The Poly2 Pricing Thread

[emchen]

Who else wonders where the poll would stand if @KimMcGowan opened it back up?

64% to 36% in favor of same association as of May 2022. Guesses for October 2023?

I feel like most of the clues we’ve seen in the past couple months (someone’s DVC contact said it would be the same then walked it back, and the corporate filing calling them Polynesian villas comes to mind) suggest it’s more likely to be the same association—but I personally think they may not have made a final decision.

I feel like it would flip to favor “separate associations”.

 

[FlyingDonut]

I had wondered the same. Might be fun to make a new poll? I think it would be much closer to 50/50 split. 55/45 something like that. I'm still thinking it's a new association but honestly flip a coin at this point.

Can we do a "what would you prefer?" poll too?

I'd really like to know how preference breaks down between poly 1 owners and probable poly 2 buyers, but that gets into a whole surey.

 

[GGGT]

Who else wonders where the poll would stand if @KimMcGowan opened it back up?

64% to 36% in favor of same association as of May 2022. Guesses for October 2023?

I would change my vote from Same to New.

 

[Ruttangel]

This poll was not long after VGF was launched and so could have swayed some opinion.
I would be surprised if it’s same association, but regardless of that I would expect it to keep similar point charts for standard studios a bit like CCV and BRV.
It can then launch duo studios as cheaper and add Theme Park View as more than existing PVB lake view points.
Keeping same association would drive up demand for PVB resale and that doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.
It would also frustrate RIV owners who accepted restrictions were the new model but then 2 projects come along unrestricted, leaving them as WDW outliers (until cabins probably).

 

[zavandor]

I'm not very familiar with the Poly. Why people say the new tower could be a Theme Park view and not Lake view?
Cannot you see the fireworks from the existing lake view studios? Is it better?

 

[Minniemoo15]

I'm not very familiar with the Poly. Why people say the new tower could be a Theme Park view and not Lake view?
Cannot you see the fireworks from the existing lake view studios? Is it better?

Current lake view studios can have obstructed views of the fireworks due to the bungalows right in front of them, especially if you are on the 1st or 2nd floor.

 

[thelionqueen]

We are in the same boat. We are hoping it’s another association because I don’t want to compete with all the bungalow/studio points for one bedrooms. That’s why I’m holding out from VGF too, the resort studios really put pressure on booking one bedrooms.

However, I am fine with the restrictions at Riviera. I don’t plan on selling ever but I doubt we would have a problem with selling if we did. We have small contracts at RIV and with boardwalk/beach club going offline sooner than rather RIV as a Epcot resort is going to look really good.

You can get certain BWV & BCV won’t be “going offline” ever! The OG contracts are still 19 years from expiring (a VERY long time), and Disney will repurpose them without any question at all. Arguably some of the most valuable resort real estate at WDW.

I don’t consider RIV an Epcot resort, just a resort. Its value is in the owners eyes, as with all others as well. I don’t believe the contract end date will ad any significant value to RIV; BCV & BWV Aren’t going anywhere

 

[zavandor]

Current lake view studios can have obstructed views of the fireworks due to the bungalows right in front of them, especially if you are on the 1st or 2nd floor.

But is DVC going to say: "this view is better that the other view which we sold as lake view but really can be s**t".

 

[Sandisw]

I feel like most of the clues we’ve seen in the past couple months (someone’s DVC contact said it would be the same then walked it back, and the corporate filing calling them Polynesian villas comes to mind) suggest it’s more likely to be the same association—but I personally think they may not have made a final decision.

They filed paperwork to start FW. It appear the official name will be The Cabins at Fort Wilderness. The slide in that presentation just said FW cabins. So, I am not sure that the name used on the slides means anything since they didn’t use the cabins official name either

I am still think we are looking at new.

 

[GoingSince1990]

My prediction is still same association, mostly because the existing PVB with only studios and bungalows is by far the most weirdly unbalanced DVC in existence, and the new tower would round off the rooms balance nicely, with a ton of existing PVB owners eager to add on because their families have grown and they want larger room options. Also it gives Disney a handy excuse to make the expiration date years earlier than it would be for a new association. As well as allowing them to put photos of the bungalows in the sales materials, private plunge pools sparkling in the sun (which I suspect is the main reason for those pools’ existence). Having said that, we all know from experience that Disney often makes choices that appear not to be rational, and they have clearly decided to keep their options open for now.

