Tell me why this is a bad idea...

[myxdvz]

So, I know I need to add on some points, 2015 at the latest because by then we won't fit in a 1 BR and have to start doing 2 BRs.

I'm all booked for this year (Summer/Thanksgiving), and spring break next year. So I don't really need any points until 2015.

I'm not really interested in VGF, I'm more interested in Poly -- whenever that comes out.

DVC history says that those who bought when the resort first came out - came ahead.

So, why not buy VGF points now -- rent it if I don't need it (it may or may not command a premium). And then sell when Poly comes out? or if we end up not liking VGF?

 

[JWG]

The only reason I can give you is because a timeshare is like a new car. he 2nd it rolls off the lot its value decreases by 33%.

You'll never make back what you spent. So, it's the cost of leasing points.

Otherwise, if you can swing it, do it if you think it will help manage planed trips.

 

[ELMC]

So, I know I need to add on some points, 2015 at the latest because by then we won't fit in a 1 BR and have to start doing 2 BRs.

I'm all booked for this year (Summer/Thanksgiving), and spring break next year. So I don't really need any points until 2015.

I'm not really interested in VGF, I'm more interested in Poly -- whenever that comes out.

DVC history says that those who bought when the resort first came out - came ahead.

So, why not buy VGF points now -- rent it if I don't need it (it may or may not command a premium). And then sell when Poly comes out? or if we end up not liking VGF?

I like how you're thinking, but keep in mind that not everybody who bought when the resort first came out is ahead of the game. I would point to SSR and AKV as two recent examples of owners who have experienced significant drops in the cash value of their purchase. That being said, I don't think that VGF will follow that trend, and I predict that it will follow along the path you are describing.

Really, the only two reasons to buy VGF are if you are actually interested in owning there, or if you are against buying resale. If you won't consider resale, I think that VGF is the best bet for your direct purchase dollar right now. But in your situation, if you just need more points and home resort is not an issue, an OKW or SSR resale contract should do nicely, and at a fraction of the cost.

 

[myxdvz]

I like how you're thinking, but keep in mind that not everybody who bought when the resort first came out is ahead of the game. I would point to SSR and AKV as two recent examples of owners who have experienced significant drops in the cash value of their purchase. That being said, I don't think that VGF will follow that trend, and I predict that it will follow along the path you are describing.

I don't think VGF won't go the way of SSR/AKV either -- just because of the size difference.

Really, the only two reasons to buy VGF are if you are actually interested in owning there, or if you are against buying resale. If you won't consider resale, I think that VGF is the best bet for your direct purchase dollar right now. But in your situation, if you just need more points and home resort is not an issue, an OKW or SSR resale contract should do nicely, and at a fraction of the cost.

And this is why I'm even asking. I'm not really interested in owning at VGF. But I am interested in owning more points and will be waiting for Poly. I am not doing resales right now -- because I have until 2015 when I really need the points and the prices are too high for me (for these resorts). I felt I had the luxury of time to wait until the resale market stabilizes again and become a buyers market vs the seller's market it is now.

So if VGF didn't come out - this wouldn't have entered my mind. But if I have money to burn, do I just add it to my portfolio? Or do I buy VGF now (knowing that VGF will just increase later and Poly will probably start higher). If I can sell it at $145 the first time it goes on resale I'll get my money back plus any rental $$$ or usage I get out of it.

What were the prices of BLT when it first drop on the resale market? And what was direct prices then?

Why is this not a win-win?

Only downside really is VGF truly tanks. And what are the chances of that happening?

The only reason I can give you is because a timeshare is like a new car. he 2nd it rolls off the lot its value decreases by 33%.

You'll never make back what you spent. So, it's the cost of leasing points.

Otherwise, if you can swing it, do it if you think it will help manage planed trips.

That is true for any regular timeshare, not sure how true that is of DVC on the first year of resort opening though. You buy it now @ $145, it's guaranteed to increase in a few weeks to $150.

 

[BestDadEver]

Not sure it would work so short term . Rumors say poly could be coming 3-5 years to me that's not enough time .

Like your example with BLT started at $107 I believe and is selling resale at around $80-90 . I guess it could work if you factor in the rentals income but then that won't be as much as collected cause if MF.

IDK if you really don't care about the money it may be worth a shot cause IMO this resort probably end up following the same pattern a VGC hard to book at 7 months and hard to get contracts . I wouldn't buy a really big contract or split it so easier to sell .

 

[CarolMN]

Have you given a serious look at the numbers for renting to be sure it is feasible? Top rate is probably about $14/point and the VGF costs more points per night than the other WDW resorts.

Are you willing to spend the time it will take to find renters and deal with their questions, requests, etc.?

IMO, you are not going to be able to charge a premium for VGF points due to the higher per point cost to stay there. Do you think you can find enough renters who want to stay at the GF villas at the price you will need to charge? IMO, the largest group of repeat renters are looking more for bargains than a particular resort. FWIW, you will have lots of competition for that group of people.

