Should I heed the crowd calendars in January?

[diamondcharl]

We are going to be there the week of Jan 9. Do you think I need to pay attention to the crowd calendar for each park? Do you think it will make a difference which park we go to any given day?

 

[MataHari22]

Yes. In slower times, it's often even more important to do so.

 

[sharonabe]

YES, YES, YES. My personal opinion of those reporting back how crowded everything is even in what is supposed to be low crowds is that they do NOT factor in crowd calendar, because they think just like you did that it does not matter. It matters even more than crowded times.

 

[surran12]

who has the best crown calendar to go off of

 

[LJSquishy]

Do you need to? No. Would it make your trip operate more smoothly if you did? Yes.

Even when a crowd calendar is at a level 2 or 3, wait times at the most popular rides and attractions can still be quite long. If you've gone to WDW in past years a crowd level 2 or 3 today is what used to be considered a level 5 a few years ago. More people, longer standby queues, etc.

In addition, going during a slower time of year generally means more rides and attractions are down for refurbishment, which in return can increase wait times at the attractions that are open since there are less available attractions to disperse people more evenly. Finally, low crowd times also usually mean decreased park hours which translates into more people being there at the same time as everyone else instead of people spreading out their arrivals between a 9am opening through extra magic hours of a 1am close. Instead, the park may only be open 9am to 8pm.

Your arrival weekend is the Half Marathon / Marathon weekend which is pretty busy, and the following Fri/Sat/Sun (15th-17th) is also quite busy. It will be especially important to structure your park days wisely on the 9th and 10th, and also the 15th-17th if you'll still be there.

 

[LJSquishy]

who has the best crown calendar to go off of

EasyWDW has been the most accurate for many of us for years. It's also free!

 

[loves to dive]

As usual I'm going to go against the grain. Crowd calendars are guesses based on historical data. There is no way someone can know months in advance what any given day at any given park is going to be. There are factors that are beyond prediction. Is the weather nasty? If so, people may not go to the parks, and the calendars may say it was supposed to be a 9 that day. They are best guesses, take it from there. Personally, I've never looked at one in my entire time of visiting the parks. I go, I have my 3 FPs (maybe some times I don't bother) I look at the lines are they long (no I don't look at the wait times they aren't always right) I decide and either stand in line or move on.

 

[boufa]

As usual I'm going to go against the grain. Crowd calendars are guesses based on historical data. There is no way someone can know months in advance what any given day at any given park is going to be. There are factors that are beyond prediction. Is the weather nasty? If so, people may not go to the parks, and the calendars may say it was supposed to be a 9 that day. They are best guesses, take it from there. Personally, I've never looked at one in my entire time of visiting the parks. I go, I have my 3 FPs (maybe some times I don't bother) I look at the lines are they long (no I don't look at the wait times they aren't always right) I decide and either stand in line or move on.

I will say that with some crowd calenders you are a little right, but I would rather go with historical averages than random guessing.

Easywdw and a few others have basic touring concepts, and apply them. Crowds tend to behave in the same ways most of the time. So the park the day after a pm emh is very likely to be lesser crowded. As for using them when slow... yes, 100%. Why, the crowds tend to concentrate at slow times in a single park, and move from day to day. So if you avoid the park with all of the crowds, then you will be in a park that is significantly slower. In a busy season, those tendencies get canceled out by the shear numbers of people.

On my Feb trip, one park is a 6 and another is a 1.... I don't care about the exact numbers, just that one park is more likely to be significantly busier. Guess which park I'm heading for that day.

 

[cigar95]

I will say that with some crowd calenders you are a little right, but I would rather go with historical averages than random guessing.

While TouringPlans admits that their calendar is presently in flux, with the unexpected crowds the past couple months, their model includes something like 260 factors, some of which are historical averages, but they have a lot of other stuff as well. (School schedules, gas prices, and hotel rates come to mind.) And for a long time, it worked well. To their credit, when it went way haywire since the end of summer, they saw something was wrong, and they've been working on updating the model.

 

[scurvyfreedman]

I overlay EasyWDW, Touring Plans, and Undercover Tourist. If they all have the same park as the one to go to that day, the choice is obvious. If it's 2 out of 3, then I go there as well. Rarely, none agree and there are 3 different choices so I see what is also listed as the worst choice. It's also important to see which park is the worst park on all three charts if you are planning to park hop.

 

[kj2mom]

I always check out the crowd calendars and do my best to plan for the anticipated lowest crowd but I do not let the calendars control me. For example, we always go to MK on our last day. Sometimes that is a day when MK is the reddest of the red on the calendars but I don't care. I just go in anticipating the craziness and have a great last day. I definitely take them into consideration no matter the time of year but I don't let it completely take over.

 

[boufa]

While TouringPlans admits that their calendar is presently in flux, with the unexpected crowds the past couple months, their model includes something like 260 factors, some of which are historical averages, but they have a lot of other stuff as well. (School schedules, gas prices, and hotel rates come to mind.) And for a long time, it worked well. To their credit, when it went way haywire since the end of summer, they saw something was wrong, and they've been working on updating the model.

Really, did their crowd calendar fail. Is there any way for any crowd tracking software to detect or predict a 15% attendance increase, like Disney had this fall.

 

[mgentry210]

I say yes in the "slower seasons", and if you are going anytime listed as a busy week, just do what you want and expect it to be busy.

 

[minnie mum]

Depends on which crowd calendar. I follow easywdw.com's recommendations, ESPECIALLY on low crowd days.

 

[anniemae]

I am starting to move away from the crowd calendars. We went in Aug and there was ALWAYS one crowded park every day and we were always in it. Any it was always the park that was the targeted "best" one to be in that day.

I think too many people are following them and as a result the predictions are not as accurate. We were chatting with a family on the bus one morning on the way to AK, we saw them the next morning on the bus to MK. She kind of smiled at me and said "are you doing HS tomorrow?" with a smile. She was also following the same prediction calendar. As were the zillion other people at Disney.

 

[rwdavis2]

Also keep in mind that although the crowds may be lower the parks will not run rides at full capacity so wait times can be just ad bad. Out last trip a few years ago they only had one side of Space Mtn. running.

 

[Mikie]

I always follow the calendars *absent extenuating factors*. If I have no other method of selection, crowd calendar is the way to go. If I can only get a coveted reservation on a certain day, or am meeting someone who really wants to do Epcot, or need to catch a ride before scheduled refurb, I let those things override a crowd calendar. Touring Plans offers a crowd calendar and I use it, but even they say it is more important to have a plan of attack than it is to pick the right park.

 

[rwdavis2]

....Touring Plans offers a crowd calendar and I use it, but even they say it is more important to have a plan of attack than it is to pick the right park.

I've read that as well. A touring plan always trumps "best day".

 

[okilydokily]

I don't really trust the crowd calendars much these days. They are maybe a guideline but not all that accurate. I think with all the changes from FP+, it will take a few years to where they are accurate enough to be useful. Also, crowds keep going up, so they seem awfully wrong to me most times I go. Remember that in slower times, park hours are shorter, so the actual may be different then expectations. That is why I always had hoppers, if one place is bad, I can just run off to the next park.

 

[siskaren]

I think too many people are following them and as a result the predictions are not as accurate.

I disagree. I would be willing to bet that on any given day that the percentage of people following a crowd calendar is fairly low, plus there's the fact that the two most often used ones (Touring Plans and easyWDW) don't always agree on which park is the best one to visit each day.