Speculation for plans for 2042 expirations

[APiratesLifeForMe2]

3 contracts in and considering a 4th (you know the problem). We really want to add on to our BRV contract but don't love the expiration. I don't think Disney is likely to pursue something similar to OKW extensions but I also have a hard time thinking they are just going to let all those 2042 owners walk away without offering some discount or option to re-up their current contracts. I know there are other resorts to purchase at but if you have a favorite, there isn't a substitute. Any speculations? I am trying to play out the options in my head.

 

[kcp13b]

We bought OKW direct last year and were so happy that they automatically extended our contract to 2057, but the earlier expiration date definetly plays into hesitation with buying Boardwalk. I would like to think that they would offer current owners some kind of discounted incentive to buy a new contract near expiration. Legally, could they just convert DVC rooms to regular cash rooms after contracts expire?

 

[Sandisw]

I think they will repurpose the 2042 resort, change the points charts, and sell them as new.

I think any incentive will be for all members, and just those there.

 

[SL6827]

Ya, you know the lower points needed to stay at the BW and the BC is just killing Disney now.

 

[BennyBoyWrench]

We would be making BRV our first DVC contract, but are suitably put off by the shorter contract that we're going to buy into Copper Creek instead. If there's a good rumour about how DVC would act when 2042 comes up then I'd love to revert to our original plan.

 

[dvc at last !]

Happy we have OKW 2057.

 

[GoingSince1990]

We would be making BRV our first DVC contract, but are suitably put off by the shorter contract that we're going to buy into Copper Creek instead. If there's a good rumour about how DVC would act when 2042 comes up then I'd love to revert to our original plan.

Don’t base anything you do on rumours, “good” or otherwise. Everyone should just assume that their points will permanently expire in 2042; anything better is a bonus.

 

[chalee94]

We bought OKW direct last year and were so happy that they automatically extended our contract to 2057, but the earlier expiration date definetly plays into hesitation with buying Boardwalk. I would like to think that they would offer current owners some kind of discounted incentive to buy a new contract near expiration. Legally, could they just convert DVC rooms to regular cash rooms after contracts expire?

Yes, they could simply convert DVC rooms to regular cash rooms (although that defeats some of the benefit of having timeshares that are guaranteed high occupancy).

I think they totally might offer $15 off per point from the $500-ish per pt purchase price after they refurb the resort, update the points chart and move it to DVC II rules. I would not expect any significant discounts, no.

I would only count on your membership expiring in Jan 2042. That is what is in the contract.

This May thread has some additional discussion/speculation in case you didn't see it:

https://disboards.com/threads/2042-expiration.3801259/

 

[APiratesLifeForMe2]

I think they will repurpose the 2042 resort, change the points charts, and sell them as new.

I think any incentive will be for all members, and just those there.

Oh definitely adjust the point charts for some of them! I’m just thinking 4 resorts all expire in 2042 so I wonder if that even makes sense to take them all off book until renovated. While those members (Potentially) just walk away.

Ya, you know the lower points needed to stay at the BW and the BC is just killing Disney now.

Oh yes they can’t wait to change those point charts!

We would be making BRV our first DVC contract, but are suitably put off by the shorter contract that we're going to buy into Copper Creek instead. If there's a good rumour about how DVC would act when 2042 comes up then I'd love to revert to our original plan.

I can sympathize with the thought process. We don’t care for copper creek as much or we might must go with that.

 

[jarestel]

In 2042 when direct prices are probably north of $300/point and dues are $15+/point, I suspect there won't be as much interest in maintaining ownership at any of the 2042 resorts. Though I'm pretty sure there will certainly be much wailing and gnashing of teeth over how Disney is refusing to reward their loyal DVC members with cheap extension contracts.

 

[bookwormde]

The big question is if it is in anyway practical way to let the resorts "expire" and reform them as new offerings

All my analysis indicates that this would be very difficult, since selling that many "new" points would take at least 7 years. Renting that many additional cash deluxe rooms consistently without cannibalizing other resorts' bookings also very unlikely. So far beginning to offer extensions as the resorts get towards 10 years left is the only financially efficient path that I see. It would be practical for DVC to let 1 or 2 expire to be able to make point and other major changes to POS which are not otherwise allowed for ongoing timeshares. The caveat is that this option would not work if there are new DVC resorts cumming on line.

I think when resale priced drop to say 30 to 40% of direct will likely be the trigger for extensions to begin. They may start with this only being an option for direct sale contracts, but will likely eventually be offered to exiting owners. I also would expect any bargains for extension with them likely to cost over $100.pt if the extension is 20+ years

another consideration is to try to spread out expiration date to fill the 2042 to 2054 "gap" which would take some other scheme such as selling blocks of points as compared to deeded ownership.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

You also have to consider that this is a problem that they don't have to deal with any time soon.

