based on point values never changing. There is legal precedence (if cases ruled in favor of owners) that doing so requires you to abide by those terms.

Second, the point system represents ownership to a unit (defined in pos, master declaration and your contract), which represents the amount of time you can reserve in your unit for a year. FL statues require 1-for-1, meaning that there cannot be more nights available to book in a year than 365 (nor less); your ownership must represent your ownership. The POS lays out the rules for the guaranteed minimum # of points to book a Villa type and defines that if seasons were flattened, all rooms would cost the same - thus, that guaranteed point cost must represent the flattened per night cost, which therefore represents the points to book all nights in the resort for the year. Points declared literally equals the points required to book all units for 365 days per year, per the terms of the POS, and FL statute therefore also requires that those points must be consistent year over year, as those points represent the 1-for-1 ownership. Some people argue declared points and point charts aren’t the same; legally, however, that’s not true. The POS is very explicit that points represent ownership which represents your ability to book your owned interest in the resort, and that because points represent ownership, the declared points equal the total points to book all rooms in a resort in a year. Thus, declared points must represent total points in point charts, normal calendar variations (such as leap year and number of weekend nights) as an exception.

Note: I’m not a lawyer. I’d also recommend reading drubsa’s posts as he lays it out better than my very quick attempt at replying to explain a complicated subject.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Can you expand on what you are thinking? Do you think it will be $207?

Yes that is my guess at least assuming it does go on sale in the Feb-April timeframe. And I'd expect them to do a big marketing campaign for current owners with good sized discounts to kick off the sales.

 

[DVCPAT]

how does dvc support having 1 resort cost more than their other resorts. is riv less of a resort therefore worth less money?

my money remains on $207

Look at what RIV and GFV are selling for in the resale market. GFV is selling for $40-$50 more than RIV. …Thats the market speaking. Disney was also selling GFV points at approx the same level above RIV. Disney is going to price GFV2 based on its location to MK. RIV is near Bonnet Creek… it’s not a prime location.

 

[nuhusky123]

Look at what RIV and GFV are selling for in the resale market. GFV is selling for $40-$50 more than RIV. …Thats the market speaking. Disney was also selling GFV points at approx the same level above RIV. Disney is going to price GFV2 based on its location to MK. RIV is near Bonnet Creek… it’s not a prime location.

you can’t use resale market as an indicator of price, you are comparing a sold out resort to an active resort

the law of supply and demand are in play. Riv has lots of supply so prices reflect

gfv supply is limited to resale market only so prices can be set higher

basic economics dude

 

[DVCPAT]

you can’t use resale market as an indicator of price, you are comparing a sold out resort to an active resort

the law of supply and demand are in play. Riv has lots of supply so prices reflect

gfv supply is limited to resale market only so prices can be set higher

basic economics dude

I would say points are always available. Disney can acquire them at will.
Keep in mind MK is the most popular theme park in the world. Disney will price the resort as if it’s walking distance to the most popular theme park in the world…dude

 

[JETSDAD]

I would say points are always available. Disney can acquire them at will.
Keep in mind MK is the most popular theme park in the world. Disney will price the resort as if it’s walking distance to the most popular theme park in the world…dude

They were only selling 1000-2000 pts/month at VGF at the sold out pricing. They will need to sell far more than that when they go live with the new building.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Look at what RIV and GFV are selling for in the resale market. GFV is selling for $40-$50 more than RIV. …Thats the market speaking. Disney was also selling GFV points at approx the same level above RIV. Disney is going to price GFV2 based on its location to MK. RIV is near Bonnet Creek… it’s not a prime location.

Riviera has no ability to use at other resorts resale. VGF can be used at 14 resorts. It’s an incomparable product.

in any case, my thinking is that Disney will price to move, not price to maximize, because they have another DVC coming online ~10-15 months later, and they will almost certainly launch DHV with 3 other resorts in active sales, a situation they will want to minimize the duration of.

Because the margins are so big to begin with, DVC maximizes revenue by doing as much as possible, not by charging as high a price as possible.

 

[nuhusky123]

I would say points are always available. Disney can acquire them at will.
Keep in mind MK is the most popular theme park in the world. Disney will price the resort as if it’s walking distance to the most popular theme park in the world…dude

no polite way to say this but you are wrong

disney cannot produce new supply for gfv until gfv2. Let’s say they sold 1m points in gfv1. That number is not going to get bigger, nor will it get smaller. Thereby supply is limited

price Can be set by other conditions such as location. But the biggest driver of price is supply. you have lots of supply, price will be lower. You have less supply price can be higher

 

[DVCPAT]

They were only selling 1000-2000 pts/month at VGF at the sold out pricing. They will need to sell far more than that when they go live with the new building.

