Speculate on future BLT incentives

[dr&momto2boys]

Does anyone want to speculate on if and when other incentives will be offered for BLT purchases? Do you think incentives like developer points and free trips will ever be offered? After hearing about the incentives from the last DVC store party, I want stuff like that. We'll probably add on between 250 and 375 points.

I'm also interested to hear how fast you think BLT will sell out. From what I can gather BCV sold out the fastest--how fast was that?

We're relatively new DVC owners (2 years.) We haven't been around long enough or paid enough attention to see a new resort offered and when incentives start to show up. I know it would be all guesses--but what do you guys think?

 

[DisDaydreamer]

I wouldn't expect to see any incentives early on. This has been a pretty hot topic for years.

300 units.... wham-bam thank you sam.... or sammie JMHO

 

[Budshark]

This is my question too.

The current incentives give me no reason to buy before Feb 27, 2009. Why give Disney my money for the next 6 months? The market is volatile - which if anything means the incentives will be improved. Yes, there is a segment of the population who have waited for this for a long time - but not enough to sell it out in 6 months.

The $5 point incentive is only worth $1000 for the points I'm thinking about. And that $20,000 would look better in my bank account than in Disney's.

The emotional part of me says buy and buy now... the logical part of me (which is starting to win) says sit tight... it could be interesting by Jan 1, 2009 in terms of new DVC incentives!

Chris

 

[Josh125]

This is my question too.

The current incentives give me no reason to buy before Feb 27, 2009. Why give Disney my money for the next 6 months? The market is volatile - which if anything means the incentives will be improved. Yes, there is a segment of the population who have waited for this for a long time - but not enough to sell it out in 6 months.

The $5 point incentive is only worth $1000 for the points I'm thinking about. And that $20,000 would look better in my bank account than in Disney's.

The emotional part of me says buy and buy now... the logical part of me (which is starting to win) says sit tight... it could be interesting by Jan 1, 2009 in terms of new DVC incentives!

Chris

Given the current interest rates associated with common CDs, you will be very hard pressed to accrue the 1000 dollars offered by Disney in 6 months even with a 20K investment. Now I do agree if you are wanting to stay liquid in the market, I tend to agree with that.

 

[tjkraz]

Given the current interest rates associated with common CDs, you will be very hard pressed to accrue the 1000 dollars offered by Disney in 6 months even with a 20K investment. Now I do agree if you are wanting to stay liquid in the market, I tend to agree with that.

I don't think the point was to stay liquid or accrue even more in interest. IMHO, there are at least three things I believe to be true:

1. This represents the first DVC price increase in 18 months and they are NOT going to move above $112 per point in the near future.
2. The $5 discount is the worst they have offered in 5 years* and I don't see it getting any worse than that in the near future.
3. When AKV first went on sale, incentives were BETTER 3-4 months after they began selling than they were on Day One.

The moral of that story: Unless you're just dying to get your name on that fountain plaque....sit tight for a few months.

*Actually I take back the comment about it being the worst incentive in 5 years. This may be the worst DVC incentive EVER. AKV had an $8-10 discount from day one plus they let members buy at an old rate just BEFORE a price increase. SSR had a $10 discount initially. And resorts before that (VWL, BCV, etc.) DVC offered a credit of $8-10 for selling back the first year's points. In the case of BLT you still can't use the points for a year but you're only getting a $5 credit.

Don't get me wrong--I'm not trying to be critical of people looking to buy BLT points. I'm just trying to offer a bit of historical perspective. And I still think that in lieu of wanting that "Founding Member" label, most folks would be wise to get 2.5% on their money for a few months and see if the deal improves.

 

[deanna2426]

While I understand your point, it seems many people want their names on that plaque.

My guide told me that they are close to the 1000 members with just the pre-orders they have taken.

 

[tjkraz]

While I understand your point, it seems many people want their names on that plaque.

My guide told me that they are close to the 1000 members with just the pre-orders they have taken.

And that's fine. If people want to be on that plaque, more power to them. And if people are just anxious to buy...heck it's their money.