The reality is they cannot extend current contracts; they learned that the hard way with OKW. Once you extend the land lease all contracts are extended whether they sign and pay or not.

So any "extension" would have to be a new contract that starts February 1, 2042.

That allows for a lot of shenanigans.

It is also worth considering that the people likely to make these decisions may not even work for DVC yet. Current leadership won't be in charge 15 years from now.

And decisions won't be made on 2020's travel/economic behaviors. I am not just talking pandemic. But 10-15 years is a lot of time for a lot to happen relative to global issues, including further pandemics, climate issues, social issues, international relations, etc. etc.

 

[chalee94]

All my analysis indicates that this would be very difficult, since selling that many "new" points would take at least 7 years.

At least we agree that the DVC II versions of BCV and BWV will still sell out before Aulani.

 

[TisBit]

I also doubt they will look to extend the contracts. I think it will likely be where they can "rethink" those resorts and build a different set of rooms to sell as "new" contracts. That would allow them to reconfigure the resorts if they choose, base don the current DVC model. This will accomplish two things, one realign point charts to the current "normal" night per point and allow them to sell at a much higher rate to new owners who will be locked in for the 50 year expiration. Most likely, they will offer special incentives to current owners of those resorts who can rebuy with some great incentive not open to other DVC owners or the public.

 

[AdamsMum]

Ya, you know the lower points needed to stay at the BW and the BC is just killing Disney now.

I totally agree with you. They didn't know what they had when these resorts opened. I have to think someone up there is trying to figure out how to get them back sooner.

 

[drusba]

We would be making BRV our first DVC contract, but are suitably put off by the shorter contract that we're going to buy into Copper Creek instead. If there's a good rumour about how DVC would act when 2042 comes up then I'd love to revert to our original plan.

BRV has the short contract that likely will not be renewed in 2042. DVD will instead likely redo the resort by raising the total number of points, and thus raising points needed per night, and sell new contracts). Nevertheless, you have a different, and current, more serious issue to be aware of with CCV. The addition of all those cabins with an outrageous number of points needed per night allowed DVD to greatly oversell the number of points that could be purchased by those who could afford only smaller units, particularly studios. The result is that the studios (and 2BR lock-offs), now have a serious 11-month issue in that, at many times of the year, partilcualry during the fall, and intermittently the rest of the year, you cannot even get a studio at 11-months out even if you are online to reserve at 8 a.m. exactly 11-months out, when reservations open. The winners are simply those whose computers communicate and lock-in a nanosecond quicker than others with Disney's computer.

 

[chicagoshannon]

I would bet they'll double all the points per room (BWV studio would then be 20 per night in cheapest season). They'd probably just resell then with just the current type of discount they give when buying 200 + points.

From my experience most other timeshare properties have no expiration. So you don't buy in for 50 years you buy in forever. I wonder if Disney would consider doing this after the first resorts expire.

 

[SL6827]

I totally agree with you. They didn't know what they had when these resorts opened. I have to think someone up there is trying to figure out how to get them back sooner.

How could they do that?

 

[icc2515]

2042 is going to be win fall for Disney. I cannot imagine that they are not salivating over all the money they are going to rake in. My predictions are:

Hilton Head and Vero Beach sold outright.

OKW all the 2057 extensions will be consolidated to one area around the main house and the rest bulldozed to the ground in preparation of a new DVC tower or maybe expansion of Disney Springs.

Beach Club and Boardwalk will get lite makeovers nothing structural just gut the rooms and do a makeover new bathrooms kitchens etc. Minimal cost, but maximum profits. These are popular resorts and can make Disney a fortune in DVC sales. The buildings are all well maintained structurally and I am sure that those maintenance schedules will be continued with more attention to detail as time goes on. All on DVC's dime. I mean Disney cannot have the owners have leaky roofs and rotting exteriors in the last 5 years. Probably will do the same for Wilderness Lodge.

This will start great times for Disney as they can start to resell all the resorts one after another with very little investment. I also think that SSR will be bulldozed when it expires. Maybe that will be the Disney Springs expansion.

There is no need to take care of the original owners of these resorts. They will mostly be in their 80's, 90's or passed away. Don't get me wrong, they will give them a discount on the new resorts. And we all know that Disney does not care at all about resale owners.

 

[icc2515]

How could they do that?

They really couldn't. Even if they came up with a "You'd be out of your mind not to take this offer" some would not sign.