Disney was not pushing GFV points and steered buyers toward active sale resorts. That won’t be the case when GFV2 goes on sale

Riviera has no ability to use at other resorts resale. VGF can be used at 14 resorts. It’s an incomparable product.

in any case, my thinking is that Disney will price to move, not price to maximize, because they have another DVC coming online ~10-15 months later, and they will almost certainly launch DHV with 3 other resorts in active sales, a situation they will want to minimize the duration of.

Because the margins are so big to begin with, DVC maximizes revenue by doing as much as possible, not by charging as high a price as possible.

i agree.. other factors hurt RIV. They spent a ton of money on gondolas to overcome the location. I don’t see Disney pricing GFV2 at or near what resales are selling for.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Look at what RIV and GFV are selling for in the resale market. GFV is selling for $40-$50 more than RIV. …Thats the market speaking. Disney was also selling GFV points at approx the same level above RIV. Disney is going to price GFV2 based on its location to MK. RIV is near Bonnet Creek… it’s not a prime location.

The markets are not actually the same though. VGF hasn't been for sale direct for several months so resale is the only way to get points there. ie the supply side is restricted compared to Riviera.

We have yet to see DVC really differentiate on base price of current resorts they have for sale. A little different incentive here and there but that's generally been it for difference the majority of the time. They don't want to say one is better or worse than the other as all they really care about is selling points for a profit.

 

[DVCPAT]

no polite way to say this but you are wrong

disney cannot produce new supply for gfv until gfv2. Let’s say they sold 1m points in gfv1. That number is not going to get bigger, nor will it get smaller. Thereby supply is limited

price Can be set by other conditions such as location. But the biggest driver of price is supply. you have lots of supply, price will be lower. You have less supply price can be higher

We’ll see if I’m wrong. I’ve been wrong before. I’d like to be wrong and see Disney curb inflation. One thing I noticed last week in WDW is a lot of families with grandpa and grandma. They have money and love To be near the theme parks.

 

[nuhusky123]

Don’t get me wrong, price can be set higher due to location or name brand of gfv. but Using resale market as price indicator is a false metric

 

[davidl81]

Why would Disney not do the same thing they have done every other time they bring a new resort online, price it for the exact same base price as the other scribe resort they will be replacing?

 

[DVCPAT]

Don’t get me wrong, price can be set higher due to location or name brand of gfv. but Using resale market as price indicator is a false metric

Can you give one example of a timeshare developer selling new contract within 5% of the resale market?

 

[Paul Stupin]

If DVC were to price GFV in a substantially higher range than Riviera, with two million points to sell, they wouldn’t sell any! And they’ll make a ton with the 150 point minimum no matter what the price.

But since the best price will be incentive based for higher point purchases, I’m not convinced pricing will go down much for smaller point contracts on the resale market.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Can you give one example of a timeshare developer selling new contract within 5% of the resale market?

I don’t think the comparison is applicable here. DVC is unique in the timeshare world. Can you give me one example of a timeshare other than Disney that even has a resale market anywhere near as robust? But the resale market volume is insignificant in comparison to the amount of points Disney will be selling. They have to price them to move.

If anything, your argument might indicate a downward trend in resale contract prices once VGF2 goes on sale.

I also don’t think there’s any timeshare out there for sale under similar circumstances.

 

[DVCPAT]

If DVC were to price GFV in a substantially higher range than Riviera, with two million points to sell, they wouldn’t sell any! And they’ll make a ton with the 150 point minimum no matter what the price.

But since the best price will be incentive based for higher point purchases, I’m not convinced pricing will go down much for smaller point contracts on the resale market.

I’m curious, when you bought into DVC, did you ask how many points remain in this resort?? I’ve bought a few contracts and that question never entered my mind.

 

[DVCPAT]

I don’t think the comparison is applicable here. DVC is unique in the timeshare world. Can you give me one example of a timeshare other than Disney that even has a resale market anywhere near as robust?

If anything, your argument might indicate a downward trend in resale contract prices once VGF2 goes on sale.

I also don’t think there’s any timeshare out there for sale under similar circumstances.

DVC price will always correlate with resort room rates. If a resort has a following and is located next to the most popular theme park in the world, people will pay a premium. Disney approves each resale… they know what people will pay.

 

[Paul Stupin]

DVC price will always correlate with resort room rates. If a resort has a following and is located next to the most popular theme park in the world, people will pay a premium. Disney approves each resale… they know what people will pay.

Agreed And they know what people won’t pay as well.