Side by side comparison 2020 Point Charts vs 2019

[DougEMG]

The studio mess though is a problem that Disney made. They reduced minimum point buy in and they sold bungalow/cabin points knowing full well that the vast majority of people they were selling the points to couldn't afford those bungalows/cabins. Both of these actions caused a huge increase in demand for studios.

 

[cwdefouw]

I have just finished doing the math for BWV, BCV, BLT, and AKV. Going with the rule that all 2 bedroom units are considered dedicated units for the purposes of calculating point charts, then the point reallocation for these 4 resorts were done within the POS rules and my calculations have the point totals for these 4 resorts for 2020 coming up within .02% of the point totals for 2019, (the .02% variation is due to the fact that we don't know what "Base Year" Disney is choosing for their calculations, I used 2018 and the math from the DVCNews website article on the reallocation). However as others have mentioned, the problem is the Lockoff Premium. A Lockoff Premium is a fact of life with DVC, and I have no problem with an appropriate Lockoff Premium. My concern is that there may not be anything in the POS that prevents them from doing what they did with the Lockoff Premium for 2020, every year moving forward. For BCV, the Lockoff Premium added 62456 points to the chart over 2019 levels, BWV added 27308 points to the chart over 2019 levels, BLT added 135801 points to the chart over 2019 levels, and AKV added 250886 points to the chart over 2019 levels. These numbers for the Lockoff Premium were calculated by taking the number of points required in 2020 to book every lockoff studio and every lockoff 1 bedroom for the entire year and subtracting the number of points required to book every lockoff two bedroom as a two bedroom unit, then comparing the results to the same calculations for 2019. Even though a glance at any of the charts seems to show small increases of 1 or 2 points and an occasional decrease here and there, A lot of points have been added to the charts! These points represent 100% profit to Disney. When we bought DVC in the late 90's, a crucial part of our decision was based on the basic premise that the number of points required for a particular unit in a particular season would stay basically unchanged for the life of our ownership. I have no use for 2 bedroom units and always book a studio or a one bedroom, and I think this may be fairly common for a lot of owners. These are exactly the units that DVC has increased. I have read a lot of comments about how it doesn't make sense that they would increase the 1 bedroom units as they seem to be the least popular. The reason they increased the 1 bedroom units is because they can, using the Lockoff Premium. Studios and 1 bedroom units are the only unit types that they can raise using this, so they did. However just because a unit is popular does not mean that Disney should violate the spirit of the POS and start raising the required points for these units using the Lockoff Premium. If the POS does not have language to prevent it and owners do not show Disney that they are concerned with the changes, there is nothing to stop them from using the Lockoff Premium ruthlessly and doing the same thing year after year, raising studios and one bedrooms by up to 20% per year, while showing a token decrease here and there on two bedroom and 3 bedroom units, all staying within the POS rules for reallocation. Hopefully Zavandor can get an appropriate response from DVC management regarding these changes. I, for one, am not at all happy!

 

[Madame]

. For BCV, the Lockoff Premium added 62456 points to the chart over 2019 levels,

One angry BCV owner here. We paid a premium for BCV points in part because of the lower points chart compared to newer resorts. This is underhanded.

 

[tjkraz]

A lot of points have been added to the charts! These points represent 100% profit to Disney.

Thanks for running the numbers. However, I think it's very important to be clear on a number of issues:

- The numbers you cited are a worst case scenario, assuming that ALL lockoffs are booked separately

- The ONLY way this results is more profit for Disney is if it causes vacant villas to pass through to the breakage period. If a Studio and 1B are booked separately at a premium of 10 points, it does NOT give DVC itself 10 extra points to work with. The system doesn't work that way. The extra points only come into play if they result in net vacancies-- rooms which members no longer have enough points to book--at the breakage window.

- The POS I reviewed states that the Breakage window is to run somewhere between 30-90 days before arrival. I've been told DVC actually uses 60 days. So Disney ONLY profits from breakage when:

- There are unbooked villas in the points inventory 60 days prior to arrival
- Disney successfully rents those villas to cash guests
- The collective income generated by the breakage exceeds the 2.5% stated in the annual budgets

- Villas are also made available to cash guests when members trade-out of DVC resorts (cruises, Concierge collection, etc.) and from points that Disney owns outright. Then you have the breakage revenue earmarked for members. So any added profit from Breakage is at least 4th in line behind these other sources of cash revenue.

