The Expert
Has been to every Disney park in the world
- Joined
- Nov 8, 2009
- Messages
- 4,395
It's a fantastic question. At its core, the question is, "How do I get faster?"
First thing I'd do is determine reasonable expectations. Based on the research I've read, and a small collection of data from runners here on the DIS, an average expectation is a 20-30% increase in VDOT from your first race. So go here (link) and type in your first race. It'll give you a VDOT value, like 30.8 for someone who runs their first race as a 30 min 5k. From there, multiply that value by 1.2 to 1.3. So a person with a 30.8 gets a value of 36.9-40. I'd then go back into the VDOT calculator and find what 5k equals a 36.9-40 value (25:50-24:05). So a reasonable expectation is that someone who started off as a 30:00 min 5k runner could become maximally a 24:05-25:50 runner if they see an average response to training in their lifetime. Now, there are obvious caveats to this. There are people who respond more and less to training over their lifetimes. From the limited data from the DIS, we saw some runners do thousands of miles of training and years of effort, and improve by 5%. We saw others do similar volume and similar time and improve by 74%. So an individual's response will vary from the average response. The average just gives you a good general idea.
This comes just as I was looking up information for my local Half and wondering if I could possibly improve my time from a 2:42 to a 2:30 for POT. According to the VDOT calculation, I have it in me. But is there enough time between now and April? That 2:42 was in November 2019, too. But if I hadn't been holding back for the full, I feel like I could have kept up the pace we were doing to get to the castle before sunrise this past weekend. For those first five miles, we were doing 90(run)/30(walk) intervals and had 13 minute miles with a few quick stops. Is it reasonable to think I could get to 11:30 miles and sustain them for the full 13.1 by April 23rd??
ETA: Feel free to take this to DM if you feel it isn't useful for everyone.