Swine Flu - General Discussion and how it affects Disney

It is absolutely NOT wrong information to state that the theme parks will close if the pandemic alert level goes to 6 and there is a confirmed case in Orange or Osceola County.

Here's the PDF link to the plan itself:

http://www.doh.state.fl.us/rw_Bulletins/flpanfluv104final.pdf

The relevant portion is on page 15 of the document/page 20 of the PDF file, Table 9: Interventions By Pandemic Sub-Phase. I can't get the table to properly copy here, but it's right there in black and white on the pandemic plan.

The length of closing, according to the plan, is however long the pandemic lasts. Once we reach phase 6D, recovery, then the parks will reopen.

I don't believe that the plan was created by people without an understanding of the pandemic threat levels. The fact is that the pandemic threat level does not generally affect us, on a personal level, since the flu virus is already here. However, it does affect the reactions of authorities on the state and local levels, whose job it is to contain the spread to the extent possible. Therefore, with a level 6 pandemic, it falls to those authorities to institute measures that the public does not necessarily like, including social distancing measures.

I'm sorry if you feel that sharing legitimate information is inciting a panic. I think that if it was me, planning a long-awaited and expensive vacation in another state, I would want to be informed of the possibility that my trip may be involuntarily canceled. Maybe that just makes me a fear monger or something :confused3

Now, I'm not in ANY way saying that this is GOING to happen. All I am doing is giving the information that according to the official plan, confirmed by news media in the local area, it is a possibility.

After reading the document you linked, the news stations seemed to leave out information about the severity index. The way it looks, it wouldn't be recommended to close theme parks unless there are estimated to be over 900,000 U.S. deaths.
 
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Look at page 26 of the same document...

It says they will "consider" closing the parks at a Pandemic Severity Index of 4 and "recommend" at a Pandemic Severity Index of 5. This is very important. If the Hong Kong Flu or seasonal flu is spreading, they will not even consider closing the parks. They will close schools, but not the parks. They only way they will "recommend" they close the parks is a PSI of 5 - which is the 1918 level. And we are no where near even discussing that!

The "Close the Parks" reference - See page 26

Wiki Pandemic Severity Level Index

But the wiki document refers to global severity. The FL action plan, as is true for every state/county's action plan, refers to local severity. By the logic you're applying, schools should not be closing down in affected areas and sporting events and other public gatherings should not be affected. Yet we see that across the country and around the world, these things are happening on a limited, community by community basis. Therefore, I think that gives evidence that my interpretation is correct.

Think this through for a moment. This does involve speculation, and I'm very interested to hear your thoughts on it. So far, we have had innumerable cases in which a single student at a particular school in a particular town tests positive for swine flu (not in FL, but in other states). A dozen or so other students are swabbed. Eventually a fair number come back positive. The entire school is shut down, possibly just for a day or two's cleaning, possibly for ten days or more. The outbreak spreads to other parts of that city. One of our other posters here is in just such an affected community, which has been deploying containment measures including social distancing.

Now, assume that the single case from Disney of the man who traveled from Mexico comes back confirmed. There are still 70+ samples outstanding, as well as hundreds of other people who have been treated in the Disney area for flu-like symptoms but were not swabbed. Would logic and previous experience not dictate that it is statistically likely that at least some of those other cases would, in fact, be attributable to swine flu?

Now, if you are the FL Department of Health, and you have gotten confirmation of swine flu at the single largest tourist destination in the world, and there have been hundreds of other people treated for flu-like symptoms, what do you do? Do you sit back and say, well, that was probably an anomaly, so let's let people come? Or do you say, wait a minute. We have a plan of action in place that is no different from those in other communities around the world, maybe it's time to implement it?

Disney is a wonderful, magical, special place to millions of people. But ultimately, from a purely numbers perspective, it's a known breeding ground for germs and a potential ground zero for a massive outbreak. It's also a moneymaker, so no one is going to close it without reason. But can you imagine the lawsuits if the worst happened--a humongous outbreak of a rapidly mutating virulent strain of swine flu--and the FL Dept of Health had sat back and let it happen? They're going to err on the side of caution when public health and safety are involved.
 
Yesterday (or the day before), the CDC said their information will be behind. Earlier this week, there were only 3 labs that knew how to test for it. Many test results were taking days to be run. As more labs are trained, the tests are happening quicker, but it also means the CDC is having a harder time keeping up with all the numbers.

The CDC is putting more responsibility on the states to maintain their information and update the CDC periodically.