It's human nature to assume the worst from Disney with this move, but given that this is the first time the lockoff premium has been adjusted in 29 years, it might be worth considering other options. Things like the increased refurbishment schedule (I posted some numbers on OKW here), changes in average length of stay, changes in member banking / borrowing habits, reduction in the number of points which have gone unused over the years and the resulting impact on member availability, and the volume of unbookable nights at the resorts have undoubtedly changed in the last 3 decades.

*IF* this premium figure continues to grow year-after-year, I wholeheartedly agree that it is worthy of suspicion. One adjustment in 29 years does not strike me as outrageous. And it's very premature to start playing the "what if" game.

 

[RRB]

I have just finished doing the math for BWV, BCV, BLT, and AKV. Going with the rule that all 2 bedroom units are considered dedicated units for the purposes of calculating point charts, then the point reallocation for these 4 resorts were done within the POS rules and my calculations have the point totals for these 4 resorts for 2020 coming up within .02% of the point totals for 2019, (the .02% variation is due to the fact that we don't know what "Base Year" Disney is choosing for their calculations, I used 2018 and the math from the DVCNews website article on the reallocation). However as others have mentioned, the problem is the Lockoff Premium. A Lockoff Premium is a fact of life with DVC, and I have no problem with an appropriate Lockoff Premium. My concern is that there may not be anything in the POS that prevents them from doing what they did with the Lockoff Premium for 2020, every year moving forward. For BCV, the Lockoff Premium added 62456 points to the chart over 2019 levels, BWV added 27308 points to the chart over 2019 levels, BLT added 135801 points to the chart over 2019 levels, and AKV added 250886 points to the chart over 2019 levels. These numbers for the Lockoff Premium were calculated by taking the number of points required in 2020 to book every lockoff studio and every lockoff 1 bedroom for the entire year and subtracting the number of points required to book every lockoff two bedroom as a two bedroom unit, then comparing the results to the same calculations for 2019. Even though a glance at any of the charts seems to show small increases of 1 or 2 points and an occasional decrease here and there, A lot of points have been added to the charts! These points represent 100% profit to Disney. When we bought DVC in the late 90's, a crucial part of our decision was based on the basic premise that the number of points required for a particular unit in a particular season would stay basically unchanged for the life of our ownership. I have no use for 2 bedroom units and always book a studio or a one bedroom, and I think this may be fairly common for a lot of owners. These are exactly the units that DVC has increased. I have read a lot of comments about how it doesn't make sense that they would increase the 1 bedroom units as they seem to be the least popular. The reason they increased the 1 bedroom units is because they can, using the Lockoff Premium. Studios and 1 bedroom units are the only unit types that they can raise using this, so they did. However just because a unit is popular does not mean that Disney should violate the spirit of the POS and start raising the required points for these units using the Lockoff Premium. If the POS does not have language to prevent it and owners do not show Disney that they are concerned with the changes, there is nothing to stop them from using the Lockoff Premium ruthlessly and doing the same thing year after year, raising studios and one bedrooms by up to 20% per year, while showing a token decrease here and there on two bedroom and 3 bedroom units, all staying within the POS rules for reallocation. Hopefully Zavandor can get an appropriate response from DVC management regarding these changes. I, for one, am not at all happy!

Thank you for this detailed report. A couple of questions - 1) You stated "A lot of points have been added to the charts"; What happens to these points? Will DVC sell them as "new resort points"? 2) How can DVC add this many points to the resort that was initially calculated for a certain maximum number of points? Isn't there rules regarding the amount of points that can be sold for a resort? If they did this, it would over burden the resort and increase the ratio of points to members which will result in a shortage of rooms which is exactly what this re-allocation is supposed to help with. 3) You stated "there is nothing to stop them from using the Lockoff Premium ruthlessly and doing the same thing year after year". I go back to my question #2 and ask if there are limits on the number of points that can be sold per resort. 4). Please confirm that this re-allocation is the second time this has happened since the inception of the DVC. Was there a change in the lockoff premium rooms in the first re-allocation? Thanks

 

[Madame]

