So many stripped resales…

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Back on the topic of resale listings… not only are a lot of listings stripped, but the total number of listings is significantly down from a month or two ago. I’m assuming this is cyclical/seasonal but there aren’t a lot of “good deals” right now. Do we expect that to turn around in the fall? Winter?

I bid on a couple of BCV contracts earlier this year that were priced about $20 above the max of what I was willing to pay. On one of them we got within $5 of each other and I checked in periodically but they decided to pull the listing (that's what the broker told me), the other is still there AFAIK (I stopped being interested in buying a few weeks ago). I suspect some came off the market when commercial renters stopped believing Disney would actually crack down but others just decided they'd rather not sell at all then get 10% less than the price they feel entitled to... just to say, the number of listings coming down doesn't necessarily mean it's a hot sellers market... only that there aren't currently many owners eager to sell.

It's really hard for me to imagine what's going to push resale prices UP in the next 3-6 months (maybe a surprise interest rate cut that doesn't blow out the long end of the yield curve?), but many possible things that could nudge (or jolt!) resale prices down.

 

[Stank]

Are you, by chance, under 50? Just because the last few dips were short doesn't mean the next ones necessarily will be. There have been plenty of recessions worse than 2001, 2008, and 2020, FYI.

I'm not suggesting that anybody should sell now if they have the financial security to hold their contracts for at least 5 years, I'm definitely not selling at least 75% of my contracts (though I'll probably sell one if Disney starts punishing the 21st reservation when 19 of the original 20 were for my own use).

We aren't talking about panic selling to get ahead of market crash, we're talking about people who know they want to get out, getting out quickly to avoid even a short correction or Disney forcing out big commercial renters, so the market coming back in 6-24 months doesn't really help those people.

I am under 50 and they were, objectively, the worst of any of our lifetimes. April 2020 you had literally the worst job losses in American history, and we will never see anything close to that again. 20.5 million jobs lost in one month. Oil was negative $40. Planes were flying near-empty with tickets at all-time lows. Selling DVC was a mistake then. Buying DVC, generally, in 2021/22 were the absolute worst times in the history of the program, outside of outlier deals or some incredible incentives.

DVC inventory has shrunk over the past month. Abruptly after the tax bill, prices have firmed and inventory is still stubbornly lower despite the commercial renter scare.

Bottom line is macro doesn’t matter for DVC beyond a very, very brief window. Commercial renters selling have stripped contracts bare for the next 12 months. Disney alone is the only factor at play that’ll drive prices down $20 or hold steady. Well, that and 2042 expiration as time decay takes over.

 

[Carouselofplanning]

This is exactly what the email says after you rent from dvc rental store:

"If asked during check-in, please refer to yourselves as a guest of **** ***, not a renter. Please note, Disney will have no record of any transaction regarding the DVC Rental Store. All of Disney's dealings have been done through ****.

Please be aware, check-in will be no different than any other regular resort stay. The reservation is in your name, so you will need to provide your name, a photo ID and a credit card to the Cast Member checking you in. Rarely, if ever, will the member's name come up."

I booked before all this hubbub lol. I think by telling you not to refer to yourself as a renter and that you should say you're a guest, is solidifying that being a renter could spell trouble with DVC, just my opinion or else why tell us that.

Wait - can you not do online check in with a DVC reservation? You have to go to the desk? Never rented before.

 

[Carouselofplanning]

The percent increase really affects the listings. AK and OKW got hit hard last year but Poly / VGF / VGC had minor changes..It showed in listings.

I am starting to look into resale as well. I just go too often to be paying resort rates. I hate to say “rack” because that’s rarely what you pay unless it’s a peak time, but even with a deal DVC via resale is still a much better deal than going via resort reservation.

When do owners find out what the next year’s dues are? Is it literally when the invoice hits the account, or do you get a preview?

It’s interesting to see the inventory getting this low given the number of people that own DVC.

I don’t mind the stripped contracts, I mind when these people think that’s only worth a few dollars below a loaded contract. Sit there and pay some more dues bud, I’m not paying for your last vacation on the contract, you are.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

I am starting to look into resale as well. I just go too often to be paying resort rates. I hate to say “rack” because that’s rarely what you pay unless it’s a peak time, but even with a deal DVC via resale is still a much better deal than going via resort reservation.

