Spreadsheet calculation for true cost of each dvc resort?

[mamaofsix]

I remember someone posting on here a spreadsheet they'd designed for calculating the true cost of ownership for each resort. Can't seem to find it now, though - anyone have the link?

I'm wondering about popping in the new projected 2021 dues to see how that affects the resort standings for affordability.

Thanks!

 

[davidl81]

A lot of those calculations can be flawed depending on how much value you put into the value of the contracts 20+ years out. Not that they are incorrect, but if you say that points in 2050 are the same as points in 2022 then the longer term resorts will always have better values. Poly is starting to become the best “value” to an extent as a combination of term, dues, and buy in cost. And actually the best value from what I can tell is Aulani with sub dues. Those have 2062 expiration dates with dues a little over $6 and buy in cost around $100ish. But they are rare contracts.

 

[havoc315]

I'd argue that AKL is the best value at resale price + length of contract. Aulani is great if you're a frequent Hawaii traveler... but that's not generally Disney's target audience.

As to the spreadsheets... there are many of them. But beware, they all require a lot of speculation, especially the more you look into the future. They make assumptions such as the inflation rate for Disney hotels (unknown), assumption about increases in dues. And then there is the heavy elements of the prevent value of money, and your subjective future valuations. (Yes, you can get a $4000 Disney vacation in 2038! But maybe you won't have any interest in Disney vacations in 2038).

Anyway.. here is a decedent spreadsheet calculator:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...lculator.xls&usg=AOvVaw1K9b1qeIqvOHuu5nTVpfO6

 

[RoseGold]

This math isn't perfect for a few reasons, but I think it's a good ballpark, especially if you follow this math for the last few years.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2020/
I think anything in the top several is going to be more or less the same for now. More subtle math depends on what your exit strategy is and whether you want to pony up the cash for the resorts with longer contracts.

The dues didn't change this much at all, except I bet it knocked OKW down a notch. Pricing was weird over the summer, so who knows. But this chart has mostly stayed the same over several years.

 

[havoc315]

This math isn't perfect for a few reasons, but I think it's a good ballpark, especially if you follow this math for the last few years.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2020/
I think anything in the top several is going to be more or less the same for now. More subtle math depends on what your exit strategy is and whether you want to pony up the cash for the resorts with longer contracts.

The dues didn't change this much at all, except I bet it knocked OKW down a notch. Pricing was weird over the summer, so who knows. But this chart has mostly stayed the same over several years.

The problem with that article and analysis -- they treat dues paid in the future as equivalent to the upfront cost.

Paying $100 now, and then $10 per year for the next 10 years, may add up to $200. But it's not the equivalent of paying $200 now. Particularly with maintenance, you need to actually correlate to the point chart. OKW might appear to have very high annual dues -- over $8.30 for 2021, and Poly only has dues of $7.05..
So that appears to make Poly a better value... but... If your goal is 1 week in a studio for summer (for example)... At OKW you would only need 106 points for your annual trip. At Poly, you would need 167 points for that annual trip. So you'll pay more in annual dues with 167 Poly points than you'll pay with 106 OKW points.
Of course, if you use your Poly points to stay at OKW, then you are getting better value than someone who uses OKW points to stay at Poly.

Basically.. if you're never staying at your home resort, always bouncing around at the 7 month mark, then having the lowest possible maintenance fees and lowest contract price is important. But if you are primarily staying in your home resort, then the point chart becomes part of the value measurement. And this has both subjective and objective measurements. Some would say that the OKW has a better point chart, because rooms are cheaper. But cheaper rooms aren't necessarily a good thing.

Long winded way of saying that there is no clear cut way to truly calculate the "value" of these options.

 

[RoseGold]

Like I said a ballpark. The opportunity cost of the funds/inflation are a whole different level of math.

The points charts are a completely different discussion, and doesn't really matter if you are talking about SAP.

So yea, value depends on your priorities and I would argue more importantly your exit strategy.

