The Poly2 Pricing Thread

[paslaugh]

Ugh, if so I will never be a direct owner. I've been counting on a super good release price for Poly2, like around $175pp. If it's more than $200, I'll just stay a white card pleb forever. These direct prices are ridiculous.

I never thought I’d own direct, but the VGF2 at $186pp for 200 points was too good to pass up last year. I really hope Poly2 is the same condo association as to not devalue the 225 resale points I have there that I purchased in the $140s.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Ugh, if so I will never be a direct owner. I've been counting on a super good release price for Poly2, like around $175pp. If it's more than $200, I'll just stay a white card pleb forever. These direct prices are ridiculous.

Oh there’s no way it will be as low as $175. By the time it opens the general base price will probably be $235-$240. Even at $40 off it would barely be under $200.

 

[Ssplashhmtn]

I actually think the current economy MAY play a part in the association decision. I think right now they are planning on it being in the same association as Poly 1. Why would I think this? The presentation were it said Polynesian Villas and Bungalows. They are a major corporation and do not make that mistake. However, if prices on resale keep dropping they will be forced to make it a different association just to be able to control the price.

Sorry not following this part “The presentation were it said Polynesian Villas and Bungalows. They are a major corporation and do not make that mistake”. Maybe I need to read more of the thread. What presentation and how does that imply the same association?

 

[Sandisw]

I am not sure what you are saying here.

Riviera has been in active sales since 2019 and its price has gone up 4 times in those 3 years. (188 to 217)
Aulani has been in active sales since 2010 and its price has gone up 18 times in those 12 years. (114 to 217)
VGF2 has been in active sales since 2022 and the active price went up to 207 right when it went on sale and went up again to 217 later that same year.

The data shows that over the past decade, DVC has raised the price on active sales every 8 months, on average.
That includes a slowdown during the pandemic. (pre-pandemic, 2010-2018, the average was every 6.8 months)
If this established trend continues, the next raise should be this summer, followed by another at the end of this year or very early next year.

I very much wish for the pricing to hold where it is for as long as possible, but I can't see DVC changing its pattern unless sales start to fall way, way off.
Even then, I believe they will still raise the prices, but increase the incentives as needed to compensate.

.

The price was just raised from $207 to $217 in December...the typically raise in price is about a year later.

RIV went to $207 in February of 2022 and VGF came on sale at $207 in March...there was no rise in VGF price...it was actually reduced from sold out price.

Then in December, about 10 months after the active sales resorts went to $207, it went to $217...that was a little sooner than normal.

So, I do not see them doing another $10 increase this soon, at least for RIV, VGF, and Aulani...and I think we will see VDH start there.

 

[Sandisw]

Sorry not following this part “The presentation were it said Polynesian Villas and Bungalows. They are a major corporation and do not make that mistake”. Maybe I need to read more of the thread. What presentation and how does that imply the same association?

The presentation at the DVC condo meeting had reference to the expansion being at Polynesian Villas and Bungalows. All previous statements, including the wording on the DVC website indicate an expansion of Disney's Polynesion Resort which is the complex and not specific to DVC.

So, that wording has made people wonder if it was a subtle hint that it will be the same association.

 

[aka Charles]

I do think you are putting too much stock on the verbage included in the video. This has been discussed in the VDH thread. There is precedent to think nothing of that verbage: this same thing happened when VGF2 was teased (before we knew the actual price). Many people were doing similar calculations based on the numbers included in the boiler plate message and that turned out to be wrong. What ended up happening was that the resort began sales at the same base price as other active sales resorts and there was no last minute increase on the base price. Look at the old VGF2 pricing threads and you'll see.

I am just taking what little DVC information that has been coming out so far this year, combining it with the historical trends, and speculating on possible outcomes that may affect the Poly2 pricing in 2024.
I believe that is what this thread is for.

I have not been reading any VDH threads as I have no interest in the California resorts.
For those that are interested in VDH, I hope that the pricing lines up more towards the AUL, RR and VGF price and not towards the price that they last sold VGC direct at, but I fear that will not be the case.

As for VGF2, I was one of the very few that expected the direct pricing to come down and line up with the other active resorts, was prepared for it, and bought direct there on day 1 because of that pricing change.
There was, however, an increase on the base direct pricing for active resorts from 201 to 207 right when VGF2 went on sale last March.
I would not call it a last minute increase, its just that the timing for the next price increase and the opening of VGF2 sales were aligned, and I am expecting the same timing alignment to happen this summer with the opening of VDH sales.

The possible price range that was stated at the end of the video, while not officially set and subject to change, does appear to support this conclusion of another price increase on or before the start of VDH sales.
I believe that this price increase will happen and continue the historical trend, affecting Poly2 pricing, and that is the primary reason that I have brought it up and discussed it here.

.

 

[aka Charles]

The price was just raised from $207 to $217 in December...the typically raise in price is about a year later.

RIV went to $207 in February of 2022 and VGF came on sale at $207 in March...there was no rise in VGF price...it was actually reduced from sold out price.

Then in December, about 10 months after the active sales resorts went to $207, it went to $217...that was a little sooner than normal.

So, I do not see them doing another $10 increase this soon, at least for RIV, VGF, and Aulani...and I think we will see VDH start there.

I really hope you are correct.

The historical data for the past 10-12 years shows a trend of every 6.8-8 months on average, and that's all I am trying to point out so that if it does happen, no one is surprised.

But we all know that this is DVC we are talking about, and anything can happen.
Lets hope for the best.

