The large number of new Aulani resale contracts??

[lilsonicfan]

Sorry, my post was deleted, I will rephrase. Several AUL-S contracts at $125pp or more with no points till 2026, some with no points till 2027. Really crazy pricing....in my opinion lol.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Sorry, my post was deleted, I will rephrase. Several AUL-S contracts at $125pp or more with no points till 2026, some with no points till 2027. Really crazy pricing....in my opinion lol.

I feel like that’s more in line with pricing I saw prior to this year. I think some estate sales and international sellers have provided a nice entry points for AUL-S this year, and commercial sellers are more likely to price the contracts significantly higher….. to the point where it makes more sense to buy a reasonably priced non-S at under $100pp with points on the contract.

IMO you need to price those stripped points at a bare minimum of $10 per year and so a $125pp with no points until 2026 is really a $145pp. At least!

Give the low dues and price of BLT…. I don’t think AUL-S contracts are the SAP that they once were…. although they are great at a reasonable price point if you want the AUL home resort advantage.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Had another idea that came to me. What if they are dumping more contracts behind the scenes that we don't see. The brokers know what the ROFRs are better than we do considering how much volume they have. They could then sell some resorts like AKV (sure they have a bunch of those in order to snag the value rooms) between their LLCs. Example, ABC LLC sells to CBA LLC (both owned by the broker) selling AKV at $95 (hypothetical) and hope for ROFR. If if doesn't get ROFR'ed just cancel the sale, and try again with a different contract or price, assuming any other costs are kept in-house. Don't see it with AUL because it just isn't getting ROFR'ed so have to list it. Of course could get more if it lists and a buyer takes their inflated prices.

That would show up in the deeds within the next 60 days… will be interesting to see what the deed watchers report….

 

[VGCgroupie]

I feel like that’s more in line with pricing I saw prior to this year. I think some estate sales and international sellers have provided a nice entry points for AUL-S this year, and commercial sellers are more likely to price the contracts significantly higher….. to the point where it makes more sense to buy a reasonably priced non-S at under $100pp with points on the contract.

IMO you need to price those stripped points at a bare minimum of $10 per year and so a $125pp with no points until 2026 is really a $145pp. At least!

Give the low dues and price of BLT…. I don’t think AUL-S contracts are the SAP that they once were…. although they are great at a reasonable price point if you want the AUL home resort advantage.

I think AUL S will always have somewhat of a leg up but not just looking at SAP. You pay more up front but it will always be valued higher than non S when selling and you will typically sell quicker than a non S contract. So you pay a bit more up front and buy you will sell for more later.

 

[disneylandtour]

Had another idea that came to me. What if they are dumping more contracts behind the scenes that we don't see. The brokers know what the ROFRs are better than we do considering how much volume they have. They could then sell some resorts like AKV (sure they have a bunch of those in order to snag the value rooms) between their LLCs. Example, ABC LLC sells to CBA LLC (both owned by the broker) selling AKV at $95 (hypothetical) and hope for ROFR. If if doesn't get ROFR'ed just cancel the sale, and try again with a different contract or price, assuming any other costs are kept in-house. Don't see it with AUL because it just isn't getting ROFR'ed so have to list it. Of course could get more if it lists and a buyer takes their inflated prices.

There are literally no ROFR at AUL. Maybe there was one yeas ago? But the resort is a dozen years old, and Disney still has a stack of points it wants to sell. Someone can correct me, but I think it still has about 30% of the original points. No other resort this old is still open and selling original points. There's nothing even close. Why there hasn't been a fire sale here recently is also a little confusing to me.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I think AUL S will always have somewhat of a leg up but not just looking at SAP. You pay more up front but it will always be valued higher than non S when selling and you will typically sell quicker than a non S contract. So you pay a bit more up front and buy you will sell for more later.

IMO, if you are just going to sell it for what you paid then you might as well not tie up as much capital with some adjustment for the dues.

 

[pzw90]

There are literally no ROFR at AUL. Maybe there was one yeas ago? But the resort is a dozen years old, and Disney still has a stack of points it wants to sell. Someone can correct me, but I think it still has about 30% of the original points. No other resort this old is still open and selling original points. There's nothing even close. Why there hasn't been a fire sale here recently is also a little confusing to me.

I was speculating that they are dumping non AUL contracts that we just don't see. AUL not being ROFR'ed is resulting in the only avenue to sell is listing.

 

[disneylandtour]

IMO, if you are just going to sell it for what you paid then you might as well not tie up as much capital with some adjustment for the dues.

DVC is NOT an investment. But having said that, everything I've bought in the last five years is worth more than what I paid for it. There are clearly cycles. I'd say that BLT and CCV are a good buy now. SSR was a good buy a couple of years ago, less so today. Last year, OKW Extended was a good buy--that moment is now over. Poly resale is a terrible buy right now. And for anyone with their crystal ball, GCV was a very good buy ten years ago. The high prices on Beach Club and Boardwalk still confuse me--though I understand the appeal (Beach Club) and the points value (Boardwalk). I do think that there are some fairly clear cycles that happen in DVC. So if you wanted to get something and use it for say five or ten years, I'd say that BLT looks like a place where you'd find value at the moment. And by that, you might buy something and sell it for about the same as the purchase price, maybe a little more, with the idea that the MFs (and the loss of investment elsewhere) would be your main long term cost in terms of having access to very nice rooms. Compared to booking hotel rooms, you'd be ahead. But in terms of investment, even the S&P would've been better in the last five years.

