My thought is that it may be more difficult to get a 1BR at AKV until the new building opens in 2009. Until that building opens, the supply of 1 BRs may not match demand because of the imbalance created by a lot of dedicated studios.
There are no dedicated 1BRs at AKV, so each 1BR requires splitting up a 2BR lockoff and creating 1 studio and 1BR. On the other hand, there are 46 dedicated studios. I would guess that most, if not all, of them will probably be in the current building opening this Fall.
Let's say there are 6 GV, 46 dedicated studios and 82 2BR lockoffs. If all the 2 BRs are booked as 2 BRs, then 0% of the bookings would be for 1BRs (34% studios, 61% 2 BR and 4% GV). If all of the 2 BRs are split into S/1BR combos, then 38% of the bookings would be for 1 BRs (59% studios, 0% 2BR and 3% GV). So the availability of a 1 BR is likely to be between 0 and 38%.
Your chances will also depend on the category you want to book. Most of the dedicated studios (which are supposed to be only 316 sf) are probably going to be booked in the value category. If you are looking to book a 1 BR in the value category, this may prove very difficult as there may only be 4 2BR lockoffs in this category. These are the
DVC units being converted from 12 standard rooms on the 5th floor overlooking the parking lot.
But, in the savanna view category, it is likely that each studio booked by a guest will free up a 1 BR for booking by another guest.
There may be about 59 2 BR lockoffs with guaranteed savanna view. I am sure that DVC has a formula for how many 2 BR lockoffs they break up for S/1BR in each booking category, but I don't have a clue what it is.
Best of luck -- Suzanne