Spring Direct Incentives 2/9-4/27

[Dafoo17]

You did two tours at Aulani and they didn't tell you about the promotion of buying while on site there? Wow, that's a more laid-back approach I guess, even for Aulani.

Naw, WDW. Thought the comment said all active resorts

 

[VGCgroupie]

Naw, WDW. Thought the comment said all active resorts

Oh the tour has to be at Aulani but you can apply the extra $1000 Aulani incentive towards any active resorts.

 

[Dafoo17]

Oh the tour has to be at Aulani but you can apply the extra $1000 Aulani incentive towards any active resorts.

Ohh! I misunderstood, thanks!

 

[Girlstar30]

Damn, I did two in person tours in January and this never came up.

I almost even asked as a joke if there were any in person incentives! But thought it was too dad-jokey. "No, Dafoo, don't say that"

Does anyone get a thank you letter with mickey and minnie driving in the mail everytime they look at a guide. I appreciate the gesture, but I have like 10 of them at home

 

[intamin]

Off topic but did they stop giving out that gold water bottle with the towel and certificate and etc. for add ons? I presume they decided it wasn't worth like 10 trees with all that packaging?

 

[VGCgroupie]

Does anyone get a thank you letter with mickey and minnie driving in the mail everytime they look at a guide. I appreciate the gesture, but I have like 10 of them at home

Nope. Don’t even have one

 

[VGCgroupie]

Off topic but did they stop giving out that gold water bottle with the towel and certificate and etc. for add ons? I presume they decided it wasn't worth like 10 trees with all that packaging?

I thought they came with all purchases of 150 or more

 

[Girlstar30]

Off topic but did they stop giving out that gold water bottle with the towel and certificate and etc. for add ons? I presume they decided it wasn't worth like 10 trees with all that packaging?

I'll let you know in a couple months (hopefully)

 

[tx911]

little rascals reference, couple pages back.

I didn’t know that was a legitimate question mark! I thought @eticketplease was joking.

 

[Flash_Sloth]

Off topic but did they stop giving out that gold water bottle with the towel and certificate and etc. for add ons? I presume they decided it wasn't worth like 10 trees with all that packaging?

When I added-on during the VGF fire sale a couple of years ago, I got them. I'll close on my new VDH contract in a few weeks, and if they send one, I'll let you know.

 

[BuzzLightyr]

I've got a case of add-on itis and tempted to get my blue card.

I see at a lot of value in SSR as direct SAP. I don't mind staying at SSR. I like reasonably priced 1 or 2 bedrooms (not studios). I would like to try CFW once. I'd like to stay at the new Lakeshore product once we know more. I'm East Coast based and would primarily travel to WDW. I own BWV resale and won't use those points anywhere else - and have gotten good value with standard/resort view bookings.

I've read through all 40+ pages so far. I'd argue that many are not accounting for the time value of money and arrive at their assumptions of you can just buy one of the other direct properties for the same price.

Here is how I would look at things differently:

• SSR comparison needs to be done at 200 points, there is a huge value of stretching that you don't have at RIV/PVB/VDH. If you could afford 150 PVB at $29,750 after MB you can afford 200 SSR at $30,000
• I'd take the $20/point Magic Beginnings. This is an advantage to SSR as you pay less upfront and get the same back
• Expiry years - I'd give $1/year upfront benefit for each additional year longer than SSR. Each $1 of value in 2054 (difference between point rental rate and dues) is only worth 19c today at a 6% discount rate (1/(1.06^28). By 2074 each dollar of benefit is worth 6 cents in 2026. This $1 per year gives roughly a $10 value/year in the difference in point value and dues
• Dues - using an annuity formula, i'd value each $1 of additional dues per year to be worth $14 today.

Here are my results:

Option	Cost $ (w/ MB and all incentives)	Cost / Pt	Expiry	$/Point Adj for Expiry ($1/year)	Dues	$/Point Adj for Dues (x14)	Adjusted Price with Dues
SSR-150	24,000	160	2054	0	9.19	0	160
SSR-200	30,000	150	2054	0	9.19	0	150
RIV-150	28,100	187	2070	-16	9.46	+4	175
RIV-200	37,300	187	2070	-16	9.46	+4	174
PVB-150	29,750	198	2066	-12	8.33	-12	174
PVB-200	39,700	199	2066	-12	8.33	-12	174
VDH-150	27,500	183	2074	-20	10.54	+19	182
VDH-200	36,900	185	2074	-20	10.54	+19	183
AUL-150	27,050	180	2062	-8	10.96	+25	197

Takeaways

• SSR 200 is a great value and about 16% cheaper per point than RIV/PVB
• RIV/PVB are priced equally once you adjust for dues
• VDH and AUL seemed like a slight increase in buy-in for 150/blue card but the higher dues actually make them the most expensive on the list if you don't actually plan to go stay in California or Hawaii.

