The demise of unrestricted resorts, by year.

[LoveToDisney]

Plus, at any point DVC can stop the banking/borrowing which will also impact the final years of 2042. Can they also stop the trading? Can’t remember.

 

[Tatebeck]

Plus, at any point DVC can stop the banking/borrowing which will also impact the final years of 2042. Can they also stop the trading? Can’t remember.

They can remove resorts from the BVTC for 7 month swaps under certain conditions if they wish, so unlikely but possible. Another reason why it is safest to buy where you want to stay (or at least don't mind staying). The only thing guaranteed is the ability to stay at your home resort

 

[Sandisw]

Plus, at any point DVC can stop the banking/borrowing which will also impact the final years of 2042. Can they also stop the trading? Can’t remember.

Under certain rules they can remove it. But, the home resort window that is currently 4 months could be increased at the 2042 resorts to give those owners more time to use up points in the last few years…which means fewer time to trade in.

 

[CastAStone]

I think the bigger concern with O14-tied points is that there won't be any options in or near EP/DS, though I suppose Poly could be the best EP option

This I do agree with but honestly SSR to Epcot/DHS is a pretty trivial trip (by Disney World standards)

 

[kilik64]

I think a kink in all of it is OKW. 60-70% (based on estimates of how many took the ext plus attrition over time of more okw-e being resold direct) of the owner points will revert back to DVC via the quitclaim deeds on those. But all the points got extended to 2057, so what will dvc do with the ~5m or so points they are gonna get stuck with?

Will they do a massive fire sale on points only good for 13 years just to get out of the dues? Would people even buy them? At that point they would also be direct points, so would be good at any resort for trade and most likely get you membership extras too depending on requirement at that time for it.

Oh and not to mention that the dues by then are gonna be like $20/point or more if they continue at the same current pace.

 

[Tatebeck]

I think a kink in all of it is OKW. 60-70% (based on estimates of how many took the ext plus attrition over time of more okw-e being resold direct) of the owner points will revert back to DVC via the quitclaim deeds on those. But all the points got extended to 2057, so what will dvc do with the ~5m or so points they are gonna get stuck with?

Will they do a massive fire sale on points only good for 13 years just to get out of the dues? Would people even buy them? At that point they would also be direct points, so would be good at any resort for trade and most likely get you membership extras too depending on requirement at that time for it.

Oh and not to mention that the dues by then are gonna be like $20/point or more if they continue at the same current pace.

It would be much easier if they keep ROFRing the 2042 contracts, extend them to 2057 and have occasional firesales on them like they did last year to make sure they are mostly resold before 2042 comes

 

[that1jeff]

I don't see Disney not renewing most of the 2042 resorts under "DVC 2.0" (with resale restrictions). I think HH and VB will probably be sold off come 2042. But I'd bet all other resorts expiring will be renewed. So the options for members booking with direct points won't really be affected or lessened.

Basically for resale buyers, "Buy where you want to stay" will no longer be a suggestion or a good rule of thumb. It will be a necessity. As the 11 month booking window will be your only way to get what you want at a specific resort when competing against direct points that will have access to everything. Before all the O14 resorts expire, because your options would lessen. And then after, you obviously won't have any other choice (as a resale buyer of restricted points).

I'm no fan of the restrictions. But as I think about this more. If you are a resale buyer that doesn't really like to stay anywhere else except your home resort, this might be a "good" thing. Maybe. Cheaper price per point for the only place you were going to stay anyways.

 

[CarolynFH]

I know this is quibbling, but for benefit of those new to D.V.C. or reading this in future, all resorts expire on January 31 of whichever year. So for most of 2042, for instance, resale owners will have access to only 8 non-home resorts because the five 2042 resorts will be gone after January.

 

[sethschroeder]

This I do agree with but honestly SSR to Epcot/DHS is a pretty trivial trip (by Disney World standards)

Needing to catch a bus that makes multiple stops inside your resort is trivial in comparison to walking .25 mile?

If it were the case then people would just stay at SSR instead of buying it for sleep around points.

