Stopped considering DVC this week. Anyone else?

[bookwormde]

Just like those who stay on site cash the value analysis of DVC has to consider the overall experience including perks, While not guaranteed, they may be the tipping point for some as to heading one direction or another as far as buying or selling DVC

 

[5th gate dreamers]

Agreed. Take the emotion out of the decision.
We almost bought DVC 15 years ago, when it really was a good deal. But we passed, and never regretted it. We have had 15 years of great family trips and memories, at WDW ... and not at WDW. We found several vacations spots we love, just as much as WDW.

That's the point. Memorable family vacations can happen ANYWHERE and you don't need an expensive time-share DVC to create memories, not even at Disney.

DVC is a contract for annual points towards resort stays. Thats it. No AP discount, No DME, no EMH, no lounges ... none of that is in the DVC contract. So buying DVC as if those were in the contract, incorrectly impacts your decision-making.

you are correct that you shouldnt buy with the hope of perks. you are buying prepaid vacation...nothing more or less. however, you are wrong with it being a choice between disney all the time and other vacations. we will use our contract not more than 15 times over 50 years, and use the profits from point rental for the other places in the world we like to go. dvc is a smart purchase whether you go once a year or once ever.

 

[Matty B13]

you are correct that you shouldnt buy with the hope of perks. you are buying prepaid vacation...nothing more or less. however, you are wrong with it being a choice between disney all the time and other vacations. we will use our contract not more than 15 times over 50 years, and use the profits from point rental for the other places in the world we like to go. dvc is a smart purchase whether you go once a year or once ever.

Maybe, if dues outpace the rate at which you can rent your points out, then you would be losing money. Right now rental prices are pretty good, but from what I have read, because we have only owned since 2016, rental prices haven't always been so much higher than dues.

 

[tline35]

you are wrong with it being a choice between disney all the time and other vacations.

I don't think i said anything like that.

Renting points, is only income for other vacations, for the portion that is more than the annual dues.

 

[Bruggok]

The glut of lowly priced confirmed reservations shows supply/demand imbalance. This can’t continue forever without affecting rental price. Prospective buyer should buy with aim of staying there every 1-3 years, without consideration of rental income.

 

[fumanchu2488]

Maybe, if dues outpace the rate at which you can rent your points out, then you would be losing money. Right now rental prices are pretty good, but from what I have read, because we have only owned since 2016, rental prices haven't always been so much higher than dues.

But your missing part of the equation. Rentals rates are based on cash rates. If Disney devalues on site stays enough where they have to lower room prices and offer deeper discounts then cash rates would be much closer to rental rates. Or rental rates need to come down. If that happens, you are fighting 2 things: rental costs coming down and dues going up. An extreme scenario could see that point happening in the next few years where the cost of DVC essentially gives you no benefit to staying on site using cash. They will always be able to compare to “rack rates” but if you know there are 30-40% discounts and you don’t get locked in long term there could be an issue.

 

[RoseGold]

They will always be able to compare to “rack rates” but if you know there are 30-40% discounts and you don’t get locked in long term there could be an issue.

I just booked a fall 2021 Poly stay for a friend and compared it to cash rate, and it was $834/night. That's midweek, during a school week.

This is WHY I bought Poly, but seeing the math was pretty stark.

 

[limace]

It’s definitely making me take a pause. We are hoping to go in May-we are west coasters, so most our trips are to DL and we own at GCV. My eldest hasn’t been to WDW in 12 years, we got cheap flights, so we are hoping to do a week at the world and three nights at universal. I only have points for three or four of those days-don’t want to use my GCV points-so was going to do a transfer or perhaps a cash stay at a FW cabin. But when I really calculate what I get for on-site-well, it’s nothing except distance. So I think we will do the rest of our week offsite (we use Lyft for most our transportation anyway), a few days at AKV with the animals, then back to the fabulous Hard Rock at Universal which still offers the express pass benefit.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I put the brakes on an add-on.

