Talk me down from buying direct (or don’t)

[miTnosnhoJ]

I wonder if Disney really thought this through. Let’s say 45 years have gone by. How many of the original buyers still own their Riviera points? If 95% have gone to resale, then you have a resort that is virtually locked up. No one can get out, and owners at other resorts cannot get in.

Of course, they could always change the rules again if it became a problem.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I wonder if Disney really thought this through. Let’s say 45 years have gone by. How many of the original buyers still own their Riviera points? If 95% have gone to resale, then you have a resort that is virtually locked up. No one can get out, and owners at other resorts cannot get in.

Of course, they could always change the rules again if it became a problem.

They'll have to be taking a large portion of the contracts in ROFR and reselling them.

The only way for people to be exchanging in this second phase of DVC is to be buying direct. Many grandfathered in will be long gone as well. phase 1 resorts will be dwindling. They are counting on people NOT buying resale.

Upside to this? Major increase in direct benefits....?

 

[freediverdude]

As for the op's question, I would be hesitant right now to purchase anything until the dust has settled on all these changes so you know what you're getting. If the op really does want to stay at AKV and already knows they want to purchase direct there, then yes could save some money purchasing in the next week. But that's only if you're sure you have already decided you want to purchase some direct points and don't want Riviera.

 

[DougEMG]

Imagine the poor Riviera resale purchaser looking to book a studio under 7 months. All they can book is Riviera, at least owners of the 'original 14' can always fall back to something at SSR.

I suspect resale purchasers of a Riviera will have an extremely hard time getting a room after the 7 month window opens.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Imagine the poor Riviera resale purchaser looking to book a studio under 7 months. All they can book is Riviera, at least owners of the 'original 14' can always fall back to something at SSR.

I suspect resale purchasers of a Riviera will have an extremely hard time getting a room after the 7 month window opens.

Is there still going to be a 7 month window? Changes to that might be in the works too in order to make this all function.

 

[freediverdude]

Well but keep in mind, that may be an issue the first couple years, but as the years go on, more and more resale purchasers will not be able to book Riviera either, so it will switch over to more Riviera owners booking.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Well but keep in mind, that may be an issue the first couple years, but as the years go on, more and more resale purchasers will not be able to book Riviera either, so it will switch over to more Riviera owners booking.

14 resorts to 1? That's gotta be a lot of points you're expecting at Riviera. And to also be expecting owners there to hang on to their points for a much longer length of time than at current resorts. They'll also have people change their minds who got caught up in the pixie dust. Who lose jobs. Who go thru divorce. Who's kids get older and nobody wants to visit Disney etc. etc.

 

[freediverdude]

If the average length of time a contract is kept is really 5-10 years, then in about a decade most resale owners (and indeed even current direct owners who will have sold by then) won't be able to book Riviera, it will be mostly Riviera direct, recent direct purchasers, and Riviera resale owners.

 

[ParkHoppers]

Imagine the poor Riviera resale purchaser looking to book a studio under 7 months. All they can book is Riviera, at least owners of the 'original 14' can always fall back to something at SSR.

I suspect resale purchasers of a Riviera will have an extremely hard time getting a room after the 7 month window opens.

With such a low resale value Disney might buy back 90%. Won’t be many resale owners to suffer possibly.

 

[Wakey]

They'll have to be taking a large portion of the contracts in ROFR and reselling them.

The only way for people to be exchanging in this second phase of DVC is to be buying direct. Many grandfathered in will be long gone as well. phase 1 resorts will be dwindling. They are counting on people NOT buying resale.

Upside to this? Major increase in direct benefits....?

Direct benefits are to differentiate direct from resale as well as to tempt new buyers.

If the resale market is destroyed, why would they spend money trying to differentiate direct from resale?

 

[zavandor]

If the resale market is destroyed, why would they spend money trying to differentiate direct from resale?

They wouldn't, but they might still want to spend some marketing money to generate some positive buzz (they will certainly need it going forward) and give some freebies. For example, I've seen other timeshare offering week long vacations for free or pennies if you just accept to sit through a 2 hours presentation. Some would even give you the vacation for free and actually pay you money, in the form of gift cards or free dinners. I cannot see DVC doing that, but investing some money in free parties could still be a good marketing tool as extras awaiting new buyers after they sign. They might start keeping a few tickets for last minute invites for potential buyers too.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Direct benefits are to differentiate direct from resale as well as to tempt new buyers.

If the resale market is destroyed, why would they spend money trying to differentiate direct from resale?

I think DVC is going the way of "join the elite club" no longer "save money on your vacations". Elite want benefits nobody else gets.

They are seeing this work by the success of all their dessert parties and special ticketed events.

I went to MVMCP and paid for Tony's Merriest whatever, as I sat in my little roped off area for the parade, trying not to think about the fact that I spent almost $2k in one single day at WDW and my DH was headed back to the room early because he was sick, I watched people trying to get into our area. I answered questions about how we were there and one man literally said to me "well we can afford that, I'm mad we didn't know about it". I was embarrassed to admit I paid it, but I'm pretty sure he would have pulled out a wad of cash right then and there to be behind those ropes. People want to have special privileges.

They sold tickets to day guests that didnt even get to see fireworks, tickets to the party, tickets to a before the fireworks dessert party, an after the fireworks dessert party, this new party we attended.... The sky's the limit.

They will get their $250+ per point by giving people something exclusive.

 

[Madame]

I think DVC is going the way of "join the elite club" no longer "save money on your vacations". Elite want benefits nobody else gets.

They are seeing this work by the success of all their dessert parties and special ticketed events.