But I don't think there's anything wrong with waiting--particularly if you're in the market for less than 160 points (the threshold for the plaque.) The buy-in cost is unlikely to get worse and they aren't going to run out of points in days or weeks.

 

[Budshark]

The plaque isn't worth it to me... but nothing against those signing up. Heck - I might too anyways!

But - I would hate to have buyers remorse because 3 months after I bought and got nothing - they increase the incentives. Too late to return, and I couldn't use my points anyways...

I'm just saying... its a pretty safe *risk* to assume at a minimum the $5 incentive isn't going anywhere and its likely to get better. And if I lose on my gamble? I kept my cash for 5 months and only lost $1000...

Chris

 

[XGrumpy1]

I think the incentives will also have to increase at AKV and THV/SSR for them to sell in this economy. When the decision comes for an add on, I will seriously look at them.

All the incentives will be much better Jan 1, 2009 in my opinion.

 

[SplashMtnCrew]

We are hoping for developer points when BLT is open for purchase to the public. We'd need points to cover our Jan trip that we've had booked for over 3 months. Don't want to buy BLT and then have to pay out of pocket for our trip We could care less about a plaque. I think they will offer them b/c of the economy. Nobody would buy a car they couldn't drive for a year, at least we wouldn't want to. I think the economy will force them to offer developer points, even if they never intended to. People who don't plan to go to WDW next year would if they give free developer points w/ BLT, otherwise, folks wouldn't go and may decide not to buy.

 

[smep013]

It is so tempting, isn't it!? We are going to wait it out. We will not need points until next year, so we are going to wait to add-on until after the 1st of the year.

My guide, on Tuesday, said that he expects BLT to sell out in a year.

Stacey

 

[Mississippian]

On Oct. 30, 1929 Variety ran a headline that read, "Wall Street Lays an Egg." You might look to see if there were any real estate "incentives" offered over the next two or three years.

I don't think many people realize just how serious the financial crisis is right now. T-bills have been yielding as little as NOTHING (actually two one-hundreths of one percent). That's because everyone is buying them because they are safe. Meanwhile the overnight lending rate has more than doubled because banks are refusing to lend to each other. The FDIC is running out of money, and several hundred banks could close.

A few months ago a cousin of mine realized that he was being foolish to have his entire retirement fund deposited in one big bank. So he researched a bunch of smaller banks and redistributed the money so that he would be insured by more banks. Of course this puts the big bank in a position of having to pay higher interest to attract deposits, which puts it on shakier ground and makes it more likely to fail. All across America people are doing just what my cousin did, and it's going to have a ripple effect.

Somebody posted on a message board that "My stockbroker told me to invest in food and ammunition." I think that may be good advice. I won't be purchasing any vacation interests in timeshares until the dust settles on the economy.

 

[honeymo78]

We already bought, but here are my thoughts. We need to have points before March so we can book our Oct vacation right away. The only thing I really see them offering is developer points and maybe a gift card. We already have developer points from our AKV purchase we might not be able to use so another set of 300 would be a waste - sure we could rent them but I don't want that hassle. We don't plan on doing an II exchange in the next year and I'm not staying at SSR on developer points when I would have BLT plus AKV points to use - besides, a 4th vacation in 12 months would be too much.

I'm happy to get my name on the fountain and have my contract in hand. We've been planning for this purchase since the rumors of BLT being DVC so there is no incentive for me to wait.

 

[Budshark]

On Oct. 30, 1929 Variety ran a headline that read, "Wall Street Lays an Egg." You might look to see if there were any real estate "incentives" offered over the next two or three years.

I don't think many people realize just how serious the financial crisis is right now. T-bills have been yielding as little as NOTHING (actually two one-hundreths of one percent). That's because everyone is buying them because they are safe. Meanwhile the overnight lending rate has more than doubled because banks are refusing to lend to each other. The FDIC is running out of money, and several hundred banks could close.

A few months ago a cousin of mine realized that he was being foolish to have his entire retirement fund deposited in one big bank. So he researched a bunch of smaller banks and redistributed the money so that he would be insured by more banks. Of course this puts the big bank in a position of having to pay higher interest to attract deposits, which puts it on shakier ground and makes it more likely to fail. All across America people are doing just what my cousin did, and it's going to have a ripple effect.