 

[mkatsy]

On the years of value question, you'll often hear people say, well, I'm not going to be around then anyways, so what do I care how many years are left on the contract - 2054 is plenty of years left! Superficially, I can see how that would

It took me a while to overcome that “I won’t be here, what does it matter” mind set. When you’re older DVC “death math” is a real thing. It hit home when I started to make arrangements for including my DVC in estate plans. I may not be here, but my family will still be able to enjoy the contracts, or cash out if they want to. I want the best possible position for them, even if that’s just renting the points until they make a decision.

 

[melissa70]

I've got a case of add-on itis and tempted to get my blue card.

I see at a lot of value in SSR as direct SAP. I don't mind staying at SSR. I like reasonably priced 1 or 2 bedrooms (not studios). I would like to try CFW once. I'd like to stay at the new Lakeshore product once we know more. I'm East Coast based and would primarily travel to WDW. I own BWV resale and won't use those points anywhere else - and have gotten good value with standard/resort view bookings.

I've read through all 40+ pages so far. I'd argue that many are not accounting for the time value of money and arrive at their assumptions of you can just buy one of the other direct properties for the same price.

Here is how I would look at things differently:

• SSR comparison needs to be done at 200 points, there is a huge value of stretching that you don't have at RIV/PVB/VDH. If you could afford 150 PVB at $29,750 after MB you can afford 200 SSR at $30,000
• I'd take the $20/point Magic Beginnings. This is an advantage to SSR as you pay less upfront and get the same back
• Expiry years - I'd give $1/year upfront benefit for each additional year longer than SSR. Each $1 of value in 2054 (difference between point rental rate and dues) is only worth 19c today at a 6% discount rate (1/(1.06^28). By 2074 each dollar of benefit is worth 6 cents in 2026. This $1 per year gives roughly a $10 value/year in the difference in point value and dues
• Dues - using an annuity formula, i'd value each $1 of additional dues per year to be worth $14 today.

Here are my results:

Option	Cost $ (w/ MB and all incentives)	Cost / Pt	Expiry	$/Point Adj for Expiry ($1/year)	Dues	$/Point Adj for Dues (x14)	Adjusted Price with Dues
SSR-150	24,000	160	2054	0	9.19	0	160
SSR-200	30,000	150	2054	0	9.19	0	150
RIV-150	28,100	187	2070	-16	9.46	+4	175
RIV-200	37,300	187	2070	-16	9.46	+4	174
PVB-150	29,750	198	2066	-12	8.33	-12	174
PVB-200	39,700	199	2066	-12	8.33	-12	174
VDH-150	27,500	183	2074	-20	10.54	+19	182
VDH-200	36,900	185	2074	-20	10.54	+19	183
AUL-150	27,050	180	2062	-8	10.96	+25	197

Takeaways

• SSR 200 is a great value and about 16% cheaper per point than RIV/PVB
• RIV/PVB are priced equally once you adjust for dues
• VDH and AUL seemed like a slight increase in buy-in for 150/blue card but the higher dues actually make them the most expensive on the list if you don't actually plan to go stay in California or Hawaii.

This is a great analysis! Do you plan on buying the direct SSR points?

 

[DL1WDW2]

Does anyone get a thank you letter with mickey and minnie driving in the mail everytime they look at a guide. I appreciate the gesture, but I have like 10 of them at home

Could you post a picture ?
Mickey & Minnie driving in a mail post delivery van ?
I would love it if it was a postcard you received .
Did you actually get a letter in the mail ?

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

I thought they came with all purchases of 150 or more

Last few directs I bought have been small, under 100, and each earned me a pricey water bottle as recently as this past fall. We've got one more payment in March on this 150 pt ccv and I'll see if we get another after it closes.

 

[intamin]

I've got a case of add-on itis and tempted to get my blue card.

