Spring Direct Incentives 2/9-4/27

[ClaraOswald]

I'm not sure how much expansion there will be with DVC in California. There will be some. But presently, Disney can sell all the rooms on the cash side out most weekends, which I believe is more profitable than DVC. In Florida, where there's near endless land, it's more beneficial to have guests locked into a DVC option. Add in this: Disneyland is not a destination resort. The vast majority of people drive in and home the same day. Those that stay, probably two days max. Hence, the slow sales at VDH.

Me, who travels from Nebraska and stays for a week.

I think people will just buy contracts to stay at their favorite restricted resorts.

I will.

That's basically what I've already done with all 3 resorts I've purchased. No real SAPs for me.

 

[Genie+]

I'm also not convinced that restricted resorts will face the availability problems that so many predict. But, if that problem does start to materialize, there are many ways Disney can get creative to help fix it. They have a vested interest in selling direct points. And direct points aren't going to have much appeal if the ability to use them at non-home resorts is only a theoretical possibility, but next to impossible in practice.

Yeah but what if they start selling the solution? Wash your points!

My best guess is they are going to make the 2042 transition easier for direct and trust owners, and let newer resale owners know how it can be easier for them as well if they cough up some $$$ to fully qualify their points.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Are you saying you'd rather stay at a Value just because its cheaper if you're forced to use the bus?

Basically if I had choose pay hefty DVC premiums at SSR or stay value Id stay value. I might bump to moderate for the Skyliner. AOA. Pop, is that value? I liked POP and the Skyliner is right there for access to 2 parks.

 

[airjay75]

Yeah but what if they start selling the solution? Wash your points!

Exactly my point! One of many solutions they might employ to improve 7-month availability if it becomes a significant enough issue. One could see a full points wash or even a fee for each resale point you use at a resort for which you aren’t eligible.

 

[Genie+]

Exactly my point! One of many solutions they might employ to improve 7-month availability if it becomes a significant enough issue. One could see a full points wash or even a fee for each resale point you use at a resort for which you aren’t eligible.

Kind of funny too. DVC gets to make money on something that would ease their own headache. Now that is next level business planning

 

[Carouselofplanning]

I would actually bet the opposite, that RIV average resale price will never start getting below avg SSR/OKW levels. I think RIV resale will actually increase once RIV sells out and DVC become more likely to ROFR it and the direct sold out price increases.

Resale restrictions are the new normal and will matter less and less as time goes on. In 5 or 10 years when more resorts have opened and all are restricted, the older resorts are closer to expiration, and (IMO) booking problems get even tighter, some of the less desirable resorts like OKW and SSR may have trouble trading at 7 months anyway. In a way they could end up restricting themselves lol.

And a lot of people would rather be "stuck" at RIV or one of the the newer restricted resorts than SSR or OKW

Real talk: How many new resorts you think you’ll see within 10 years?

 

[Tatebeck]

Real talk: How many new resorts you think you’ll see within 10 years?

Counting Lakeshore? And other expansions?
I think probably Lakeshore and around 3 more new builds/conversions/expansions, give or take 1 (so 2-4 more is what I would bet on).
1-2 WDW possibly 3 if they choose expansions, maybe 1 offsite but looks doubtful, maybe 1 DL towards the end of the 10 years/ DL Forward project

They are putting a lot of money into and expanding the parks and seem to be leaning on DVC pretty heavily lately

 

[Flash_Sloth]

In our contract paperwork, there was an entire page about the artwork. So I'd say they are pretty serious about who is getting it.

I received the final-signed-by-all-parties DocuSign paperwork today, and they didn't sneak in a page about the artwork. We had the paperwork drawn up on the last day of the previous round of incentives, and signed on the first day of new incentives. We're unlikely to get any pixie dust with the artwork, but I am pretty happy with the VDH deal that we got.

Normal incentive, DL70th incentive, D23 incentive, incentive for buying while on vacation in Aulani, Magical Beginnings, waiving title insurance, and using the Chase Disney Visa that gets us 2% back...
for 200 points, it is just under $180/pt, but we will also have to pay almost a full year of annual dues that will probably be around $2k or $10/pt.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I received the final-signed-by-all-parties DocuSign paperwork today, and they didn't sneak in a page about the artwork. We had the paperwork drawn up on the last day of the previous round of incentives, and signed on the first day of new incentives. We're unlikely to get any pixie dust with the artwork, but I am pretty happy with the VDH deal that we got.

Normal incentive, DL70th incentive, D23 incentive, incentive for buying while on vacation in Aulani, Magical Beginnings, waiving title insurance, and using the Chase Disney Visa that gets us 2% back...
for 200 points, it is just under $180/pt, but we will also have to pay almost a full year of annual dues that will probably be around $2k or $10/pt.

Yeah...since you went with the last round of incentives, you don't qualify for the artwork. At least that was my understanding of it. It's for the first 200 people who use the new Spring incentives at VDH.

 

[Carouselofplanning]

DVD could decide to immediately put them back into the system by coming up creative ways with the trust model!!

But they’d have to sell those points all over again. That takes time. It’s fun to think about this stuff but it’s so true the decision makers on this issue aren’t even applying to the college program yet lol. Will be interesting to see what happens. If they hold the line on never extending a property again, they will lose a breathtaking amount of customers all at once.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Real talk: How many new resorts you think you’ll see within 10 years?