 

[Winston Wolf]

I think most people can make the math work for just about anything if they look hard enough to justify it. I agonize over this stuff, but when we made our purchase decision we just did it. Will it pay off? Maybe. But the longer you sit on the fence the less use you’ll get out of your eventual contract and the more it’ll cost you.

 

[havoc315]

Like I said a ballpark. The opportunity cost of the funds/inflation are a whole different level of math.

The points charts are a completely different discussion, and doesn't really matter if you are talking about SAP.

So yea, value depends on your priorities and I would argue more importantly your exit strategy.

Agreed with all that. But that's why there is so much subjectivity. Exit strategy is irrelevant if you're planning on keeping long term, but for other people, it's a critical financial question. And for that matter, exit strategy may quickly lose relevance among the 2042 contracts -- Once there are only 10-15 years left, the values will start to plummet. (I would estimate that the resale value will start dropping by $8-15 per point per year, starting around 2030 for all those 2042 contracts).

But part of the issue is --- Buying DVC has many subjective benefits. In terms of pure math, it's still unlikely to ever be cheaper than simply staying off property, or booking value/mod resorts.
So yes... for example, SRR may be a better "value" than GFV. But SSR simply isn't as nice as GFV. Just as a mod/value hotel room isn't as nice as DVC.
Poly might look great in terms of "value" and it's a spectacular resort... but if you want 1-2 bedrooms, then it doesn't give you the value you need.

Fact is, the long-term $$$ value of all the DVCs are similar enough (apart form contract expiration issues), I just can't imagine making it the primary driver of the decision. In fact, I'd find it totally irrelevant unless you're confidently always booking at the 7-month mark, where home priority doesn't matter.

 

[sethschroeder]

I wouldn't worry about all the resorts.

Pick your top 2-3 that you want to stay at for the next 20-30 years and then see how many points it takes, what the dues are, and the buy in cost.

Buy where you want to stay.

Sure you could save $50-$400 per year but in reality you are sacrificing at that point.

 

[davidl81]

The problem with that article and analysis -- they treat dues paid in the future as equivalent to the upfront cost.

Paying $100 now, and then $10 per year for the next 10 years, may add up to $200. But it's not the equivalent of paying $200 now. Particularly with maintenance, you need to actually correlate to the point chart. OKW might appear to have very high annual dues -- over $8.30 for 2021, and Poly only has dues of $7.05..
So that appears to make Poly a better value... but... If your goal is 1 week in a studio for summer (for example)... At OKW you would only need 106 points for your annual trip. At Poly, you would need 167 points for that annual trip. So you'll pay more in annual dues with 167 Poly points than you'll pay with 106 OKW points.
Of course, if you use your Poly points to stay at OKW, then you are getting better value than someone who uses OKW points to stay at Poly.

Basically.. if you're never staying at your home resort, always bouncing around at the 7 month mark, then having the lowest possible maintenance fees and lowest contract price is important. But if you are primarily staying in your home resort, then the point chart becomes part of the value measurement. And this has both subjective and objective measurements. Some would say that the OKW has a better point chart, because rooms are cheaper. But cheaper rooms aren't necessarily a good thing.

Long winded way of saying that there is no clear cut way to truly calculate the "value" of these options.

Yeah, I should say that I would just look at these points as just SAP. If you start to factor the points chart into each resort the math will get real weird and then I’d just guess that SSR would be the best “value” Since it has a cheaper point chart, cheap buy in, long ish contract, and fairly low dues.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I remember someone posting on here a spreadsheet they'd designed for calculating the true cost of ownership for each resort. Can't seem to find it now, though - anyone have the link?

I'm wondering about popping in the new projected 2021 dues to see how that affects the resort standings for affordability.

Thanks!

Do you mean one that takes the dues and point requirements into consideration? I think one of those was posted not too long ago. I had created one a few years ago but haven't kept it up to date and am behind on a few resorts.

 

[mamaofsix]

Do you mean one that takes the dues and point requirements into consideration? I think one of those was posted not too long ago. I had created one a few years ago but haven't kept it up to date and am behind on a few resorts.

Yes, that's the one I was looking for. Can't seem to find it...

 

[limace]

Look about four threads down.