Spring Direct Incentives 2/9-4/27

[eticketplease]

That's often repeated, but probably not true. It was an analysis done years ago of how long contracts that were resold were held by the previous owner. It did not consider contracts that were not resold, and of course there are now resorts that are older (and have longer-held contracts) than they were then.

Yes I know it's not likely true.

However if it were and sold I would think that dollars and cents would matter at that point with PVB bringing in a larger bang for the buck over SSR

 

[VGCgroupie]

Yes I know it's not likely true.

However if it were and sold I would think that dollars and cents would matter at that point with PVB bringing in a larger bang for the buck over SSR

I also would argue that times have changed and nowadays people buy and sell things more than in the past. This is true with homes, cars etc. I would bet selling DVC is much more prominent now than it used to be due to ease of selling along with what I just mentioned.

 

[Brian Noble]

This is true with homes

You think so? As someone who just bought one, all I have been hearing is that there are a large number of people with golden handcuffs that cannot afford to move because they'd give up their sub-3% mortgage to take on one at 6%+.

The folks here claim that median tenure has increased from 2012-2022. It has gone down some from lockdown forward, and extrapolating that you might get back below 2012 levels.

https://www.rubyhome.com/blog/average-length-homeownership/

This has a pretty similar number of 12 years. It also notes that homes sold has decreased steadily since the lockdown-induced work-from-home relocation.

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/movers/housing-market-trends.html

 

[VGCgroupie]

You think so? As someone who just bought one, all I have been hearing is that there are a large number of people with golden handcuffs that cannot afford to move because they'd give up their sub-3% mortgage to take on one at 6%+.

The folks here claim that median tenure has increased from 2012-2022. It has gone down some from lockdown forward, and extrapolating that you might get back below 2012 levels.

https://www.rubyhome.com/blog/average-length-homeownership/

This has a pretty similar number of 12 years. It also notes that homes sold has decreased steadily since the lockdown-induced work-from-home relocation.

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/movers/housing-market-trends.html

There was a huge unexpected market hiccup/shocker that caused many to stay in their homes. Now that it has been around awhile more people are beginning to sell and move once again. (interest rates) These charts show people are staying 12 years not til death which is what being DVC was being compared too. Keeping that same contract for its life or the owners life.

 

[Brian Noble]

It is not clear to me that reasons I might want to (or have to) sell my home are the same as the reasons I might want to (or have to) sell a timeshare. Some of them are--dying, for example--but definitely not all of them. I mean, they are both real estate, but they play VERY different roles in my life.

 

[VGCgroupie]

It is not clear to me that reasons I might want to (or have to) sell my home are the same as the reasons I might want to (or have to) sell a timeshare. Some of them are--dying, for example--but definitely not all of them. I mean, they are both real estate, but they play VERY different roles in my life.

Everyone is different. My personal residences, my history is sold my first after 2 years, sold the the next after 9 months, sold the next after 16 years, the next after 3 years, the next after 2 years, now in my current 1 year and I don't see this as a forever home. Each one of my sales was for a very different reason. It's very possible I am more committed to my DVC home resorts than my actual home currently.

 

[CWTC]

It's very possible I am more committed to my DVC home resorts than my actual home currently.

So I hadn’t thought about it in those terms but since we bought our first contract in 2009, we have moved to and then left the west coast, lived in 4 states, and bought/sold 4 houses. Wow.

 

[Brian Noble]

It's very possible I am more committed to my DVC home resorts than my actual home currently.

I would not be surprised if that were true for timeshare owners generally.

I've moved four times in the past eight years, though prior to that I was in the same place for 15 or so. My timeshare portfolio is much more stable, even counting the gratuitous/quit-claim transfers of several from joint to individual ownership when my ex and I split things up.

I'm hoping the current place lasts a good ten---that will take me to retirement. I'd like to stay there longer, but it is a two-story bungalow and the stairs might become a burden.

 

[heelphan]

I was just thinking about this. I might well be in that camp---I am a Villa person, and there is a 50% point premium to go from Resort View 1BR at SSR to Resort View 1BR at PVB. I am not sure PVB warrants that, but that's just me.

Then again, I have a long history of enjoying DVC's red-headed step children, so maybe I'm just being contrary for the sake of it.

Agree with this also - the point chart on the villas is very high at Poly tower. We are a family of 4 with 2 tweens that are ready to have more space so we are beginning to graduate to the 1 bedrooms. This summer I can get a 1 bedroom at Kidani, for example, for between 27-36 points a night whereas a 1 bedroom at Poly would be between 40-63 points per night.

If I'm never going to use the 150 at Poly with the 11 month advantage, my thought was why not get more points to use AND my blue card?

 

[VGCgroupie]

Agree with this also - the point chart on the villas is very high at Poly tower. We are a family of 4 with 2 tweens that are ready to have more space so we are beginning to graduate to the 1 bedrooms. This summer I can get a 1 bedroom at Kidani, for example, for between 27-36 points a night whereas a 1 bedroom at Poly would be between 40-63 points per night.

If I'm never going to use the 150 at Poly with the 11 month advantage, my thought was why not get more points to use AND my blue card?

What is the blue card for? Perks? Because if its to stay at new restricted resorts you will always have that high point chart problem its not going to be just Poly with high point charts.

 

[heelphan]

What is the blue card for? Perks? Because if its to stay at new restricted resorts you will always have that high point chart problem its not going to be just Poly with high point charts.