2.5

 

[Carouselofplanning]

Counting Lakeshore? And other expansions?
I think probably Lakeshore and around 3 more new builds/conversions/expansions, give or take 1 (so 2-4 more is what I would bet on).
1-2 WDW possibly 3 if they choose expansions, maybe 1 offsite but looks doubtful, maybe 1 DL towards the end of the 10 years/ DL Forward project

They are putting a lot of money into and expanding the parks and seem to be leaning on DVC pretty heavily lately

Not expansions. New hotels. You talked about new hotels in the next 5-10 years. O14 expansions aren’t being restricted.

 

[mkatsy]

What? You give them a vote? If that was the case our family would only be staying at the resort with the "pool with sand in it" as I would be out voted everytime lol

I also babysit and pay the bar tab …” these aren’t vacations, they are the stories we will tell for decades” … at least I think that’s what the ad said

 

[Tatebeck]

Not expansions. New hotels. You talked about new hotels in the next 5-10 years. O14 expansions aren’t being restricted.

Whoa calm down there bud

I never said whole new hotels/sites. I am talking DVC. DVC has multiple resorts on some sites, like CCV and BRV both being at WL property. And expansions haven't had any restrictions yet because they were either made before the restrictions started or because they were combined into the same condo associations.

And with a lot of the other sites if they expanded now, they wouldn't be able to combine into the same condo associations for any that have less than 40 years left. And all new associations now seem to be restricted so if they do an expansion/conversion to make a new DVC resort in a new association I assume it will indeed be restricted. There are a few of the later expiring ones that they could still add on to in the same association though!

A lot of their builds either convert or build on space from previous (like RIV took over some CBR space). No one but Disney (and probably not even them yet ) knows how many will or won't be built on previously allocated space vs completely new site plans more than a couple years out

 

[VGCgroupie]

Not expansions. New hotels. You talked about new hotels in the next 5-10 years. O14 expansions aren’t being restricted.

Crap. Then I change my answer above to 2 the .5 was an expansion.

 

[Carouselofplanning]

2.5

Lakeshore
Epcot Main Gate

I don’t see another Disneyland hotel. There’s no room and the guest profile is so different there. The land needs to be used for the theme park expansion and parking. They could repurpose Pixar I suppose but they just re-themed it. But if Disneyland hotel sells out and there’s a big DVC demand, it could happen.

I also think the Villains entrance hotel talk is silly. This is the Magic Kingdom. Where dreams come true. The castle is the icon for the whole brand. They aren’t going to have there one and only entrance gate hotel in the bad guys land. It’s not meant to be the focal point of the theme park.

 

[tx911]

Basically if I had choose pay hefty DVC premiums at SSR or stay value Id stay value. I might bump to moderate for the Skyliner. AOA. Pop, is that value? I liked POP and the Skyliner is right there for access to 2 parks.

No personal experience, but I would think the lines for the skyliner would be insane.

 

[Carouselofplanning]

Whoa calm down there bud

I never said whole new hotels/sites. I am talking DVC. DVC has multiple resorts on some sites, like CCV and BRV both being at WL property. And expansions haven't had any restrictions yet because they were either made before the restrictions started or because they were combined into the same condo associations.

And with a lot of the other sites if they expanded now, they wouldn't be able to combine into the same condo associations for any that have less than 40 years left. And all new associations now seem to be restricted so if they do an expansion/conversion to make a new DVC resort in a new association I assume it will indeed be restricted. There are a few of the later expiring ones that they could still add on to in the same association though!

A lot of their builds either convert or build on space from previous (like RIV took over some CBR space). No one but Disney (and probably not even them yet ) knows how many will or won't be built on previously allocated space vs completely new site plans more than a couple years out

I’m calm!! Promise!!! (Sitting here breathing into a paper bag while I type this) lol.

Good point that as time passes, expansions into existing associations are under 40 years.

But as far as bona fide new resorts go, I don’t see more than 2 and we already are seeing 1 of them being built. I guess my point is some people buy direct under this illusion that the Vegas Strip of hotels is being built and they will be left out. In reality for the foreseeable future it’s probably 2 hotels.

 

[eticketplease]

Just a remember that there is no need to make critical statements about other posters.

@AstroBlasters made the reply to my post and I don't view it as critical but I certainly agree about not making critical statements about other posters.

 

[Tatebeck]

I’m calm!! Promise!!! (Sitting here breathing into a paper bag while I type this) lol.

Good point that as time passes, expansions into existing associations are under 40 years.

But as far as bona fide new resorts go, I don’t see more than 2 and we already are seeing 1 of them being built. I guess my point is some people buy direct under this illusion that the Vegas Strip of hotels is being built and they will be left out. In reality for the foreseeable future it’s probably 2 hotels.

For whole new sites, I could see Lakeshore, another Epcot area resort, maybe 1 more offsite spot or the first WDW entrance-included hotel somewhere, and maybe 1 at DL at the end of DL forward like I said earlier.

So I could still see 3 more whole new sites possible, but probably not if they do a bunch of expansions