.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

We just bought Poly1 resale late last year. We are agnostic on Poly2 being the same association or being a new one (more room options, more competition, higher points chart, etc.) for our current contract. But we are considering a Poly2 contract depending on incentives if it provides access to new(er) resorts after 2042. This would be the biggest perk, as the current blue card perks do not move the needle for us. With boys ages 8, 5, and 3, and assuming an annual WDW trip, at what price is Poly2 worth buying for future resort access versus a smaller OKW extended resale or similar, staying at the old(er) resorts, and calling it quits when the contracts expire? By the time Poly1 expires, I'll be in my early 80s, if I'm not already dead and rotting.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

We just bought Poly1 resale late last year. We are agnostic on Poly2 being the same association or being a new one (more room options, more competition, higher points chart, etc.) for our current contract. But we are considering a Poly2 contract depending on incentives if it provides access to new(er) resorts after 2042. This would be the biggest perk, as the current blue card perks do not move the needle for us. With boys ages 8, 5, and 3, and assuming an annual WDW trip, at what price is Poly2 worth buying for future resort access versus a smaller OKW extended resale or similar, staying at the old(er) resorts, and calling it quits when the contracts expire? By the time Poly1 expires, I'll be in my early 80s, if I'm not already dead and rotting.

Would you not be happy staying at PVB? Plus you have SSR, OKW, CCV, VGF, AKV and BLT as onsite options too. I'd just wait until 2066 or sometime close to that and decide then if you want more years.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

Would you not be happy staying at PVB? Plus you have SSR, OKW, CCV, VGF, AKV and BLT as onsite options too. I'd just wait until 2066 or sometime close to that and decide then if you want more years.

We will be very happy staying at PVB. I loved the vibe of OKW when we stayed there in April 2022. And we plan on staying a couple of nights at AKV in August. We have not stayed at any of the other properties, but I would like to visit each property via split stays. Living in IL, we would ideally spend a week each year to make the travel costs worthwhile. As the boys get older and they want to invite friends along, we may need more points in order to stay in a 2BR or two PVB studios.

 

[RoseGold]

Ugh, if so I will never be a direct owner. I've been counting on a super good release price for Poly2, like around $175pp. If it's more than $200, I'll just stay a white card pleb forever. These direct prices are ridiculous.

Hey, if RIV resale or Poly2 resale drops low enough I'll be an orange card or teal card pleb or whatever. Who knows what is going to happen with all of these new classes of members.

 

[DVCKing]

I’m changing my vote to same association. We stopped at the kiosk at GF over the weekend and the guide, Henry said the only information that has been shared with guides from DVC is that the new tower will have 1, 2 and 3 bedrooms. No studios….

 

[Cfabar1]

I’m changing my vote to same association. We stopped at the kiosk at GF over the weekend and the guide, Henry said the only information that has been shared with guides from DVC is that the new tower will have 1, 2 and 3 bedrooms. No studios….

If there are no studios I think it will have to be same association…

But honestly, I don’t put much faith in what the guides say. They aren’t told that much by Disney In my experience, and sometimes they just make things up it feels like.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

If there are no studios I think it will have to be same association…

But honestly, I don’t put much faith in what the guides say. They aren’t told that much by Disney In my experience, and sometimes they just make things up it feels like.

The guides get their info from the bus drivers

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I’m changing my vote to same association. We stopped at the kiosk at GF over the weekend and the guide, Henry said the only information that has been shared with guides from DVC is that the new tower will have 1, 2 and 3 bedrooms. No studios….

Well THAT's the most interesting rumor to come out on the Poly tower. I'm completely skeptical but it's a very very interesting thought.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Well THAT's the most interesting room to come out on the Poly tower. I'm completely skeptical but it's a very very interesting thought.

I suppose it would make sense given that there are already so many studios on the monorail between VGF2 and Poly1...

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I suppose it would make sense given that there are already so many studios on the monorail between VGF2 and Poly1...

The other interesting bit is that Poly has no 1 or 2BR's to have the points already determined. They could establish them like any new resort anywhere between the studios and the Bungalows.

 

[BamaGuy44]

The other interesting bit is that Poly has no 1 or 2BR's to have the points already determined. They could establish them like any new resort anywhere between the studios and the Bungalows.

I don't think they have that much leeway really. Assuming the studios are close to Poly 1, 1BR are roughly double the points of a studio, and 2BR are like 40% more than 1BR. That ratio is pretty consistent across the resorts.

They could do whatever they want, but I think its pretty likely they stick close to the current formula.

 

[Minniemoo15]

Wow - if that rumour is correct, all of a sudden PV1 studios become a lot more competitive. I don’t think SAP will as easily trade into PVB studios at 7 months anymore.

As a PV1 white card owner I was hoping for same association and if so, strongly considering adding more points direct. But I don’t feel great about the tower having NO studios…

Also, if Tower is part of the same association and restriction free…do I really actually need direct points? RIV will stick out like a sore thumb and all these threats of “not being able to stay at future resorts” will be empty, with the 2 newest additions being accessible to us post 2019 resalers. I can’t figure out their game here.

So I am back to on the fence and not knowing how I feel

 

[Royal Consort]

I’m changing my vote to same association. We stopped at the kiosk at GF over the weekend and the guide, Henry said the only information that has been shared with guides from DVC is that the new tower will have 1, 2 and 3 bedrooms. No studios….

Guides and kiosk attendants are not often the most reliable source. Disney keeps their cards very close to their chest and don't communicate with their teams until they decide to go full throttle on sales prep.

If multiple various sources start to corroborate this information, I will take it seriously. Until then, it goes on the heap with the rest of the stuff guides and kiosk staff have said over the years.