We have just enough points for yearly or 2 years on, 1 year off, trips. However, we wanted to start expanding our points in anticipation of the family growing and multigenerational trips and an increase in our visits in retirement, etc. Disney was the ""long-term family plan" for vacations. I'll admit, we've been contemplating add-on's for a long time and have decided against it many times for various reasons. The difference is, all the other times we just decided we could wait a little longer. We just didn't quite need the points yet. I didn't want to be stuck with points to rent all the time, etc. This time, it's that we don't know if we will ever want any more at all.

This isn't about DVC. It's about Disney as a whole. I haven't travelled during covid, but over the last few years I've just noticed things not as clean or kept up as well, the food quality has declined, the crowds for special events are insane (these used to be more limited and worth the price as far as I can tell), the MDE app kind of sucks, making reservations for all of it is a PITA, and I absolutely hate the FP system.

No annual pass was my biggest recent complaint (hoping just temporary), but the removal of DME, luggage check-in, etc though is the last straw. We have 2 young adult daughters (one just 18) and had been planning on letting them use the points on their own / with friends for the next few years as it is hard at the moment for us all to get a lot of time off to travel together. So, we figured as we were building up our points, the girls could just use them for long weekends, etc. With no APs and no "free" / easy / safe trans.... just forget it.

I will also say that even merchandise quality is in serious decline. I spent quite a bit of $$ with my 30% discount for Christmas gifts and was disappointed in all but a few items. Some examples:

Several pairs of leggings for me and my DDs: One came with a hole in it, all are so thin...when you bend (even just bending at the knees) they become see-through.

Some PJs (female): Very thin, not very soft, I have seen better at Target.

PJ bottoms for DH: The pocket inside on one side was sewn incorrectly and is not as deep - unusable. It's weird.

Of course, none of these things were really noticed until washed and worn. Also, I purchased them really early (like maybe October) so, basically we got stuck with it all.

Anyway, that was more of a side-rant! lol

But the magic and quality seems to be fading. I don't want it to be true. I really don't. But Disney seems to be costing more yet cheaping out on all the little things that made it special.

If APs don't return, we will definitely give off-site a shot and re-evaluate. We will probably keep our small contract no matter what for any discounts and for a few nights whenever we can at Boardwalk. It actually gets us 5-6 nights in a standard studio, but long term 1 studio isn't going to cut it. So, maybe we get 2 nights in a 2 bedroom for our Epcot / HS days and that's all we get onsite.

 

[limace]

I’m having some fun rabbit-holing today looking at offsite rentals. Gorgeous 5 bedroom homes with themed rooms and private pools for $180-five minutes away. I think I’m going to make my 14 year old daughter, Else, stay in a Frozen room. She will die.

 

[Sandisw]

Maybe, if dues outpace the rate at which you can rent your points out, then you would be losing money. Right now rental prices are pretty good, but from what I have read, because we have only owned since 2016, rental prices haven't always been so much higher than dues.

To add, most of what is changing is not related to DVC, but being onsite guests of WDW.

So, cash guests may go the way some DVC owners...or potential owners..go and that is offsite,

If that happens, rental market won’t be what it is now....and the competition will be fierce with Disney hotels if they are seeing the loss of guests.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I don't know... maybe none of this is a big deal....
maybe I'm just bitter since when we bought our DVC, many of our family members were scrounging up all their spare cash and buying bitcoin. I thought they were crazy and I was happy as could be with my purchase. Now, I'm simply not feeling very smart!

 

[RoseGold]

maybe I'm just bitter since when we bought our DVC, many of our family members were scrounging up all their spare cash and buying bitcoin. I thought they were crazy and I was happy as could be with my purchase. Now, I'm simply not feeling very smart!

Yea, well, who owns more swamp land in FL now???

 

[ITGirl50]

OP, you're not alone. We were also seriously considering a large purchase and this month completely changed our minds. The math has over-ruled what our hearts were wanting.

It now makes zero sense to stay DVC, or on property at all, with none of the perks. Even renting DVC points to stay on property doesn't add up for us. We normally stay offsite, and the only reason we were considering DVC was to get the EMH, an early fp booking window, free magic bands, ME, etc. But now? No way.

We are planning on going to Disney next spring and would need a grand villa for the size of our family. To rent a DVC grand villa would cost between $6,000-$14,000 for the week. If we bought resale DVC at one of the cheaper resorts (ie: OKW), taking into account buy-in cost per annum and dues, that number equals out to about $4,000-$10,000 for the week.