In the end OKW points are still going to be part of the pool of resort rooms in 2043, roughly half will be resale, another portion will have extended, and we don't fully know what legal actions might be taken by some owners that possibly actually allow OKW owners in general to just keep their contract.

OKW is roughly half the size of SSR as well which has a much bigger impact especially with it being the cheap SAP option with OKW MFs going up.

 

[CastAStone]

Needing to catch a bus that makes multiple stops inside your resort is trivial in comparison to walking .25 mile?

Very obviously not what I meant.

 

[Patmcpsu]

Basically for resale buyers, "Buy where you want to stay" will no longer be a suggestion or a good rule of thumb. It will be a necessity. As the 11 month booking window will be your only way to get what you want at a specific resort when competing against direct points that will have access to everything. Before all the O14 resorts expire, because your options would lessen. And then after, you obviously won't have any other choice (as a resale buyer of restricted points).

And to add to this, it's ignorant to say "I won't be holding my timeshare by that point anyway". When you (or your next of kin) will try to sell in say 2045, you will need a buyer who will very-much buy where they want to stay.

 

[sethschroeder]

Very obviously not what I meant.

Then what do you mean?

SSR/OKW transportation to me is very much a large negative with the bus being the only option for the resort. I dont like the monorail but that from TTC would be preferred by most I would suspect.

 

[CVG]

Then what do you mean?

SSR/OKW transportation to me is very much a large negative with the bus being the only option for the resort. I dont like the monorail but that from TTC would be preferred by most I would suspect.

Everyone will like different things. I'm OKW and the bus to Epcot and HWS is really nothing of an issue. Pretty frequent, fast and rarely packed, and usually no tours around the resort before making our way. It is trivial to us.

And for us the kicker is the ability to leave the madness of the main bubble behind. We did a staying tour of the resorts last year. BWV and Poly were great for park access, but it felt (to us) like the madness followed you home.

 

[Brian Noble]

This I do agree with but honestly SSR to Epcot/DHS is a pretty trivial trip (by Disney World standards)

I know that. And you know that. But the bourgeoisie can't bring themselves to step on a bus.

 

[WinterSolider]

OKW has 7.7M. Throw in VB and HHI and you get another 3M. It's not clear how many OKW owners extended (probably not many), nor is it clear how many VB/HHI owners are not SAP'ing their way around. But, it's probably close enough to a wash to not matter.

Don't forget those of us who bought OKW direct in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty four.

 

[Brian Noble]

so what will dvc do with the ~5m or so points they are gonna get stuck with?

I think there are lots of possibilities. Remember the "Developer bonus point" days when SSR was on sale?

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...-incentive-bonus-with-member-referral-updated

I can also imainge the OTU annual limit bumping up to 49 once all (or even all-but-Aulani) of the active resorts have 50-pt minimums.

 

[WinterSolider]

I know that. And you know that. But the bourgeoisie can't bring themselves to step on a bus.

DVC members have tricked themselves into thinking 45 minutes from the Contemporary to Epcot is more convenient than 10 minutes from Old Key West to Epcot because one of them has an ugly bus.

 

[Brian Noble]

from the Contemporary to Epcot

This is exactly the route I was thinking of.

 

[Sandisw]

DVC members have tricked themselves into thinking 45 minutes from the Contemporary to Epcot is more convenient than 10 minutes from Old Key West to Epcot because one of them has an ugly bus.

Why we split stay because that Epcot monorail from the MK resorts is not our favorite!!!

But, I think that those who are buying at the big three for the main purpose to stay at the best park resorts, and who can’t trade to new ones, will have a harder time than now.

So, you one is buying for use well beyond that, at least one should go in knowing that come 2042, if things continue with restrictions, that one might see a change to the ease in moving elsewhere.

 

[CastAStone]

Then what do you mean?

SSR/OKW transportation to me is very much a large negative with the bus being the only option for the resort. I dont like the monorail but that from TTC would be preferred by most I would suspect.

The buses are a PITA compared to walking. But *other than those* you can’t find a deluxe resort closer to Epcot.