Just saw this:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090501/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/med_swine_flu

In the United States, the confirmed case count stood at 132. State lab operators say there are more cases than the confirmed number because they are not testing all suspected cases, focusing on finding new outbreak hot spots and limiting the flu's spread.


Might explain why some confirmations are so slow in coming? :confused3
 

My sister's biggest concern is the airplane ride and that if someone SNEEZES the droplets have "no where to go" (she used to work as a nurse, but doesn't anymore). She raises a big point, which is probably the concerns others have raised here. The best I can do is take a vitamin and drink plenty of water and wash my hands well and things like that.
 
Where can I get some of this swine flu? That way I can bring it with me to WDW and share :grouphug:
To be perfectly honest I'd rather get it now so I know we won't get it when we leave on May 27th for our 1st cruise!:rotfl2:
 
But the wiki document refers to global severity. The FL action plan, as is true for every state/county's action plan, refers to local severity. By the logic you're applying, schools should not be closing down in affected areas and sporting events and other public gatherings should not be affected. Yet we see that across the country and around the world, these things are happening on a limited, community by community basis. Therefore, I think that gives evidence that my interpretation is correct.

Think this through for a moment. This does involve speculation, and I'm very interested to hear your thoughts on it. So far, we have had innumerable cases in which a single student at a particular school in a particular town tests positive for swine flu (not in FL, but in other states). A dozen or so other students are swabbed. Eventually a fair number come back positive. The entire school is shut down, possibly just for a day or two's cleaning, possibly for ten days or more. The outbreak spreads to other parts of that city. One of our other posters here is in just such an affected community, which has been deploying containment measures including social distancing.

Now, assume that the single case from Disney of the man who traveled from Mexico comes back confirmed. There are still 70+ samples outstanding, as well as hundreds of other people who have been treated in the Disney area for flu-like symptoms but were not swabbed. Would logic and previous experience not dictate that it is statistically likely that at least some of those other cases would, in fact, be attributable to swine flu?

Now, if you are the FL Department of Health, and you have gotten confirmation of swine flu at the single largest tourist destination in the world, and there have been hundreds of other people treated for flu-like symptoms, what do you do? Do you sit back and say, well, that was probably an anomaly, so let's let people come? Or do you say, wait a minute. We have a plan of action in place that is no different from those in other communities around the world, maybe it's time to implement it?

Disney is a wonderful, magical, special place to millions of people. But ultimately, from a purely numbers perspective, it's a known breeding ground for germs and a potential ground zero for a massive outbreak. It's also a moneymaker, so no one is going to close it without reason. But can you imagine the lawsuits if the worst happened--a humongous outbreak of a rapidly mutating virulent strain of swine flu--and the FL Dept of Health had sat back and let it happen? They're going to err on the side of caution when public health and safety are involved.

Could you imagine the lawsuit if the government shuts down businesses like Disney, Universal Studios, Sea World, and Busch Gardens to err on the side of caution and nothing happens.
 
/
Where can I get some of this swine flu? That way I can bring it with me to WDW and share :grouphug:

st-184.jpg
 
At Orlando International Airport, almost all passengers on an incoming Aeromexico flight Thursday afternoon wore blue masks provided at the airport in Mexico City, passengers said. Irene and Jorge Flores of Mexico were on their way to Miami for a family cruise reunion but said they would have postponed their plans if they hadn't been arranged a year in advance. Irene Flores, 43, held up her mask and a bottle of hand sanitizer and pronounced the swine-flu situation "scary."

"We are afraid of people sneezing or talking to you in crowded areas," she said.

Ok this paragraph above makes no sense to me. Many of you may not agree with me but that is ok b/c I have been diagnosed with OCD in this thread!:lmao::lmao:

Ok so let me get this straight. If you live in Mexico, starting today they want you to stay in your home until May 5th to try and stop the spread of this virus. BUT, if you live in Mexico you are allowed to get your trusty blue mask and hand sanitizer and come to Florida to board a cruise ship in Miami.:confused3

Now do they keep the blue mask for the whole cruise or only when they left Mexico? Call me crazy, just not OCD b/c that has already been taken,:rotfl: but if I was going on a cruise with my family and saw people coming from Mexico wearing blue masks and getting onto the same ship I am on you can bet I would be worried. I would not panic unless the green light for panic time had been turned on but yes, I would be worried. Just like I would not go to Mexico right now I am not so sure being confined on a cruise ship I would want Mexico brought to me. But hey, that's just me. Now I understand when the president said that closing the boarder now would be like shutting the barn door after the horses got out. While yes, I can see where they are coming from with that scenerio I guess you can look at it 2 ways.