I went to MVMCP and paid for Tony's Merriest whatever, as I sat in my little roped off area for the parade, trying not to think about the fact that I spent almost $2k in one single day at WDW and my DH was headed back to the room early because he was sick, I watched people trying to get into our area. I answered questions about how we were there and one man literally said to me "well we can afford that, I'm mad we didn't know about it". I was embarrassed to admit I paid it, but I'm pretty sure he would have pulled out a wad of cash right then and there to be behind those ropes. People want to have special privileges.

They sold tickets to day guests that didnt even get to see fireworks, tickets to the party, tickets to a before the fireworks dessert party, an after the fireworks dessert party, this new party we attended.... The sky's the limit.

They will get their $250+ per point by giving people something exclusive.

As a history teacher I’m seeing shades of the 1920s/pre 2008 - society merrily dancing its way to the edge of disaster, sipping champagne and nibbling on caviar. Another « Roaring 20s » (in French « les années folles » the crazy years) of gluttony and excess. Freaking myself out a bit.

 

[TheMick424]

I think DVC is going the way of "join the elite club" no longer "save money on your vacations". Elite want benefits nobody else gets.

They are seeing this work by the success of all their dessert parties and special ticketed events.

I went to MVMCP and paid for Tony's Merriest whatever, as I sat in my little roped off area for the parade, trying not to think about the fact that I spent almost $2k in one single day at WDW and my DH was headed back to the room early because he was sick, I watched people trying to get into our area. I answered questions about how we were there and one man literally said to me "well we can afford that, I'm mad we didn't know about it". I was embarrassed to admit I paid it, but I'm pretty sure he would have pulled out a wad of cash right then and there to be behind those ropes. People want to have special privileges.

They sold tickets to day guests that didnt even get to see fireworks, tickets to the party, tickets to a before the fireworks dessert party, an after the fireworks dessert party, this new party we attended.... The sky's the limit.

They will get their $250+ per point by giving people something exclusive.

Spot on!

 

[4luv2cdisney]

As a history teacher I’m sering shades of the 1920s/pre 2008 - society merrily dancing its way to the edge of disaster, sipping champagne and nibbling on caviar. Another « Roaring 20s » (in French « les années folles » the crazy years) of gluttony and excess. Freaking myself out a bit.

I definitely feel like we are on the edge of disaster. As a parent of a college student and another soon to be, I am terrified for them. I've run the numbers, I know how much my part time wages vs college costs at the time were. I know how much my rent vs entry level pay was. I know what percentage of my income my car and insurance cost me..... I know what those numbers are for my kids and they are very different. My kids are hard workers with good heads on their shoulders but they are not going into engineering or actuarial science lol. I do not know how they will make it on their own .

 

[Madame]

I definitely feel like we are on the edge of disaster. As a parent of a college student and another soon to be, I am terrified for them. I've run the numbers, I know how much my part time wages vs college costs at the time were. I know how much my rent vs entry level pay was. I know what percentage of my income my car and insurance cost me..... I know what those numbers are for my kids and they are very different. My kids are hard workers with good heads on their shoulders but they are not going into engineering or actuarial science lol. I do not know how they will make it on their own .

Oh definitely. My 3 at 9, 9, & 11 have combined about $80,000 in university savings (& the Canadian system is already partially government subsidized).

I have 3 degrees all obtained almost free via academic scholarship. I saw the writing on the wall before we even started having kids & we’re trying to get them started at least debt free.

 

[CarolynFH]

I wonder if Disney really thought this through. Let’s say 45 years have gone by. How many of the original buyers still own their Riviera points? If 95% have gone to resale, then you have a resort that is virtually locked up. No one can get out, and owners at other resorts cannot get in.

Of course, they could always change the rules again if it became a problem.

Or if Riviera is the first "DVC II" resort to open, the rules for that Club could allow resale owners at Riviera, Reflections, and other DVC II resorts yet to come to trade into any of the spiffy, shiny new DVC II resorts. They just wouldn't be able to trade into the old, outdated DVC I resorts (which will undergo extensive rehabbing and rebuilding once they expire and then be sold as new DVC II resorts).

 

[cruisin5]

Is the ability for L14 owners to book a non-home resort a right or a perk?

 

[mamaofsix]

Is the ability for L14 owners to book a non-home resort a right or a perk?

If it's simply a perk, not a right (and can be taken away at any time . . . ) then we certainly won't be buying in. Our family is still on the fence about purchasing DVC. The entire appeal, for us, is to have flexibility to book at different places on Disney Property. Take that away, and it's no better than any other time share I can buy for pennies on ebay. With no ability to book at non-home resorts, I certainly could not justify the enormous price tag. Why in the world would we pay that much for so few benefits? Disney's entire sales pitch originally was that DVC was 'different' because it offered so much flexibility. They are shooting themselves in the foot if they plan to take that flexibility away. Just my opinion, though...

 

[crvetter]

If it's simply a perk, not a right (and can be taken away at any time . . . ) then we certainly won't be buying in. Our family is still on the fence about purchasing DVC. The entire appeal, for us, is to have flexibility to book at different places on Disney Property. Take that away, and it's no better than any other time share I can buy for pennies on ebay. With no ability to book at non-home resorts, I certainly could not justify the enormous price tag. Why in the world would we pay that much for so few benefits? Disney's entire sales pitch originally was that DVC was 'different' because it offered so much flexibility. They are shooting themselves in the foot if they plan to take that flexibility away. Just my opinion, though...

I believe the right for the original 14 resorts to book at the other 14 resorts is a right that is attached to the deed of the property and can never be separated. So I believe that they would have a very hard time ever restricting the resales of the original 14 to their home resort only. However there are other restrictions they can do such as extend the home priority period, charge to transfer, etc but that would need to be applied to all owners not just resale.