Somebody posted on a message board that "My stockbroker told me to invest in food and ammunition." I think that may be good advice. I won't be purchasing any vacation interests in timeshares until the dust settles on the economy.

Call me naive... but #1, the current financial crisis will likely dramatically slow consumer spending on high end luxuries. #2, it affects the day to day financials of the upper middle class/luxury class more than the working class. #3, it "corrects" the financial disparity between the US and other countries.

So - at the end of the day what will the US be forced to do? Well, manufacturing overseas and having call centers overseas will be too expensive, will have to send them back home to the US. Big houses? Smaller - more condos and apartments. 45 mile commutes? Too expensive, move back into tighter knit communities closer to my job. Building houses/condos in hurricane and flood zones for the view? Can't get the insurance, not worth it... build a park.

Will it be painful for 3-5 years? Yep. Will it force the government to tighten its belt and people to think smarter? Yep. Will this make it more realistic that my daughter and soon to be born son will have a sustainable America? I hope.

And to keep this on topic - $20,000 isn't going to be the difference between making it and not making it if the economy really really tanks. And - if I can lock up Disney vacations for the next 3-5 years while we are struggling to give my kids a couple weeks of "no worries" - I'm all for it...

Like I said - call me naive!

 

[moredisneyplease]

I dont know.........I'm all for vacations! Actually I prefer "doing" over "having" any day of the week and thats how I live my life. I am not a materialistic person so I invest my money (beyond normal CDs, savings, IRAs, etc) in things like DVC. HOWEVER, I bought my first contract years ago and added AKL earlier this year before all of this financial chaos. Now dont get me wrong, I dont regret it at all but I know there are others out there who bought because the economy was different and are now hurting w/ those extra payments or regretting spending the money they now need elsewhere (thats why lots of SSR resales........probably soon AKL resales).

If I were determined to add more on right now i dont think I'd add on at Blt for a few reasons:

1) not my cup of tea
2) as mentioned earlier, not very good price/incentives
3) I could buy resale and get the same amount of points for the fraction of a price (lets say high 70's at SSR because of the long time frame of ownership, comparable to BLT)

Of course #3 isn't for everyone because they want that BLT location and wouldnt have the 11 month window.

anyways, I personally would wait and see at this point.........

 

[jjgraff30]

Let's bump this thread to see if anyone else has any further insight???

Does anyone think that there will be any additional BLT incentives for add-ons at the DVC Travel Show in Rochester later this month?

Thanks,
Jerry(jjgraff30)

 

[tjkraz]

Does anyone think that there will be any additional BLT incentives for add-ons at the DVC Travel Show in Rochester later this month?

I think that's a given. DVC has historically provided extra incentives to those attending these type of events. But the incentives are ONLY available to those who attend and you may have to agree to buy before you leave the event.

 

[Yen Sid]

The plaque isn't worth it to me... but nothing against those signing up. Heck - I might too anyways!

But - I would hate to have buyers remorse because 3 months after I bought and got nothing - they increase the incentives. Too late to return, and I couldn't use my points anyways...

I'm just saying... its a pretty safe *risk* to assume at a minimum the $5 incentive isn't going anywhere and its likely to get better. And if I lose on my gamble? I kept my cash for 5 months and only lost $1000...

Chris

You got a DVC contract, what do you mean you got nothing? There are enough people in the country still and around the world who want DVC, I think sitting too long is going to be a bad move if you want a contract, DVC is one thing people can use to escape the reality of the world and things like that help while in a rec cession, just my opinion.

 

[JKD Disney]

...being offered to me today. How timely that this thread just got bumped up.

John

PS This is in addition to the $5 Credit.

 

[jjgraff30]

...being offered to me today. How timely that this thread just got bumped up.

John

PS This is in addition to the $5 Credit.

Hello John,

Just so I understand, if you add 100 points, you will receive 100 matching developer points?? What time period are these developer points good for?

The reason I bumped the thread is that I preparing to travel to Rochester for the DVC travel show to receive any additional incentive on a BLT add-on.

Thanks,
Jerry(jjgraff30)