200 Poly points for an existing
DVC member would qualify for $11/point off of the base $235 price, or $224/point. You can use
D23 Gold status to get an additional $500 off. Then, if you use magical beginnings, that would be an additional $4,000 off. You can use a cash back credit card to pay for the entire purchase and/or take advantage of any promotional 0% financing that might be available (which, if you have money in the bank, can continue to accumulate interest). To be conservative, let's just say you'd get 2% cash back on the purchase.
So, 200 x $224 = $44,800. Take off $4,500 and $896 (2% of purchase price). That comes to $39,404.
Looks to me that resale Poly is currently averaging around $165/point. Let's assume you can get exactly 200 points in one resale contract for that price, so closing costs are a wash. 200 x $165 = $33,000. Some title companies will let you pay some amount of that with credit card without any fees, but let's just leave that out for now, since it depends on the title company.
There are 40 years left on a Poly contract. $39,404 - $33,000 = $6,404. That's about $160/year over the life of the contract.
(I'm ignoring dues which could also affect the difference - when you buy direct, you pay prorated dues, but when resale, you often pay for an entire year of points even if you didn't have the points for the entire year, although that can be negotiated.)
The direct points will load immediately - no ROFR, no waiting for seller to sign, no waiting for Disney to load the points. You can book a "welcome home" stay with those points. The direct points will qualify you for direct benefits - discounts on merchandise, discounts on APs, moonlight magic events, membership magic beyond (and BOGO OTUPs). No, none of those discounts are guaranteed, but I think it's a safe bet you'll get some savings each year on something if you're a direct member. And, those direct points can be used at RIV, VDH, CFW, and any future resort that Disney builds, including LSL. The resale Poly points will be restricted from use at those resorts and any new resorts. And, Disney could roll out future benefits for direct points, further enhancing their value.
Is all that worth an extra $160/year? For me, it's a no brainer. Absolutely yes.