The Rumor Tracking Thread

[osufeth24]

I also think we have to look at reality. At best a vaccine won't be spread and usable until summer of 2021 at best. Makes setting up 2022 makes sense. It will take that long before everyone really trusts to travel, and begin spreading out again.
Disney can't make money on those expenses if folks aren't in the park to use them.

there's def going to be vaccines by the end of the year. Will it be widespread, no. But it's a start. Q1 2021 you'll see it much more widespread and possibly enough to do the entire US population.

There's a good chance Pfizer will have roughly 20mil by end of year.

And between Novafax, Pfizer, and Moderna should cover most of the population by end of Q1

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Right which I noted in a later post. The big question is how quickly and recently will that experience fill up. Also when it opens depending on the time frame will they even be able to have all the experiences?

maybe I misunderstood your point - I htought you said comparing Tron to the Poly room updates wasn't apples to apples but comparing it the Star Wars hotel was ... when I see the Star Wars hotel as the one that makes the most sense to work on right now than either of the others

 

[rteetz]

maybe I misunderstood your point - I htought you said comparing Tron to the Poly room updates wasn't apples to apples but comparing it the Star Wars hotel was ... when I see the Star Wars hotel as the one that makes the most sense to work on right now than either of the others

Yes that is what I was saying but like I said in a later post from a business POV it does make more sense to work on the SW hotel. The poly refurb I don't consider apples to apples because its more out of necessity than just because. The GCH building needs some structural work and it just happens the rooms are on their refurb cycle so just get it all done now.

 

[Phicinfan]

Universal seems to have no problems building a major coaster right now. I for one fully understand delays. The fact that this rumor indicates a stoppage of work for months doesn't make sense to me. I get not wanting to open an attraction right now but they also shouldn't be waiting well over a year either. If this is true I think it is absolutely dumb.

Dumb it may be but it is believable to me. My question is when is the cost spent? If they can save some cash by delaying the finish of these rides, it makes sense. Opening them up to limited crowds is a waste, if you ask me. Lets do a time line.

Lets say, just to open discussions a vaccine is first released summer of 2021. By the time it gets fully sent out and everyone can get access that wants it, then you are talking late fall 2021. Then there is always a short period of worry, that the virus mutates or the vaccine isn't effective. So Early 2022 allows for that period.

Now. lets act like Disney. I have millions of dollars on rides that will ONLY be accessed by limited folks until at best late 2021 or early 2022. Why not instead, sit on those costs, get rides enclosed, and then finish them and have them ready to open in 2022 and not have to post more layoffs or shorts on payments.

It seems to make sense to me

 

[Phicinfan]

there's def going to be vaccines by the end of the year. Will it be widespread, no. But it's a start. Q1 2021 you'll see it much more widespread and possibly enough to do the entire US population.

There's a good chance Pfizer will have roughly 20mil by end of year.

And between Novafax, Pfizer, and Moderna should cover most of the population by end of Q1

Last I heard with the two delays on Phizer and one other - summer 2021 was earliest to expect vaccine

 

[rteetz]

Dumb it may be but it is believable to me. My question is when is the cost spent? If they can save some cash by delaying the finish of these rides, it makes sense. Opening them up to limited crowds is a waste, if you ask me. Lets do a time line.

Lets say, just to open discussions a vaccine is first released summer of 2021. By the time it gets fully sent out and everyone can get access that wants it, then you are talking late fall 2021. Then there is always a short period of worry, that the virus mutates or the vaccine isn't effective. So Early 2022 allows for that period.

Now. lets act like Disney. I have millions of dollars on rides that will ONLY be accessed by limited folks until at best late 2021 or early 2022. Why not instead, sit on those costs, get rides enclosed, and then finish them and have them ready to open in 2022 and not have to post more layoffs or shorts on payments.

It seems to make sense to me

I didn't say I didn't believe it. I do still remain skeptical that they would wait that long.

First released summer 2021? That seems fairly late by many projections.

Also Disney, I have a park that desperately needs things for people to do. They are not going to hold Ratatouille until 2022.

 

[sachilles]

Given how they handled rise of the resistance, open early as beta testing to work bugs out before the "grand opening" at a special time. It would go against Disney tradition, but if the ride was safe and usable but some of the smaller details weren't 100% let it run to eat some crowds and tweek it. Just be upfront that it's "pre-opening testing". Given that most of the guests are DVC or AP holders right now.....it could be the ultimate perk.

 

[DisneyPigFan]

there's def going to be vaccines by the end of the year. Will it be widespread, no. But it's a start. Q1 2021 you'll see it much more widespread and possibly enough to do the entire US population.

There's a good chance Pfizer will have roughly 20mil by end of year.

And between Novafax, Pfizer, and Moderna should cover most of the population by end of Q1

We don't know that. Sure, it seems likely there will be at least one vaccine given an Emergency Use Authorization (which is NOT the same thing as getting full approval) by the end of the year. But even that is not guaranteed.

Everyone being able to get one who wants one by the end of Q1 is an awfully rosy prediction. Maybe -- if everything goes perfectly. But we just don't know yet.