Thank you for this detailed report. A couple of questions - 1) You stated "A lot of points have been added to the charts"; What happens to these points? Will DVC sell them as "new resort points"? 2) How can DVC add this many points to the resort that was initially calculated for a certain maximum number of points? Isn't there rules regarding the amount of points that can be sold for a resort? If they did this, it would over burden the resort and increase the ratio of points to members which will result in a shortage of rooms which is exactly what this re-allocation is supposed to help with. 3) You stated "there is nothing to stop them from using the Lockoff Premium ruthlessly and doing the same thing year after year". I go back to my question #2 and ask if there are limits on the number of points that can be sold per resort. 4). Please confirm that this re-allocation is the second time this has happened since the inception of the DVC. Was there a change in the lockoff premium rooms in the first re-allocation? Thanks

Not selling them. Forcing members to use more points for the same stay does two things - either forces them to buy OTUP from Disney which they now have an abundance of now that they’ve created a higher points chart than the number of points sold, or they shorten their stay eventually increasing breakage revenue for them.

I think they must be going after 1 bd breakage as they will be more unpopular than ever.

 

[tjkraz]

Thank you for this detailed report. A couple of questions - 1) You stated "A lot of points have been added to the charts"; What happens to these points? Will DVC sell them as "new resort points"? 2) How can DVC add this many points to the resort that was initially calculated for a certain maximum number of points? Isn't there rules regarding the amount of points that can be sold for a resort? If they did this, it would over burden the resort and increase the ratio of points to members which will result in a shortage of rooms which is exactly what this re-allocation is supposed to help with. 3) You stated "there is nothing to stop them from using the Lockoff Premium ruthlessly and doing the same thing year after year". I go back to my question #2 and ask if there are limits on the number of points that can be sold per resort. 4). Please confirm that this re-allocation is the second time this has happened since the inception of the DVC. Was there a change in the lockoff premium rooms in the first re-allocation? Thanks

My post above may answer most of your questions.

In short, no, this does not give DVC ANY additional points to sell. In theory, it means that all owners could use their annual allotment of points, leaving rooms vacant from which Disney could theoretically profit. But DVC is not a single-resort system. Owners have the right to use points at a variety of different destinations, they can access up to 3 years' worth of points at a time via the banking and borrowing provisions, and there are other restrictions on when/how unbooked rooms are made available to cash guests.

Major reallocations like this have not occurred frequently, but there has been at least some adjustment to some resort annually for the last decade. In 2010 and 2011 there were major changes to the weekday/weekend point distribution. SSR treehouses have been adjusted. SSR added Premium/Standard classifications. Aulani has had adjustments.

IMO, it is extremely premature to imply/suggest/fear that Disney will continue growing this "lockoff premium" in the future. In fact, most resorts have dedicated Studio or One Bedroom villas which are an integral part of the overall point calculation.

 

[tjkraz]

....either forces them to buy OTUP from Disney which they now have an abundance of now that they’ve created a higher points chart than the number of points sold....

These adjustments DO NOT "create" One Time Use Points.

One Time Use Points are pulled from DVC's unsold inventory, of which they have plenty at Aulani, Copper Creed and soon Riviera.

 

[RRB]

So if DVC does not sell these newly created points and they aren't used for OTUP's, why are they doing this and what is the concern for DVC members? These new points seem to be in limbo, not used by the Developer or Members?

 

[Madame]

These adjustments DO NOT "create" One Time Use Points.

One Time Use Points are pulled from DVC's unsold inventory, of which they have plenty at Aulani, Copper Creed and soon Riviera.

Do you mind if I ask how you know for certain that they will not be using the inflation created points in this manner? I know you are correct about the use of unsold points.

 

[CarolMN]

Not selling them. Forcing members to use more points for the same stay does two things - either forces them to buy OTUP from Disney which they now have an abundance of now that they’ve created a higher points chart than the number of points sold, or they shorten their stay eventually increasing breakage revenue for them.

I think they must be going after 1 bd breakage as they will be more unpopular than ever.

To be clear, the lock off premium does NOT create OTUP. It creates availability. OTUP are simply points that Disney already owns. Each resort has a set number of points, some of which Disney owns. That number, set before the first sale, does not change over the life of the resort unless Disney adds rooms and increases the size of the resort.

I'm not crazy about paying more for my almost 100% 1 bedroom stays. But I am willing to pay more if it increases my chances of getting what I want, when I want it without a lot of worry, stress & waitlisting. I am not a fan of walking.

IMO, we did this to ourselves. While I would like to know why the 1 bedrooms were increased pretty much across the board, the selfish part of me is glad they didn't make them less expensive. I'm sorry that this reallocation hit some very hard. The past reallocations did, too.