To rent a 6 bedroom pool home on a beautiful resort, 5 minutes drive from Disney gates: $2,500.00 for the week.

It's literally a no brainer. No way would we pay an exponentially higher rate to have zero perks. If we have to rent a car or uber anyway, I can go and enjoy Disney just fine from my luxury pool villa for a fraction of the cost. If they bring back perks, we may change our minds in the future. But, not as things stand right now.

Unless you plan to take this huge trip every other year, the long term commitment of DVC would never make sense. Buying resale points would still cost $30k-$40k to have enough for a week at a grand villa and you would have to wait 2 months to get the points if it passed ROFR. If it didn’t pass, you would have to start all over again. A lot of OKW and SSR points are not passing ROFR. Staying off property sounds like a great choice for this trip.

I personally think if you are going to stay at OKW or SSR you might as well stay off property (unless you want to spend a lot of time at Disney Springs), especially if you don’t get ME or EMH. It’s worth it to pay on property prices if you are a short walk, boat ride, monorail or sky liner ride to the park. The perk of very close proximity to a park will always win over staying off property.

 

[RanDIZ]

I don't know... maybe none of this is a big deal....
maybe I'm just bitter since when we bought our DVC, many of our family members were scrounging up all their spare cash and buying bitcoin. I thought they were crazy and I was happy as could be with my purchase. Now, I'm simply not feeling very smart!

Don’t worry. When they wake up one day and realize their “unregulated” bitcoin all of a sudden disappeared, DVC will still be standing. We can always call MS. Who will they call?

 

[RanDIZ]

But your missing part of the equation. Rentals rates are based on cash rates. If Disney devalues on site stays enough where they have to lower room prices and offer deeper discounts then cash rates would be much closer to rental rates. Or rental rates need to come down. If that happens, you are fighting 2 things: rental costs coming down and dues going up. An extreme scenario could see that point happening in the next few years where the cost of DVC essentially gives you no benefit to staying on site using cash. They will always be able to compare to “rack rates” but if you know there are 30-40% discounts and you don’t get locked in long term there could be an issue.

There’s going to be a lot of changes going forward, but I can tell you one change that won’t happen. That’s Disney lowering the price of anything. In my lifetime, I can’t remember them lowering any prices. Most of their so called discounts are all smoke and mirrors. Free dining=spend more money on certain room types and add park hopper in order to qualify.

 

[Eric Smith]

I don't know... maybe none of this is a big deal....
maybe I'm just bitter since when we bought our DVC, many of our family members were scrounging up all their spare cash and buying bitcoin. I thought they were crazy and I was happy as could be with my purchase. Now, I'm simply not feeling very smart!

I'd feel much better about the long term value of DVC than the long term value of bitcoin. Bitcoin is just speculating on others' tolerance for speculation.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Don’t worry. When they wake up one day and realize their “unregulated” bitcoin all of a sudden disappeared, DVC will still be standing. We can always call MS. Who will they call?

I'd feel much better about the long term value of DVC than the long term value of bitcoin. Bitcoin is just speculating on others' tolerance for speculation.

It probably doesn't matter anyway since I'd be one of the "bitcoin millionaires" that lost their password or threw away their hard drive or whatever! That's totally something I would do! lol

 

[Carol_]

It probably doesn't matter anyway since I'd be one of the "bitcoin millionaires" that lost their password or threw away their hard drive or whatever! That's totally something I would do! lol

Me too!

 

[fumanchu2488]

There’s going to be a lot of changes going forward, but I can tell you one change that won’t happen. That’s Disney lowering the price of anything. In my lifetime, I can’t remember them lowering any prices. Most of their so called discounts are all smoke and mirrors. Free dining=spend more money on certain room types and add park hopper in order to qualify.

Agree. I guess I was saying you could see the $700/night rack rate for less than $300 with discounts, tickets, and dining. That really changes the equation. Kind of like Vegas were certain weeks and seasons would see very high room rates and all others would be incredibly discounted. That is unless they incentivize the on site stay again with more benefits.