Still buying DVC despite potential park changes

[DisMomKY]

I think there will be a lot of good resale contracts available towards the end of the year. I would not be in any hurry to purchase right now.

I think the only concern with waiting longer to buy would be when people plan to vacation next year

 

[DVCsloth]

I think the only concern with waiting longer to buy would be when people plan to vacation next year

Good point. Just remember if it has banked points to pay attention to when they expire.

 

[Nappy1380]

I have yet to see any bargain basement prices recently, at least not on SSR. The listings I'm seeing are still all very close in price to what my contract was listed for back in February ??

I remember keeping tabs on you in the Q1 buying thread as we both paid close to the same for SSR. We paid $95/point and it wasn't until today where I noticed a rash of listings below that point. I suspect we will see quite a few sub $90/point contacts passing in no time.

Very interested to see where the bottom is as the panic selling is certainly starting. I just wonder how many contracts can Disney absorb before they waive the white flag.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

I think there will be a lot of good resale contracts available towards the end of the year. I would not be in any hurry to purchase right now.

Is anyone feeling driven by FOLO--Fear Of Losing Out?

I have been looking at the resale prices the last few years thinking --Man, I wish I had bought more points 10 years ago!!

Just six weeks ago, prices were sky high. However, right now I see a few contracts out there for SSR in the mid 90's, and I am very tempted. I would hate to miss out....

Also, I know that many are affected monetarily by this virus, but I have also heard some people saying they are actually saving money (obviously people whose jobs were not affected) because they aren't shopping, vacationing, and they are eating at home. Therefore, is it possible that the market won't be affected as much as we are all speculating because there will be other cash inserted into the market?

 

[DVCsloth]

Is anyone feeling driven by FOLO--Fear Of Losing Out?

I have been looking at the resale prices the last few years thinking --Man, I wish I had bought more points 10 years ago!!

Just six weeks ago, prices were sky high. However, right now I see a few contracts out there for SSR in the mid 90's, and I am very tempted. I would hate to miss out....

Also, I know that many are affected monetarily by this virus, but I have also heard some people saying they are actually saving money (obviously people whose jobs were not affected) because they aren't shopping, vacationing, and they are eating at home. Therefore, is it possible that the market won't be affected as much as we are all speculating because there will be other cash inserted into the market?

I was paying attention last year around annual dues time and noticed a lot of good contracts all of a sudden popped up. They stayed around for a good month or so and were mostly all bought up. I ended up adding on direct because I didn't want to bother with all the restriction mess.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Prices are still way too high IMO. Prices quickly inflated last year and have yet to slide past late 2018 prices. My guess is prices will go even lower. I don't have any spreadsheets to justify this, just 25 years observation as an owner, buying and selling. The sheer number of contracts for sale seems to have grown substantially this week and the amount of valuable, loaded contracts is growing as well. IMO, the only way for an owner to even get an offer on a contract right now is to list at an eye catching price. The listings that are large, stripped, priced too high and/or have a "can close after" date are totally lost in the mix. I also expect many of the currently "under agreement" contracts will fall apart and just show up again as new contracts and perhaps many of the contracts that popped up in the last few days are some of those contracts?

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

I was paying attention last year around annual dues time and noticed a lot of good contracts all of a sudden popped up. They stayed around for a good month or so and were mostly all bought up. I ended up adding on direct because I didn't want to bother with all the restriction mess.

So when were you looking? Would they list in October-ish?

 

[DVCsloth]

So when were you looking? Would they list in October-ish?

I think it was around Nov-Dec

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

I think it was around Nov-Dec

Sounds good! Thanks!

 

[E2ME2]

What would be the price to entice you for SSR? Just curious--we are also looking at a small possible add-on.