 

[tjkraz]

Do you mind if I ask how you know for certain that they will not be using the inflation created points in this manner? I know you are correct about the use of unsold points.

There is no mechanism for turning those points into an entity which can be leveraged and used by DVC. If a 2BR costs 25 points, that’s 25 points redeemed. If Studio + 1BR are collectively 29 points, the members are redeeming 29 points. The transaction ends there. DVC cannot take the “extra” 4 points and do anything with them differently than the other 25 points.

 

[Madame]

To be clear, the lock off premium does NOT create OTUP. It creates availability. OTUP are simply points that Disney already owns. Each resort has a set number of points, some of which Disney owns. That number, set before the first sale, does not change over the life of the resort unless Disney adds rooms and increases the size of the resort.

I'm not crazy about paying more for my almost 100% 1 bedroom stays. But I am willing to pay more if it increases my chances of getting what I want, when I want it without a lot of worry, stress & waitlisting. I am not a fan of walking.

IMO, we did this to ourselves. While I would like to know why the 1 bedrooms were increased pretty much across the board, the selfish part of me is glad they didn't make them less expensive. I'm sorry that this reallocation hit some very hard. The past reallocations did, too.

Excellent. Thank-you. So it creates availability for DVC to offload the massive amount of Aulani points that it has been unable to sell.... still.... Thanks for the clarification!

 

[Madame]

There is no mechanism for turning those points into an entity which can be leveraged and used by DVC. If a 2BR costs 25 points, that’s 25 points redeemed. If Studio + 1BR are collectively 29 points, the members are redeeming 29 points. The transaction ends there. DVC cannot take the “extra” 4 points and do anything with them differently than the other 25 points.

As I stated above, it’s provided them the opportunity to offload points as OTUP from Aulani which is en route to sell out.... never.

 

[RRB]

To be clear, the lock off premium does NOT create OTUP. It creates availability. OTUP are simply points that Disney already owns. Each resort has a set number of points, some of which Disney owns. That number, set before the first sale, does not change over the life of the resort unless Disney adds rooms and increases the size of the resort.

I'm not crazy about paying more for my almost 100% 1 bedroom stays. But I am willing to pay more if it increases my chances of getting what I want, when I want it without a lot of worry, stress & waitlisting. I am not a fan of walking.

IMO, we did this to ourselves. While I would like to know why the 1 bedrooms were increased pretty much across the board, the selfish part of me is glad they didn't make them less expensive. I'm sorry that this reallocation hit some very hard. The past reallocations did, too.

Interesting post. By saying "we did this to ourselves", do you mean that we reserved the "cheap" rooms of choice for our stays and now are experiencing the result? I'm with you regarding the trade off of increased availability of 1 BR due to a higher point cost. We almost exclusively select 1 BR suites.

 

[Madame]

Interesting post. By saying "we did this to ourselves", do you mean that we reserved the "cheap" rooms of choice for our stays and now are experiencing the result? I'm with you regarding the trade off of increased availability of 1 BR due to a higher point cost. We almost exclusively select 1 BR suites.

But why would you choose to stay in a 1bd now?!? I suppose it’s resort & season dependant, but have you checked the chart in terms of 1 vs 2 bd for your desired resort/time frame just to make sure?

 

[RRB]

But why would you choose to stay in a 1bd now?!? I suppose it’s resort & season dependant, but have you checked the chart in terms of 1 vs 2 bd for your desired resort/time frame just to make sure?

You're right, now that the points have changed. We will re-evaluate our tips in 2020 accordingly. We may even stay in a Bungalow or Cabin!

 

[Madame]

You're right, now that the points have changed. We will re-evaluate our tips in 2020 accordingly. We may even stay in a Bungalow or Cabin!

If they’re going to mess some of us over, others might as well benefit! We won’t be able to stay over Christmas week anymore, but our March break, end of Aug and first week of January trips will be 2bds from now on out. 1bds became even less point effective than they were (& they really were bad).

 

[CarolMN]

But why would you choose to stay in a 1bd now?!? I suppose it’s resort & season dependant, but have you checked the chart in terms of 1 vs 2 bd for your desired resort/time frame just to make sure?

It's usually just the two of us & we prefer dedicated villas. BWV has only lock off 2 bedrooms.

 

[RRB]

for those interested in the legal side of this issue, there are some recent posts in another thread that are very interesting. This is a complex issue. See the recent posts at https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...p-revert-the-2020-reallocation.3726101/page-2