I agree with the others that think you will lose money on your purchase if you plan to sell within 5 years or so. It's definitely not a win economically if you have to finance the purchase.

Given your situation, my advice is to set aside the money you would use to buy the VGF and add to it periodically. Then take a hard look at the Poly when it becomes available and buy there if it's right for your family.

Good luck!

 

[bakerworld]

IMO wouldn't buy just to have pts and rent them but then I also wouldn't like the hassle of renting. That said, once used and understood, renting probably wouldn't be a hassle once past the learning curve. Still, IMO, would only purchase where if getting 'stuck' with points they'd be readily 'usable' by owner vs. losing them. Hence, in this situation, HHI looks more attractive than VGC.

 

[Dean]

So, I know I need to add on some points, 2015 at the latest because by then we won't fit in a 1 BR and have to start doing 2 BRs.

I'm all booked for this year (Summer/Thanksgiving), and spring break next year. So I don't really need any points until 2015.

I'm not really interested in VGF, I'm more interested in Poly -- whenever that comes out.

DVC history says that those who bought when the resort first came out - came ahead.

So, why not buy VGF points now -- rent it if I don't need it (it may or may not command a premium). And then sell when Poly comes out? or if we end up not liking VGF?

IMO the main reason to buy a new resort is because you truly want to stay there most trips with those points and not just to get more points. Why complicate your life by buying something to rent out or sell later when you could either buy what you want around the time you need it or buy a points cow much cheaper if you just wanted more points. I do not believe that VGF will be so popular that you'll be able to earn more renting it than several other options and I don't think you could ever out earn both the increased buy in cost AND the extra points required. I can't think of any situation where buying and renting or buying new to resell is a good idea with current prices. You'd also likely lose money on both the sale and have to pay commissions. My suggestion is to simply set aside the dollars and buy the Poly day 1 when it's available since you have enough info to know it's very likely to happen and to plan for it. If you don't have enough points to make it until the Poly comes on board there are many ways to stretch your points until then.

 

[JimMIA]

If I were going to buy DVC points to tide me over until Poly goes on sale, I certainly would not buy anything direct. I'd buy either SSR or OKW resale (low cost, low dues) and use those points to supplement what I already had to give me larger accommodations. I personally don't think even that is a good idea, but it will lower your loss when you sell.

Another option is to shorten trips just a bit to conserve points for a larger villa. Cutting out a Friday or Saturday night can be a significant savings, especially for a two-bedroom.

A third option -- and a good one -- is to buy transfers into your account for the points you lack. Easy, painless, low-cost, and no ongoing financial obligation.

And finally, in your particular case, you also have the option of trying to use your Wyndham points to exchange into DVC. Now with that option, you will probably be limited pretty much to SSR or OKW, but it is an available, low-cost option. That takes more advanced planning and using ongoing searches, but it's doable.

I would never buy DVC with the idea of possibly only keeping it 2-5 years.

You are going to take a hit when you sell (don't forget, what you're selling will be subject to those dreaded "resale restrictions" ) AND you'll have to pay a 10% commission as well. And if you finance, you will be underwater and will have to pay IN to close.

The whole concept of purchasing any timeshare for the short term is a bad idea, IMHO

 

[myxdvz]

Ok. I think you've convinced me

I'm not really buying this to tide me over until Poly. As you said, I have lots of Wyndham points for those to stay at BC or try my luck with RCI.

And I agree that purchasing timeshares for short term is a bad idea. And definitely NOT for investment.

Just curious if anyone thinks VGF will buck the trend.

Maybe I should go buy those LV bags . Now THOSE kinda of purchases, I told my girl friends are crazy

It goes without saying that this won't be financed. I have money to burn. Do I buy frivolous stuff, buy VGF (both I don't need) or just add to my investment portfolio.

 

[taaren]

FWIW, not even VGC early resales were higher than the initial offerings direct (and I think given the size of the resort and high point per night cost, VGC is probably the most comparable to VGF).

I bought in June 2009 at $96/pt direct. (I think they started offering it a few months earlier a few dollars lower direct depending on incentives. Technically it was $105/pt with a $9 incentive when I bought.) I bought my resale add-on contract in late 2010 (offered in October, closed in January 2011) for $82/pt (initial asking was closer to $90?). This was one of the first few contracts to be seen in the Timeshare Store, around the same time that DVD ran out of points to sell and started putting people on waiting lists. So even though the resort sold out in a little over a year and a half and is in high demand, if one had bought direct then sold within 2 years one would have lost close ~$14/per point.

Now its selling for $115/pt and up, so if you wait 4-5 years the value for a very small resort might be $10/pt higher than what its original price was. But that's only because there are so few contracts and they are few and far between so it seems like not many want to sell. Will there be as few people willing to part with their VGF?

An interesting thought on a way to gamble if you had extra cash, though, OP.

 

[Dean]

Just curious if anyone thinks VGF will buck the trend.

No but it'll likely do better than most. The high up front costs are the achilles heel of BLT & VGF from this perspective.