Well, being that I am not 100% done with my current contract I would really need a low price on a small point contract.
I will be on the lookout for anything listed at $80/Pt or under for SSR.
The resale contract I just closed on was listed for $96/Pt but sold at ~ $89/Pt.
The stats that the board owner provides monthly had shown that Disney had exercised ROFR at SSR at $85/Pt last month so I think I just got by them on that one.
AND - now that I have an additional 225 points, I won't be looking for that large of an add-on at this time.
BUT - If I see 75 to 80 points listed at $80 I would definitely capitalize on that.
ET

 

[fixerupper]

We just closed out contract today. I put in the offer in early Feb. I paid more than I wanted to, but got them down quite a bit still, because they were way over priced. At the time, it was in-line, but on the high end of the contracts. I figured the money isn't spent in the contract, but the yearly fees, so $5/pt really wasn't that big a deal. Now I have 2018 points that I am not sure we can or should use. I guess since we are cutting it so close, those were always iffy anyway, but I was hopeful the process would move along a little quicker.

I am not sorry I did it. I believe we will get many years of use and enjoyment from it. However, if I had spent a few more weeks looking, I would be holding off for better deals now. I did buy less points then I initially set out to, and I am glad I did. For several reasons, but I am going to keep my eye on VGF for good deals. I'd love to flesh out the rest of my points in VGF.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

I will be on the lookout for anything listed at $80/Pt or under for SSR.
The resale contract I just closed on was listed for $96/Pt but sold at ~ $89/Pt.
The stats that the board owner provides monthly had shown that Disney had exercised ROFR at SSR at $85/Pt last month so I think I just got by them on that one.

I am thinking the same way you are. I would love to pick something up in the lower 80's. I actually made an offer on two contracts in the last week--there were multiple offers on both and we lost out. Both sold at $93 and were listed around $95/96. However, one broker told me that anything below $95 was a definite ROFR. But you saw some 80's going through? That's good to know!

 

[EM Lawrence]

I have seen what looks like a flood of listings with one broker yesterday and today. I wonder if sellers are trying to attract offers before the April sales data is released? I suspect we won't see any ROFR in April and that will embolden low ball offers. Just a hunch.

 

[Minniesgal]

I understand your concern, but I just bought, and passed ROFR. My thoughts...now is the time to buy because you can get a great deal. I bought 220 points at Boulder Ridge Wilderness Lodge at $88 per point. My feeling is things will definitely get back to a near normal, in time. Once there is a vaccine, it will be like any other disease that you can prevent (predictions are 12-18 months, possibly sooner). I'm in it for the long haul. I'm very confident that in time, I will have zero regrets. Just my opinion Good luck with your decision.

If there is a vaccine not when finding one is far from given. No other known corona virus has a vaccine.

 

[ray3127]

Hi everyone,

I don’t mean for this post to sound all doom and gloom but I was wondering if anyone was considering DVC pre-COVID that isn’t so sure now? I’m a huge Disney fan and was constantly on thesearch for my perfect DVC contract prior to COVID, and then even when it happened I was hoping to find a deal. Now that some rumored park changes have been going around, it has me questioning whether I want to buy DVC at all. I just don’t know if Disney will be the same Disney I love after this and it makes me hesitant about making such a high cost commitment. Is anyone else feeling the same way? I’m also hoping to hear from others who can make me feel better about the whole situation.

We were looking at adding on to our DVC portfolio, but have pumped the brakes over the last month. While I trust that Disney will come back in full force eventually, I am growing more concerned about how long that will take and what Disney will look like in the interim.

I also don't think we are really close to a bottom on prices. Somebody mentioned in another thread that DVC prices lag; it took a while after 2008-09 to see prices truly drop. They've dipped slightly, but I'm afraid we are far from the bottom. I *hope* I'm wrong, and if so I will gladly pay a little more for that add-on contract. But I think lower prices are coming later this year and will persist into next year.

OP, I completely understand your concerns, and think it is wise to wait it out a little. At least until Disney makes announcements regarding opening dates and procedures... then you will have a better idea of what to expect. Disney has never closed in this manner before, and there's just not enough information to make a sound decision right now. It's a gamble, and one I'm not willing to take. Again, I HOPE I am wrong and Disney is back to normal sooner rather than later, but there's too much unknown right now for me to buy any more points.