If farmer #1 had a broken barn door and a bunch of horses got out as soon as the farmer noticed the broken door open he would not go in and close it to keep the horses that were still in the barn from getting out. Instead he would look at the ones that were still there and say "well I am going to leave the barn door open b/c some of the other horses took off so just do whatever you want to do. Stay or leave it's up to you.

But then there is farmer #2. He has a broken barn door and when he notices that it is open and some of his horses have gotten out he goes over and puts each horse in an individual stable to keep them inside until he can fix the broken barn door. He does this because he does not want his remaining horses to cause any more unnecessary damage to other farms then had already been done.

Sorry, flame me, torch me, call me names but if I had to live near one of those farmers I would pick farmer #2.
 
Could you imagine the lawsuit if the government shuts down businesses like Disney, Universal Studios, Sea World, and Busch Gardens to err on the side of caution and nothing happens.

Yes I can and they would get $0. State and federal government agencies still enjoy pretty extensive governmental immunity protection. There was even a similar case brought years back in NY regarding this.
 
Yes I can and they would get $0. State and federal government agencies still enjoy pretty extensive governmental immunity protection. There was even a similar case brought years back in NY regarding this.

Let's put this in a different light. Can you imagine the budget shortfalls that the state and local governments would have when you shut down the tourist industry in Florida (who is HEAVILY reliant upon the tourist industry). To err on the side of caution would be catastrophic for them. But I guess the federal government would bail them out.
 
Let's put this in a different light. Can you imagine the budget shortfalls that the state and local governments would have when you shut down the tourist industry in Florida (who is HEAVILY reliant upon the tourist industry). To err on the side of caution would be catastrophic for them. But I guess the federal government would bail them out.

That's true, although from a tourism economics perspective Disney is a strong player. I remember in economics there was the concept of elasticity, for example - price elasticity. The concept being that products are affected as you change prices up and down. Higher price = lower demand. Some goods are more inelastic and the effects of pricing would have a lower affect - like gasoline and insulin. Disney, as far as vacation spots go, is highly inelastic. There are not, for most visitors, any alternatives. For instance, if you had a vacation booked to the Bahamas, and there was reason it was not viable, you could simply book Jamaica. But Disney is singular. I think if 100 people on this board had to cancel next weeks trip, 90 would simply rebook for a date within a few months. I guess the time value of money could come into play. Just thinkin.
 
Keep in mind...swine flu is a virus. Antibacterial hand sanitizer will be ineffective on killing the germs.
Not so.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/gurley/detail?blogid=114&entry_id=39292

Here's a link to the study mentioned there -- it's a government site, and the test was specific to the H1N1 virus. The conclusion of the study: "HH [hand hygiene] with SW [soap-and-water] or alcohol-based hand rub is highly effective in reducing influenza A virus on human hands, although SW is the most effective intervention."

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/...nel.Pubmed_DefaultReportPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum

Given the fact that soap and water are often not within reach when hands need to be cleaned, I'm glad hand sanitizers are available. They do work against the flu virus. They aren't antibiotics (which won't work against a virus), which is where I think some of the confusion arises -- they are alcohol-based.

SSB
 
This might be a dumb question but if you get it once can you get it again.

No you get a wristband that shows you've already had it and then the virus isn't allowed to visit it's carnage upon you again! :happytv:

Actually, that might not be true.


You can get it again - just like any other strain of the flu.
 
Not so.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/gurley/detail?blogid=114&entry_id=39292

Here's a link to the study mentioned there -- it's a government site, and the test was specific to the H1N1 virus. The conclusion of the study: "HH [hand hygiene] with SW [soap-and-water] or alcohol-based hand rub is highly effective in reducing influenza A virus on human hands, although SW is the most effective intervention."

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/...nel.Pubmed_DefaultReportPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum

Given the fact that soap and water are often not within reach when hands need to be cleaned, I'm glad hand sanitizers are available. They do work against the flu virus. They aren't antibiotics (which won't work against a virus), which is where I think some of the confusion arises -- they are alcohol-based.

SSB

I think the original poster you cite would agree. They seem to be saying that antibacterials won't work, i.e. you need alcohol based products as described in the study you refer to.
 
Does anyone know if people are wearing masks on planes?

My DH travels like once every 2 yrs and just found out he has to go to TX in 2wks for two days. He's flying in to Dallas. Of all times and places for crying out loud!!!

I'm not overly concerned about this in general but that does make me a little nervous!
 
No you get a wristband that shows you've already had it and then the virus isn't allowed to visit it's carnage upon you again! :happytv:

Actually, that might not be true.


You can get it again - just like any other strain of the flu.

No you can't, it would be a different strain.
 

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