Southwest Cheapest When First Released?

[ancestry]

I feel silly asking this but up until this past week I had never flown Southwest before so I'm not sure how their pricing fluctuation works.

I see that they are opening up dates tomorrow. Are they usually the cheapest when they first come out?

I usually fly Air Tran and Jet Blue but their prices aren't always the best when first released and I have to monitor them until they get to the price I'm willing to pay.

How about with Southwest? Do they fluctuate a lot as well or are they cheapest in the beginning and go up from there depending on how full the flight is?

We are traveling again in December and I'm trying to decide if I should buy tomorrow or not. I still would prefer Jet Blue as they fly from a closer airport but Jet Blue's prices are a little higher than I want to pay right now.

 

[lyonking3]

In my opionion, first out is not always cheapest. Cheapest tends to be based on day of travel. Eg, Fridays and Sunday's will always cost more than a Tuesday or Wednesday. They will have sales too which will be lower than first published fares.

 

[Jestocost]

There are too many factors in play to be able to generalize. We travel during a lot of peak periods—Thanksgiving, Christmas, Spring Break, etc.—and have never seen fares go anywhere but up after they are released. Many people do see fares for other dates go down as various sales come out, however. It also appears to me, for example, that flights down to MCO early in the morning and home late in the evenings—particularly on weekends—tend not to be discounted later.

 

[DisMomAmy]

I have to agree with Jestocost! We usually fly school vacation weeks & our flights home (on Sundays) almost never go down. I always try to book first thing when the flights are released. If we get lucky & they go down, I rebook for a credit, that we have usually been able to use. But I've never had a very substantial credit during those busier weeks.

I plan to book our flights first thing tomorrow no matter what the price is! Crossing my fingers for decent prices.

There are deals to be found, but you have to be pretty flexible about connecting flights, flying mid-week & non-preferred flight times.

 

[mcd2745]

Hard to say. Bottom line, if you're comfortable with the prices you see tomorrow, book it. At least you know you have set a "ceiling" that you won't have to pay more than that number. And if the price does drop, you can rebook for a credit.

When they released fares back in late Feb for our upcoming trip at the end of August, the flight we preferred to return on (the last flight out of MCO on Sat of Labor Day weekend) was $170 pp (we're a family of 4) - much higher than we expected. So, held off. Then we watched it rise steadily to $269 over the next few months. So, worried about the escalating prices - and concerned they'll just keep going up...we ended up booking an early morning flight the next morning (Sunday) for $163 pp knowing we'd then have to crash at an airport hotel Sat night. Well, a couple of weeks ago, the price for the Saturday evening flight dropped to $168 - $2 cheaper then the original price - but about $100 cheaper than its peak price. We switched to that flight for the extra $20, and hope it goes down further to get a credit. Looking back, I should have just booked it at $170.

 

[griergirl2]

We are flying in September out of Chicago and the prices were indeed the cheapest when they first came out. Since then they have fluctuated like crazy (started at $99, then have been up as high as $260, with $170, $144, $210, and $117, and most recently $109 seen as well). We bought the return at the $99 price and are so glad we did. I just bought the departure at $109 and was happy with that.

 

[candy0730]

We are flying in September out of Chicago and the prices were indeed the cheapest when they first came out. Since then they have fluctuated like crazy (started at $99, then have been up as high as $260, with $170, $144, $210, and $117, and most recently $109 seen as well). We bought the return at the $99 price and are so glad we did. I just bought the departure at $109 and was happy with that.

We also fly out of Chicago and found this to be true. In 2009 and 2010 we bought the day fares were released and the price never went lower. I checked at least weekly for 6 months.

I do think it all depends on your route and the day of the week you fly so what may be true for one person may not be for the next.

Tomorrow I will be looking for decent airfare to DC the week of Thanksgiving. Wish me luck!.

 

[Redarrow5150]

I think what also factors in pricing is oil. Oil prices have gone down about 15% and would not be surprised if the airfares come down to reflect current prices and the airlines better hedging for the rest of this year. It's looking like the economy is slowing again and this might have the airlines being more aggressive right now with pricing especially with oil prices declining right now.

 

[mdsd8700]

We traveled to Orlando the week of Thanksgiving last year, leaving on the Tuesday prior and returning the Sunday after. We purchased the tickets as soon as they were released and they were never cheaper than first day. As other posters have said I am sure there are alot of variables in that and there is no way to know for certain. I too am waiting for the schedule to open tomorrow on SW and am hoping for a decent price from Chicago to Orlando. I have a set dollar amount in my head and only hope it comes close!

