We went on at night during our visit at the end of September and the posted wait time was around 50mins. We weren't entirely sure whether it was going to go down or not with Fantasmic and the fireworks, but the posted wait time just kept hovering around there the entire time we were in the section, which was around an hour before the park closed. We were able to pretty much walk right onto TSMM that night.
I don't think we waited for the entire 50 minutes, though. However, I do attribute the shorter wait time due to the fact that we were a party of 3 going on. Now I'm not sure if they do this every night, but the night we were there to get on the ride they separated those who had even numbers and those that had odd, I think they might have started using the FP lane? We were in line past the closing time of like 8:30pm.
Anyway, once we got closer to the front they asked us how many people were in our party and then directed us to the right. The line on the right was much shorter and we think we must've bypassed the majority of people who were waiting from that point on.