Yes, a big part of it is the Sorcerer's Pass. It will save us $2k per year on our annual passes.

 

[Tatebeck]

Agree with this also - the point chart on the villas is very high at Poly tower. We are a family of 4 with 2 tweens that are ready to have more space so we are beginning to graduate to the 1 bedrooms. This summer I can get a 1 bedroom at Kidani, for example, for between 27-36 points a night whereas a 1 bedroom at Poly would be between 40-63 points per night.

If I'm never going to use the 150 at Poly with the 11 month advantage, my thought was why not get more points to use AND my blue card?

Room category/view definitely matters, but IMO it is again more of a disadvantage for SSR SAP contracts. Unless you are buying because you love SSR and want the preferred locations or the cheapest standard views there, then go ahead and ignore this and welcome home!

If buying SAP points you often get any view category you want at your home resort (barring outliers with super low quantities like AKV club/value rooms), but will usually have to get a room in a more expensive view category in any room you grab at 7 months.

• SSR owners will have access to SSR Resort rooms available but usually need to book preferred and up for any other resorts (SAP)
• Poly owners will have Poly Resort rooms available but usually will have to book preferred and up for any other resorts
• RIV owners will have RIV Resort rooms available but usually will have to book preferred and up for any other resorts
• ... and so on. It's kind of like a SAP tax.

So let's say you use any direct SAP points to stay at Poly, RIV, BLT, over 3 years. If you use SSR (or any other resort) points you would likely have spent MORE points on those same 3 stays than if you owned Poly, RIV, or BLT and had access to easy Resort rooms for at least 1 of those 3 years. And if you have some points at all 3, then you get the shot at the cheaper view rooms for all 3!

 

[Mikey15]

Is this factoring 200 vs 200 or SSR 200 vs PVB 150?

The reason I ask was originally it was brought up that I can buy 50 more points as SSR so I wasn't sure if you are factoring dues on 50 less points at PVB

So many variables that brings up too! 200pts at SSR is a week in a 1BR or two in a Studio! Depending on view category and time of year. 150pts at Poly doesn’t go nearly as far.

Then that brings up the question of what if you’re comparing them as SAP? Which is fair since the Poly math is good, but there’s still a use case difference between 150 & 200 SAP.

I also didn’t run anything but I’m guessing 150 direct + 50 resale SSR maths out better than 200 direct, even with the new contract fee. There remains reduced benefit to direct over 150 (only saves the 50 point difference from being locked out of future resorts).

 

[Disney.dad]

Yep, and SSR is faster to 0. In 2054 it will have lost 100% of value while Poly will have lost maybe 50% or less? Or maybe 75% if very unlucky?

With inflation which will happen in 2054 Poly may be worth almost as much as it is now or potentially a little more with 12 years remaining on what is likely to be a loved resort still. Part of that factor will be what dues due vs the cash price. In 28 years if you factor 3% inflation per year in the cost to buy DVC direct new resorts will cost 2.28x what they do now. Interesting enough will be what happens with over saturation if they sell say 150 resorts units (room equivalents) per year.

 

[DoggoneVGC]

Everyone is different. My personal residences, my history is sold my first after 2 years, sold the the next after 9 months, sold the next after 16 years, the next after 3 years, the next after 2 years, now in my current 1 year and I don't see this as a forever home. Each one of my sales was for a very different reason. It's very possible I am more committed to my DVC home resorts than my actual home currently.

My house burned down last year, so I really view my DVC home resorts at VDH and VGC as home, and have no plans to sell.

 

[VGCgroupie]

My house burned down last year, so I really view my DVC home resorts at VDH and VGC as home, and have no plans to sell.

Oh no I’m so sorry that happened.

 

[Sandisw]

My house burned down last year, so I really view my DVC home resorts at VDH and VGC as home, and have no plans to sell.

Just sending thoughts about having to go through that.

 

[eticketplease]

Yes, a big part of it is the Sorcerer's Pass. It will save us $2k per year on our annual passes.

Never buy for the benefits as they can go away at any time.

We never let go of our passes and weren't affect by Disney stopping AP Sales (although our renewal dates were screwed up when they added months to them).
If you were a person who tries to double dip and squeeze two years worth of points in one year to use the AP then let the AP go and then sign up again you soon found out that this wasn't possible as AP's were no longer for sale.

Not to say this isn't going to happen again but it could.

If you are going to buy direct do so for the sole reason of being able to book at all resorts but also remember even that is not guaranteed as there might not be availability at 7 months at the resort you are trying to stay at.

 

[eticketplease]

It's kind of like a SAP tax.

very good analogy

That's why if you are buying a property for SAP you certainly need to buy many more points (More Points=More Dues maybe these really are SAD ) than if you were just an owner of said resort you are seeking.
Owning where you want to stay also eliminates stress being able to book what you want between 7-11 months.

 

[melissa70]

Never buy for the benefits as they can go away at any time.

We never let go of our passes and weren't affect by Disney stopping AP Sales (although our renewal dates were screwed up when they added months to them).
If you were a person who tries to double dip and squeeze two years worth of points in one year to use the AP then let the AP go and then sign up again you soon found out that this wasn't possible as AP's were no longer for sale.

Not to say this isn't going to happen again but it could.

If you are going to buy direct do so for the sole reason of being able to book at all resorts but also remember even that is not guaranteed as there might not be availability at 7 months at the resort you are trying to stay at.

So why would anyone buy direct? If not for perks or to stay at the restricted resorts, then why not just buy resale always?