 

[VGCgroupie]

The broker that had 80 listed more and now only has 76 so some are moving.

The broker that had 34 now has 41.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Not saying it's an investment. It was more of an IF you sell. IF you have to sell selling a sub contract goes for more than its non sub competition and has less competition in the market. So any extra money spent up front is recouped in the end. BLT there's no rare sought after contract so you are just going to compete with all other listings.

 

[AstroBlasters]

DVC is NOT an investment. But having said that, everything I've bought in the last five years is worth more than what I paid for it. There are clearly cycles. I'd say that BLT and CCV are a good buy now. SSR was a good buy a couple of years ago, less so today. Last year, OKW Extended was a good buy--that moment is now over. Poly resale is a terrible buy right now. And for anyone with their crystal ball, GCV was a very good buy ten years ago. The high prices on Beach Club and Boardwalk still confuse me--though I understand the appeal (Beach Club) and the points value (Boardwalk). I do think that there are some fairly clear cycles that happen in DVC. So if you wanted to get something and use it for say five or ten years, I'd say that BLT looks like a place where you'd find value at the moment. And by that, you might buy something and sell it for about the same as the purchase price, maybe a little more, with the idea that the MFs (and the loss of investment elsewhere) would be your main long term cost in terms of having access to very nice rooms. Compared to booking hotel rooms, you'd be ahead. But in terms of investment, even the S&P would've been better in the last five years.

Right, but as an Aulani focused thread I was only comparing AUL-S vs AUL.

BLT and CCV look fantastic at the moment, but they won’t help me get into an Aulani room in the competitive season.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I track some listings that I am interested in. I had saved one a couple weeks ago. An AUL subsidized at 127pp no full year of points until 2027 is pending sale. Im sure they didn't pay asking but nice to see it sold. It was not from one of these brokers with tons of listings.

 

[kgou]

Watching a YouTube video about the new LL system and one of the brokers with the large amount of Aulani contracts listed has a YouTube ad touting the number of Aulani contracts they have on the market right now ...not sure how often they run ads like this but thought it was an interesting data point.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Watching a YouTube video about the new LL system and one of the brokers with the large amount of Aulani contracts listed has a YouTube ad touting the number of Aulani contracts they have on the market right now ...not sure how often they run ads like this but thought it was an interesting data point.

I might go comment on the video and ask why so many

 

[ShaneDJ]

Watching a YouTube video about the new LL system and one of the brokers with the large amount of Aulani contracts listed has a YouTube ad touting the number of Aulani contracts they have on the market right now ...not sure how often they run ads like this but thought it was an interesting data point.

Can that YouTube link be posted here?

 

[kgou]

Can that YouTube link be posted here?

It was an ad (that appeared multiple times) during the Mammoth Club YouTube video from the summer about the best way to use LL as a Resort guest. Not sure if I can post the video link here, and also not sure if the same ads would appear for other users.

edited to add, I think it's really interesting the ad specifically referenced the number of Aulani contracts they have on the market right now.

 

[VGCgroupie]

It was an ad (that appeared multiple times) during the Mammoth Club YouTube video from the summer about the best way to use LL as a Resort guest. Not sure if I can post the video link here, and also not sure if the same ads would appear for other users.

edited to add, I think it's really interesting the ad specifically referenced the number of Aulani contracts they have on the market right now.

Oh okay so interesting that it was an AD, I for sure thought a video they made that was somewhat like an AD.

 

[kgou]

Oh okay so interesting that it was an AD, I for sure thought a video they made that was somewhat like an AD.

Right? It's appeared a few times in the various videos I've watched today about the LL system. I forget how it's worded exactly, but the ad says something along the lines of "The most variety of Aulani contracts out there" or something along those lines!

 

[ocdb8r1]

The purge continues. Another 6 AUL contracts added in the last 12 hours (half of them subsidized)...but more interesting more than 30 other contracts (almost all stripped) also added from other resorts (now BWV, BCV, HHI and others in the mix). I wonder if AUL was just the start. More and more feeling like a commercial renter exiting the market for some reason.

 

[JackosinDIS]

The purge continues. Another 6 AUL contracts added in the last 12 hours (half of them subsidized)...but more interesting more that 30 other contracts (almost all stripped) also added from other resorts (now BWV, BCV, HHI and others in the mix). I wonder if AUL was just the start. More and more feeling like a commercial renter exiting the market for some reason.

Agree. This is a huge dump of stripped contracts by one broker. There is no way that this many completely stripped contracts, all with delayed closing (some as late as September 2025!) would coincidentally show up overnight.

They NEED to get rid of these contract for one reason or another. However the list prices do not currently reflect that.