Good Luck and Pixie Dust to everyone trying to book flights on SW tomorrow!!

 

[scootch]

My Palm Sunday flight actually went down after I booked it on opening day. I did get a credit, but couldn't use it

 

[NotUrsula]

Except for travel dates that include major high-demand travel days (holidays, special sporting events, etc.), almost never.

IME, their best prices for non-peak days/destinations tend to show up around 90 days out from your travel date.

 

[sue Z]

granted I fly mid week to mid week but the day the flights opened up to Nov 1st the two flights i chose were under $100 and I grabbed them and watched them stay at the price for a few weeks but then one day I checked and the price for the trip to MCO was over $100 and the return was still under. But they are both now over $100 so im glad i booked the day of!!

Basically if its $120 or under grab it! other wise keep an eye on it

 

[MOmousefan]

Last November when I planned my WDW trip for the first week in May, Southwest's Wanna Get Away price was $90 each way. I debated the flight for a few days and the rate for the return flight went up to $134. This program is a gamble, but everything went as planned. When I checked in April all budget seats were gone and the round-trip price was $350. My gamble paid off.

 

[DisMomAmy]

I booked our November flight from Manchester to Tampa (visiting family before heading to Disney) yesterday for $197 per ticket. The price is down to $134 today. Luckily we're going back to Disney in April so I have a total of $252 in credits to use for those flights.

However, our return flight from Orlando to Manchester (Sunday of Veteran's Day Weekend) only went up and shows as sold out if I search for four tickets.

 

[ancestry]

Thanks Everyone!

I ended up booking with Jet Blue. The flight down was $40 cheaper per person (with four people that save $160 dollars) and the other was the same as Southwest but with Jet Blue I can get an assigned seat for free and I don't have to travel to another airport like I have to for Southwest.

I experienced my first flight with Southwest last week. They were okay but I still love Jet Blue the best. Seats are more comfortable on Jet Blue. They have TVs. And I don't have the deal with the cattle call in the hopes of trying to get a seat that I want.

Other than the no change fees I can't say that I am impressed with Southwest.

 

[Jestocost]

Thanks Everyone!

I ended up booking with Jet Blue. The flight down was $40 cheaper per person (with four people that save $160 dollars) and the other was the same as Southwest but with Jet Blue I can get an assigned seat for free and I don't have to travel to another airport like I have to for Southwest.

I experienced my first flight with Southwest last week. They were okay but I still love Jet Blue the best. Seats are more comfortable on Jet Blue. They have TVs. And I don't have the deal with the cattle call in the hopes of trying to get a seat that I want.

Other than the no change fees I can't say that I am impressed with Southwest.

Sounds like a good choice for you. Wish I had JB as an option, but for us SWA is the only game in town for non-stop flights to MCO and a lot of other places. Plus, I don't think anyone has bargains available for the Sunday after Thanksgiving!

 

[Mjkre]

My problem is SW flights for Thanksgiving week this year are more than double what we paid last year. For my family that is 1000 more!

 

[bellebookworm9]

In my experience Southwest flights are always cheapest the day they come out. In 2010 we flew down to MCO on an afternoon non-stop flight two Mondays before Memorial Day and we flew back on an afternoon non-stop flight the Friday before Memorial Day. For two people roundtrip, the total was $318.60, including early bird check in.

This year we are flying down at 6am the Friday before Columbus Day and flying back at 7:15pm the day after Columbus Day. I bought the tickets the day they came out and paid $680 total including early bird check in. I just checked again and the same flights are now $908 total not including the check in.

 

[lost*in*cyberspace]

In my opionion, first out is not always cheapest. Cheapest tends to be based on day of travel. Eg, Fridays and Sunday's [sic] will always cost more than a Tuesday or Wednesday.

This just isn't true.

As far as SWA goes, the cheapest seats are offered first.

You might be interested in this article from today's Wall Street Journal explaining why SWA is no longer really a discount airline:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304563104576359371667910458.html

Southwest's average ticket price has jumped 39% in the past five years, while the average ticket price for domestic trips for the industry was up 10%, according to the Department of Transportation.

In many cases where Southwest has a higher price than competitors, it almost always had the lower price available for a time. But after tickets sold, its best offering moved to a more expensive fare bucket, Mr. Ridley said. With Southwest pricing, it almost always pays to shop early. It's rare when Southwest cuts the prices on seats at the last minute.