Our last trip, we thought they would cancel Fantasmic, but they didn't. The theater was full, and there were "nearby" thunderstorms. As in, you could see lighting in the distance, and the lighting would even illuminate the big "mountain" structure from behind (oddly enough, the structure was largely transparent - you could see the framework when the lightning flashed - what did they make it out of???). But, the storms stayed far enough away and the show went on anyway. I imagine their weather predictions are pretty good there, since I really thought the thing was going to be cancelled, and if the storm had moved our direction a bit, we'd have been right in it, but we stayed rain and lighting-free the whole time. The CMs did warn us (when we asked) that they would cancel the performance if the storm came out way. And, (which was our main concern), if you have the Fantasmic dinner package, there's no "raincheck".