I see at a lot of value in SSR as direct SAP. I don't mind staying at SSR. I like reasonably priced 1 or 2 bedrooms (not studios). I would like to try CFW once. I'd like to stay at the new Lakeshore product once we know more. I'm East Coast based and would primarily travel to WDW. I own BWV resale and won't use those points anywhere else - and have gotten good value with standard/resort view bookings.

I've read through all 40+ pages so far. I'd argue that many are not accounting for the time value of money and arrive at their assumptions of you can just buy one of the other direct properties for the same price.

Here is how I would look at things differently:

• SSR comparison needs to be done at 200 points, there is a huge value of stretching that you don't have at RIV/PVB/VDH. If you could afford 150 PVB at $29,750 after MB you can afford 200 SSR at $30,000
• I'd take the $20/point Magic Beginnings. This is an advantage to SSR as you pay less upfront and get the same back
• Expiry years - I'd give $1/year upfront benefit for each additional year longer than SSR. Each $1 of value in 2054 (difference between point rental rate and dues) is only worth 19c today at a 6% discount rate (1/(1.06^28). By 2074 each dollar of benefit is worth 6 cents in 2026. This $1 per year gives roughly a $10 value/year in the difference in point value and dues
• Dues - using an annuity formula, i'd value each $1 of additional dues per year to be worth $14 today.

Here are my results:

Option	Cost $ (w/ MB and all incentives)	Cost / Pt	Expiry	$/Point Adj for Expiry ($1/year)	Dues	$/Point Adj for Dues (x14)	Adjusted Price with Dues
SSR-150	24,000	160	2054	0	9.19	0	160
SSR-200	30,000	150	2054	0	9.19	0	150
RIV-150	28,100	187	2070	-16	9.46	+4	175
RIV-200	37,300	187	2070	-16	9.46	+4	174
PVB-150	29,750	198	2066	-12	8.33	-12	174
PVB-200	39,700	199	2066	-12	8.33	-12	174
VDH-150	27,500	183	2074	-20	10.54	+19	182
VDH-200	36,900	185	2074	-20	10.54	+19	183
AUL-150	27,050	180	2062	-8	10.96	+25	197

Takeaways

• SSR 200 is a great value and about 16% cheaper per point than RIV/PVB
• RIV/PVB are priced equally once you adjust for dues
• VDH and AUL seemed like a slight increase in buy-in for 150/blue card but the higher dues actually make them the most expensive on the list if you don't actually plan to go stay in California or Hawaii.

I think it depends on the makeup of your membership if it's worth it or not. I think the majority of us are already DVC-Y/hybrid members. I don't think we're ignoring the opportunity cost of buying PVB over SSR. There hasn't been a question about which is the better value. But just like your BWV points will get you into BW during food and wine, PVB will get you into a monorail resort during the holidays. Again personally, I'll take the 150 PVB over 200 SSR but to each their own.

 

[airjay75]

Expiry years - I'd give $1/year upfront benefit for each additional year longer than SSR. Each $1 of value in 2054 (difference between point rental rate and dues) is only worth 19c today at a 6% discount rate (1/(1.06^28). By 2074 each dollar of benefit is worth 6 cents in 2026. This $1 per year gives roughly a $10 value/year in the difference in point value and dues

I follow the discount formula, but I'm not following only $1 of value per year for each point in 2054. If we assume the spread between rental rates and dues remains the same (which is a non-trivial assumption), wouldn't it be closer to $10-$15 per point per year? And, I'm also not sure that is the right determination of value. I'd probably argue that something closer to the difference between rack rates and dues is a closer determination of value because ownership gives you much more flexibility than renting points, in which case, you're probably looking at anywhere between $20-$40 in value for each point per year. If you want to get really precise, you'd need to discount each year's worth of remaining value back to 2026, not just the estimated value per year in 2054. My quick math on RIV, using the conservative assumption of $15/point value in 2054, brings RIV down to $139/point, which, IMO, pretty much blows SSR out of the water. (I probably wouldn't adjust for differences in dues between RIV and SSR given RIV's historically low increases in dues, but others might - I might adjust for dues differences in RIV/SSR vs. PVB).

Of course, the other big assumption one has to make if they're going to use time value of money is that you'd take the difference in cost between SSR and RIV/PVB and invest it. If you would, then time value of money matters a great deal. If you wouldn't and you'd otherwise spend the money, then it doesn't make much difference.

