seriously....how accurate are crowd calendars?

[ChisJo]

I'm looking at 2 different websites with crowd calendars on it. They both give different opinions about crowds on the days we will be there. So now I have to ask...how accurate are these things??? I have followed one in the past, but Disney is Disney and is busy regardless, so I have no idea if the crowd calendar was accurate. Any opinions?

 

[PIRATEGIRL007]

We find the touring plans calendar to be accurate for our trips. We have used it in some form since 2005 which is about 12+ trips. Thier wait times guesstimates were usually within 20 minutes which I think is pretty good. Since the update to the new formula and the per park crowd predictions I think it is still pretty accurate. The problem is most people don't understand it and then come on here and other sites and complain about how wrong it is all the while stating X was the wait times that should be a 5, when X is exactly a mid range 5. Its half humerous, mostly annoying. Touring plans now offers a historical calendar and actual crowds vs projected crowds info on thier site so you can gage thier accuracy for yourself with a membership.

 

[ChisJo]

Which touring plans are you using? are you using touringplans.com? I was also looking at easywdw.com and they differ significantly. I was looking at these sites more for crowd calendars than touring advice.

I used tour guide Mike years ago and liked it, but I was travelling by myself and I didn't really need to follow it as getting onto rides as a single rider is pretty easy.

 

[Belle & Ariel]

The biggest complaint about touring plan's crowd calendar is that it changes as your date nears. People make plans to go a certain week, book hotel and airfare, make ADRs, and what was a small crowd prediction escalates and people fret over their trip.
I wonder if their historical info on accuracy is based on their first guess a year out or their final prediction the day before. Anyone can look outside when it is raining and predict with 100% accuracy that it will rain today.
The problem with touring plans is all the wrong forecasts people are trusting in the months leading up when they are planning and making reservations based on guesses which change often.
The easywdw site uses different criteria to determine best days than tp. One focuses on avoiding the park with EMH, Fantasmic days at DHS, and MSSSHP and MVMCP at MK. If you have park hoppers, you can have low crowds on the party days at MK whereas if you don't you would want to go there when it is open later. So neither site knows entirely what you are looking for and the best days recommended may not apply to you.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

What are your dates?

 

[seashoreCM]

What I am not sure of is whteher the system takes into account Christmas on a Wednesday versus Christmas on a Saturday, or Thanksgiving early in the month versus Thanksgiving late in the month.

If the system gives a narrative explaining why such and such day has a park as the best park or the worst park then you should be able to believe it mroe.

 

[thej]

Based on our just completed trip, the couple I've used are not very accurate. For MK a supposed light/green day was more like an 8, and the heavy/red day was more like a 5. They seem to put a lot more stock in EMH than anything else. I'm to the point where I plan based on what we want to do except for holidays.

 

[WelovMickey!]

Based on our just completed trip, the couple I've used are not very accurate. For MK a supposed light/green day was more like an 8, and the heavy/red day was more like a 5. They seem to put a lot more stock in EMH than anything else. I'm to the point where I plan based on what we want to do except for holidays.

Were you using TGM? I use touringplans and they are always seemed to be right on the money when we went on our trips. In fact I use them for our up comings trips too.

 

[WelovMickey!]

Which touring plans are you using? are you using touringplans.com? I was also looking at easywdw.com and they differ significantly. I was looking at these sites more for crowd calendars than touring advice.

I used tour guide Mike years ago and liked it, but I was travelling by myself and I didn't really need to follow it as getting onto rides as a single rider is pretty easy.

That's one of the main things that touringplans.com offers is the crowd calendar. That's the number one reason I have the membership there.

 

[lllGurulll]

I trust TGM over all of them.

 

[Phillygrl23]

Do you think it applies to "holiday" times? Wouldn't they mostly be 8,9, 10's anyway? We did purchase a membership to TP, but avoid EMH (at least in the AM) anyway. We are going the week before Easter, so I know it will be crowded regardless. TP has it as all 9's or 10's, as of today.

How are they in regards to the actual plans? Like what to ride and when?

 

[Toad_Passenger]

While a lot of the crowd calendars seem fairly accurate, they are still trying to "predict" what's going to happen.

Right now people seem to be concerned about the Spring Break weeks, but I'm not putting too much stock in the calendars this year because of how odd Spring Break is this year. Easter is way later and that throws all of the historical predictions into disarray. Schools are spreading their breaks out over several different weeks, so I think it is very difficult to pinpoint what's going to happen this year.

Beyond that, it does seem that they don't take everything into consideration, but who can blame them?

In the end, plan your trip and don't worry about the calendars. It's Disney World, and the most crowded day is still doable...and much more enjoyable than sitting at home in a cubicle watching the rain outside.

 

[SirGalahad]

As the previous poster said, they are predictions. There are so many people checking websites and books to find the less crowded times that you may find your less crowded time, crowded. Just go with the idea that it is the most visited place in the world and you may find crowds here and there. As long as you get in your mindset that you may have to wait a little longer for certain things, you'll be okay.

 

[Disneybound!!]

In the end, plan your trip and don't worry about the calendars. It's Disney World, and the most crowded day is still doable...and much more enjoyable than sitting at home in a cubicle watching the rain outside.

Well said! I like to look at the predictions, but don't let it stop me from enjoying myself regardless of what they say.

 

[kathy884]

Most of my visits have been on 9 and 10 days, and there is actually a big difference between a 9 and a 10. Getting up early and using a touring plan though even makes a 10 day manageable. I wouldn't get too worked up about crowd calendars. // On the four trips where I've subscribed to touringplans.com, I personally thought their predications were pretty on the money. These didn't change at the last minute either. But then it is pretty easy to predict heavy crowds for a popular summer week, a popular spring break week, the week before Christmas, and that heavy time between Christmas and New Year's day.

 

[rie'smom]

Were you using TGM? I use touringplans and they are always seemed to be right on the money when we went on our trips. In fact I use them for our up comings trips too.

nevermind I misread this

 

[thej]

I'm just using thefree ones and UT. A friend showed me a TGM plan for a trip they were doing and personally I didn't think it isworth the cost for us.