And you're gonna have A LOT of people who won't trust any vaccine at first.

This is uncharted territory.

 

[Brianstl]

Universal seems to have no problems building a major coaster right now. I for one fully understand delays. The fact that this rumor indicates a stoppage of work for months doesn't make sense to me. I get not wanting to open an attraction right now but they also shouldn't be waiting well over a year either. If this is true I think it is absolutely dumb.

Comcast doesn’t have close to the cash flow problems Disney has from COVID. Disney’s revenues were down almost 50% year over year last quarter.

 

[rteetz]

Comcast doesn’t have close to the cash flow problems Disney has from COVID. Disney’s revenues were down almost 50% year over year last quarter.

Right but it’s not like Disney is on the brink either.

 

[Brianstl]

They have taken on a lot of debt and also have massive cash reserves. They aren't on the outs. They could finish the Tron coaster if they really wanted to. It's the 50th anniversary and it doesn't look good having a construction site at that time. We may be lucky to have parades or fireworks back. If not, it's going to be a bit of a downer for the celebrations. Having brand new ride open would be something. Maybe Chapek needs to stop the penny pinching at the expense of magic for the paying guests. If things are that bad, why refurb the Poly? Wouldn't it make sense to put that money into the parks? Put it towards salaries of parkworkers? Refurbing a hotel can wait.

The cash reserves are a result of debt they took on after the shutdown. They need those reserves to fund operations and make interest payments of near $500 million per quarter on previous debt. Plus, add on to that interest on their new debt.

It is easy to say that the can use cash on hand to complete projects, but we don’t know how bad Disney really believes the next 18 to 24 months will be.

 

[Brianstl]

Dumb it may be but it is believable to me. My question is when is the cost spent? If they can save some cash by delaying the finish of these rides, it makes sense. Opening them up to limited crowds is a waste, if you ask me. Lets do a time line.

Lets say, just to open discussions a vaccine is first released summer of 2021. By the time it gets fully sent out and everyone can get access that wants it, then you are talking late fall 2021. Then there is always a short period of worry, that the virus mutates or the vaccine isn't effective. So Early 2022 allows for that period.

Now. lets act like Disney. I have millions of dollars on rides that will ONLY be accessed by limited folks until at best late 2021 or early 2022. Why not instead, sit on those costs, get rides enclosed, and then finish them and have them ready to open in 2022 and not have to post more layoffs or shorts on payments.

It seems to make sense to me

I wonder with this stuff coming out today says about how bookings for the remainder of 2021 went the the first couple of days at the end of last week. A real lack of demand may have convinced Disney that revenues are going to remain very low for all of 2021 and even into 2022.

 

[Jrb1979]

Right but it’s not like Disney is on the brink either.

No they aren't going bankrupt but they obviously are in cost cutting mode right now. So them delaying Tron and Guardians is not a surprise. I'm more surprised that people don't believe it to be the case. They aren't interested in spending a lot of money til things get better.

 

[Runnsally]

there's def going to be vaccines by the end of the year. Will it be widespread, no. But it's a start. Q1 2021 you'll see it much more widespread and possibly enough to do the entire US population.

There's a good chance Pfizer will have roughly 20mil by end of year.

And between Novafax, Pfizer, and Moderna should cover most of the population by end of Q1

this is a beyond unrealistic interpretation of current vaccine development

I agree that when Disney looks at the big picture waiting for 2022 makes sense

 

[Farro]

this is a beyond unrealistic interpretation of current vaccine development

I agree that when Disney looks at the big picture waiting for 2022 makes sense

Nobody knows when a vaccine will come. No one. Anything anyone says is a guess.

And we dont even really know if they are waiting until 2022.

 

[rteetz]

No they aren't going bankrupt but they obviously are in cost cutting mode right now. So them delaying Tron and Guardians is not a surprise. I'm more surprised that people don't believe it to be the case. They aren't interested in spending a lot of money til things get better.

I am not surprised by a delay. I am surprised by the length and context. I think a full stoppage on work from December 2020 - October 2021 is absurd.

 

[Runnsally]

Nobody knows when a vaccine will come. No one. Anything anyone says is a guess.

And we dont even really know if they are waiting until 2022.

There is a better chance we see a fifth gate Q1 2021 than enough vaccine for the entire US population.

 

[Farro]

There is a better chance we see a fifth gate Q1 2021 than enough vaccine for the entire US population.

Doesn't mean it's not going to be until 2022 until we start seeing some normalcy again.

For some people just knowing a vaccine is approved may get them traveling again. Power of suggestion is real.

I'm not ready to throw away 2021 just yet. It would be ridiculous if Disney suspended all work on those rides until Fall 2021.

And for what it's worth, the entire population will NEVER be vaccinated anyways.

 

[middlechild]

Tron delays means railroad cant run. Signature attraction down for another year?

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Tron delays means railroad cant run. Signature attraction down for another year?

I don't know if it means they can't get the railroad up and running - they said they will be finishing the outside of Tron so they could them work on the train

Not saying they will (more $ to spend) but they could