 

[maui22]

They filed paperwork to start FW. It appear the official name will be The Cabins at Fort Wilderness. The slide in that presentation just said FW cabins. So, I am not sure that the name used on the slides means anything since they didn’t use the cabins official name either

I am still think we are looking at new.

Is Disney still saying CFW will be the 17th association like they have in the past?

 

[maui22]

https://wdwnt.com/2023/09/photos-in...b-tower-at-disneys-polynesian-village-resort/

Based on images showing the elevator shaft, looks like the top two floors may have exclusive elevator key access. Reminds me of BLT's GV room access. I don't think they will have any restaurant/lounge on those floors because artist renderings don't appear to show anything except rooms.

 

[gmi3804]

Are we really on page 84 of people speculating (mostly) about whether there's going to be a new HOA?

 

[Powerline13]

Are we really on page 84 of people speculating (mostly) about whether there's going to be a new HOA?

One of the best recent threads on here.

 

[gmi3804]

One of the best recent threads on here.

Lordy. I keep thinking there's some update on the Poly2 pricing (which is what the thread it titled), and BAM! More speculation about separate or same HOAs!

 

[GoingSince1990]

Are we really on page 84 of people speculating (mostly) about whether there's going to be a new HOA?

My dear, sweet child, that’s what we DO here!

 

[Jwaire]

I don’t believe the contract end date will ad any significant value to RIV; BCV & BWV Aren’t going anywhere

This doesn't make much sense. Obviously, as time goes on and RIV finally sells out, its future contract expiration will come into play in terms of resale pricing.

Just as BCV and BWV's resale values will begin to decline—likely sharply the last 10 years or so.

 

[Genie+]

Who else wonders where the poll would stand if @KimMcGowan opened it back up?

64% to 36% in favor of same association as of May 2022. Guesses for October 2023?

This is a great idea! Maybe the poll could include percentages.

New Association 100%
New Association 80% - Same Asscoiation 20%
New Association 60% - Same Association 40%
——————-—- 50% - 50%
Same Association 60% - New Association 40%
Same Association 80% - New Association 20%
Same Association 100%

The bold would get my vote.

 

[Mikey15]

This doesn't make much sense. Obviously, as time goes on and RIV finally sells out, its future contract expiration will come into play in terms of resale pricing.

Just as BCV and BWV's resale values will begin to decline—likely sharply the last 10 years or so.

They’ll start to decline… aaaannny day now…

Honestly, while my spreadsheet told me longer expiry resorts make the most financial sense… that’s only because I was enough of a bean counter to make a spreadsheet! BCV and BWV have persisted because at the end of the day, people desire the ability to book those resorts, and SAPs from somewhere else don’t always get you there. It might not be a great deal, but I see people still wanting their BCV/BWV studios and 2-bedrooms well into the 2030s… enough to not bother selling, and enough for the diminishing time contracts to still sell for more than they “should.”

DVC equivalent of buying Taylor Swift tickets on StubHub.

The decline in VB/HHI has been sharper, not necessarily due to 2042 expiry but thanks to significantly higher MFs making them a poor SAP deal. Similar effect can be seen at OKW, which has high-ish MF, so even its 2057 contracts don’t command ~that~ big a premium over 2042.

Honestly, my speculation is that it’s BRV that will see the sharpest expiry date related decline, since CCV is similar accommodations at the same resort but with the longer expiry. I think BCV/BWV are better insulated. Location, location, location.

 

[Roughians_satchel]

Is Disney still saying CFW will be the 17th association like they have in the past?

Yes they are - but people think this is because they expect it to go on sale and open earlier in 2024 than Poly2.

Honestly, I think their silence on the same/different association has to do with timing - they could announce right away with GFV because it was such a quick turnaround. With the Poly, they're building a whole new tower. If they announced it right away in 2022 - it would be a 2.5 year head start for resale and cut significantly into new sales once it came online.

I also feel, as a current Poly owner, that it's the biggest slap-in-the-face if they go with a different association. While they never promised an expansion, there were actual talks of adding a tower someday. Now that someday has come, they're building a tower on Poly property, using same resources, but it's not for current owners????