Just what I thought....Adam is a secret shopper for DVC! JJ
"Bean counter" here as well and I have run numbers similar to yours with similar results. I have a request though...can we block all Disney personnel from reading this thread? If we make it look too good to buy DVC, they'll go up on the price!!!
The important thing to keep in mind when doing any "value" spreadsheets is if you would actually pay the "retail price". For example, if you would not be willing to spend $7,910 cash for a week at BLT then it is not a valid comparison. Much like the DDP, it is a good deal if you would normally eat at all the places that are covered in the plan, but if not then the "value" decreases. If Disney charged $20 for a burger at Peco's and you could buy a coupon for the burger for $15 then it would be a "value" only if you are willing to spend $20 or even $15 on the burger.
I don't know if the example at BLT is for 6 or 7 nights (a week), but let's assume 7 (lower per night cost) that means that it costs $1,130 per night. I would never pay that much a night, but I would also not pay $500 a night to stay there so getting it "half off" is still not a "value" to me.
I don't have a problem with people who do, it is just not for me. Much like people who stay off property think I am crazy for staying at VWL (on points). When I bought into VWL I did not use the rack rate at VWL in my calculations because I would never stay there for that cost. I am willing to pay value and moderate rates so I used them in my calculations. I wouldn't buy a Corvette if I could I could get it for 1/3 off, because I think it is over priced to begin with, but if I was going to buy the corvette anyway then it would be foolish of my to not buy into a system that would allow me to get 1/3 off the cost of the car.
I LOVE this thread since I may buy into DVC in the next year or two and want to ensure it's a savings on vacations over time.
I like the above question a lot but I'd also add that my family (2 adults, 1 child) enjoys staying at moderates and can currently afford every second year for lengthy periods (since we fly from Canada and flights are ridiculous, I wouldn't go for short breaks ever. What would be break even for buying either 100 or 160 points SSR, resale only staying in studio (which is like a moderate) or maybe a 1bdrm in SOME years....maybe you can't even do a spreadsheet for that since it's not consistant throughout...
I'm looking at DVC as an opportunity to spend the same money I would spend staying every second year at a moderate over decades but go more often and through my retirement without worrying about money (either every year or every second year if we bank and get a bigger room to treat 1 or 2 family and friends who wouldn't be able to afford to go to Disney EVER).
Does that scenario still come out to a large savings in the long run? ANY savings would be good, in my book.