 

[eticketplease]

It's in his family and I would never ask them for it since my aunt is still in the family but also I really was just grateful for the stay. Given where his health was I think he was just trying to burn the points. I often wonder what trajectory my life would've taken if he hadnt gifted us that stay. Would we have fallen in love with WDW as much as we did staying in the little mermaid rooms at Art of Animation (probably not LOL that walk to the skyliner is LONG), would we have looked into DVC.. would we have moved here, would we have gotten married here?. Unfortunately he passed away about a year ago now but I'm grateful like I said for what he started for us.

He also managed to do it properly at the end of his life, he booked a grand villa at VDH and had dinner at 21 Royal at Disneyland on his last birthday. I'm glad he's in a better place now though.

Sorry to hear of the passing but he certainly did Disney right and shared it with family and helped to ignite passion for Disney towards others. Very touching story thank you for sharing.

 

[eticketplease]

I didn’t know that was a legitimate question mark! I thought @eticketplease was joking.

No I was totally clueless as I had missed the little rascals comment

 

[MonorailCoral]

I've got a case of add-on itis and tempted to get my blue card.

I see at a lot of value in SSR as direct SAP. I don't mind staying at SSR. I like reasonably priced 1 or 2 bedrooms (not studios). I would like to try CFW once. I'd like to stay at the new Lakeshore product once we know more. I'm East Coast based and would primarily travel to WDW. I own BWV resale and won't use those points anywhere else - and have gotten good value with standard/resort view bookings.

I've read through all 40+ pages so far. I'd argue that many are not accounting for the time value of money and arrive at their assumptions of you can just buy one of the other direct properties for the same price.

Here is how I would look at things differently:

• SSR comparison needs to be done at 200 points, there is a huge value of stretching that you don't have at RIV/PVB/VDH. If you could afford 150 PVB at $29,750 after MB you can afford 200 SSR at $30,000
• I'd take the $20/point Magic Beginnings. This is an advantage to SSR as you pay less upfront and get the same back
• Expiry years - I'd give $1/year upfront benefit for each additional year longer than SSR. Each $1 of value in 2054 (difference between point rental rate and dues) is only worth 19c today at a 6% discount rate (1/(1.06^28). By 2074 each dollar of benefit is worth 6 cents in 2026. This $1 per year gives roughly a $10 value/year in the difference in point value and dues
• Dues - using an annuity formula, i'd value each $1 of additional dues per year to be worth $14 today.

Here are my results:

Option	Cost $ (w/ MB and all incentives)	Cost / Pt	Expiry	$/Point Adj for Expiry ($1/year)	Dues	$/Point Adj for Dues (x14)	Adjusted Price with Dues
SSR-150	24,000	160	2054	0	9.19	0	160
SSR-200	30,000	150	2054	0	9.19	0	150
RIV-150	28,100	187	2070	-16	9.46	+4	175
RIV-200	37,300	187	2070	-16	9.46	+4	174
PVB-150	29,750	198	2066	-12	8.33	-12	174
PVB-200	39,700	199	2066	-12	8.33	-12	174
VDH-150	27,500	183	2074	-20	10.54	+19	182
VDH-200	36,900	185	2074	-20	10.54	+19	183
AUL-150	27,050	180	2062	-8	10.96	+25	197

Takeaways

• SSR 200 is a great value and about 16% cheaper per point than RIV/PVB
• RIV/PVB are priced equally once you adjust for dues
• VDH and AUL seemed like a slight increase in buy-in for 150/blue card but the higher dues actually make them the most expensive on the list if you don't actually plan to go stay in California or Hawaii.

Good post, well thought out. Ill just add some thoughts:

The baked in assumption here is that you can use your SSR points at each of these resorts as SAPs for the life of the contract.

The biggest thing that I think is missing is home resort priority, now and in the future. Tough to do an analysis here because it will depend on what type of room your family needs/how you vacation. For VDH, at least currently, you basically need home resort priority to book a room that sleeps 5, in addition to high rack rates in California compared to Florida. There is a good deal of value in that if you want to stay there.

For Florida, the way I look at it is at least until 2042, SAPs will exist as they exist now. Generally, that means no issues in finding a resort other than SSR to use points. Some value should be added for having 11 months at your home resort, if that is where you want to stay. A lot more should be added if you stay in December for example. How much that value is will depend on your needs and when you stay.

Using your math above, there is a 22 point delta between VDH and SSR. At 150 points, a VDH buyer would pay $3,300 more 22x150), or $68.75 a year when divided over the length of a VDH contract. ($3,300/48). Personally, $68.75 a year for home resort priority, especially at VDH, was easy.