So many stripped resales…

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Back on the topic of resale listings… not only are a lot of listings stripped, but the total number of listings is significantly down from a month or two ago. I’m assuming this is cyclical/seasonal but there aren’t a lot of “good deals” right now. Do we expect that to turn around in the fall? Winter?

I bid on a couple of BCV contracts earlier this year that were priced about $20 above the max of what I was willing to pay. On one of them we got within $5 of each other and I checked in periodically but they decided to pull the listing (that's what the broker told me), the other is still there AFAIK (I stopped being interested in buying a few weeks ago). I suspect some came off the market when commercial renters stopped believing Disney would actually crack down but others just decided they'd rather not sell at all then get 10% less than the price they feel entitled to... just to say, the number of listings coming down doesn't necessarily mean it's a hot sellers market... only that there aren't currently many owners eager to sell.

It's really hard for me to imagine what's going to push resale prices UP in the next 3-6 months (maybe a surprise interest rate cut that doesn't blow out the long end of the yield curve?), but many possible things that could nudge (or jolt!) resale prices down.

 

[Stank]

Are you, by chance, under 50? Just because the last few dips were short doesn't mean the next ones necessarily will be. There have been plenty of recessions worse than 2001, 2008, and 2020, FYI.

I'm not suggesting that anybody should sell now if they have the financial security to hold their contracts for at least 5 years, I'm definitely not selling at least 75% of my contracts (though I'll probably sell one if Disney starts punishing the 21st reservation when 19 of the original 20 were for my own use).

We aren't talking about panic selling to get ahead of market crash, we're talking about people who know they want to get out, getting out quickly to avoid even a short correction or Disney forcing out big commercial renters, so the market coming back in 6-24 months doesn't really help those people.

I am under 50 and they were, objectively, the worst of any of our lifetimes. April 2020 you had literally the worst job losses in American history, and we will never see anything close to that again. 20.5 million jobs lost in one month. Oil was negative $40. Planes were flying near-empty with tickets at all-time lows. Selling DVC was a mistake then. Buying DVC, generally, in 2021/22 were the absolute worst times in the history of the program, outside of outlier deals or some incredible incentives.

DVC inventory has shrunk over the past month. Abruptly after the tax bill, prices have firmed and inventory is still stubbornly lower despite the commercial renter scare.

Bottom line is macro doesn’t matter for DVC beyond a very, very brief window. Commercial renters selling have stripped contracts bare for the next 12 months. Disney alone is the only factor at play that’ll drive prices down $20 or hold steady. Well, that and 2042 expiration as time decay takes over.