When do owners find out what the next year’s dues are? Is it literally when the invoice hits the account, or do you get a preview?

It’s interesting to see the inventory getting this low given the number of people that own DVC.

I don’t mind the stripped contracts, I mind when these people think that’s only worth a few dollars below a loaded contract. Sit there and pay some more dues bud, I’m not paying for your last vacation on the contract, you are.

We usually are advised of the following year’s dues in early December.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Wait - can you not do online check in with a DVC reservation? You have to go to the desk? Never rented before.

Yes you can do online checkin. This post is referring to instances where people go to the front desk when checking in. Some people prefer that.

 

[eticketplease]

We usually are advised of the following year’s dues in early December.

The last few years it has been in November but they are released before the annual meeting in December

 

[Dodgerburt8]

I am under 50 and they were, objectively, the worst of any of our lifetimes. April 2020 you had literally the worst job losses in American history, and we will never see anything close to that again. 20.5 million jobs lost in one month. Oil was negative $40. Planes were flying near-empty with tickets at all-time lows. Selling DVC was a mistake then. Buying DVC, generally, in 2021/22 were the absolute worst times in the history of the program, outside of outlier deals or some incredible incentives.

DVC inventory has shrunk over the past month. Abruptly after the tax bill, prices have firmed and inventory is still stubbornly lower despite the commercial renter scare.

Bottom line is macro doesn’t matter for DVC beyond a very, very brief window. Commercial renters selling have stripped contracts bare for the next 12 months. Disney alone is the only factor at play that’ll drive prices down $20 or hold steady. Well, that and 2042 expiration as time decay takes over.

The low inventory and stubborn prices are eerily similar to the current housing market in many parts of the US. I think macro trends influence DVC resale market but certainly not the only factor.

 

[eticketplease]

I don’t mind the stripped contracts, I mind when these people think that’s only worth a few dollars below a loaded contract. Sit there and pay some more dues bud, I’m not paying for your last vacation on the contract, you are.

Usually the contract will state that you won’t pay dues until you have points.

You will have to pay them but the seller is fronting you the money for them based on the current amount.

 

[Carouselofplanning]

Usually the contract will state that you won’t pay dues until you have points.

You will have to pay them but the seller is fronting you the money for them based on the current amount.

Yes and here’s where some of these sellers think they are slick: I’ll give you a dues credit for 2 years but I’ll inflate my price by 8-10 per point to recoup some or all of that credit. Doesn’t work that way.

 

[airjay75]

Another reason I don't like the stripped contracts, even with dues credits for years with no points, you don't know what those points will be worth in 2 years. Sure, the price per point today might look like a really good deal, but who's to say it will still look like a deal in 2 years - the trend tends to generally be downward, even if only a few dollars per year. Also, I assume when you get a dues credit, it is based on the cost of dues for the current year - that probably doesn't factor in the inevitable increase for next year (sure, you could try to negotiate it based on current expectations, I suppose). Throw in a delayed closing (so they can get their last Christmas/NYE rental in ). Again, just lots of reasons why, IMO, unless you can get an exceptional deal on a stripped contract, I wouldn't do it. And, even then, with a delayed closing, you risk the seller walking if they think they can get a better deal in a few months.

Ok, I needed to type that out - there is actually a stripped contract with a delayed closing that I have toyed with in my head every once in awhile. Not going to do it. Not going to do it.

 

[Carouselofplanning]

This is why I’m here. This is the wisdom I’m looking for, thank you!

 

[eticketplease]

Also, I assume when you get a dues credit, it is based on the cost of dues for the current year - that probably doesn't factor in the inevitable increase for next year (sure, you could try to negotiate it based on current expectations, I suppose).

That is why I avoid them.
There is no way to know what next years dues are other than that they will be higher than what they are reimbursing you for.

I always budget for a dues increase of 10%. I know the trends show they don't go up that much but I like to have a nice surprise that I bought more discounted gift cards than I needed for the dues then to have to scramble last minute to grab some for the rest of the balance of the dues.

The only way I wouldn't mind a stripped contract if it was AUL ubsidized and in my use year.
Since that is never happening I just continue to pass on stripped contracts.