We rode SDMT on Saturday, October 4 with no FP at RD. Our experience went something like this:
We arrived at MK at 8:00 a.m. - an hour before the posted 9:00 a.m. park opening. We were literally the first two people at the waiting area to enter the park, but many more followed soon after. We all sat around waiting for the RD activities to commence. Because the WDWRR is down, the "opening ceremony" was quite brief. And they did start walking us in by about 8:45.
To say it was a stampede might be a slight exaggeration. But it wasn't fun. Yes, they do walk everyone up main street as a group, but people are still jockeying for position. Strollers, arms, legs, feet, elbows, Ipads, cell phones - everything was a big jumbled mess. And you're packed in there like a can of sardines. The whole way to the ride I was saying that we should have found some other way to ride SDMT. But we tried to keep our senses of humor about it.
The group did peel off to the right before we hit the castle and went around that direction. DH and I kept up the pace of the group, but I refused to be an a** about it, as many others did. Even though we were first in line outside the park, by the time we got to the ride we weren't even close. Let's just say that this herd was made for line cutters. But that said, we did practically walk on the ride. By the time we got off the ride, though, the line was insane. Can't imagine how long that wait was. I would imagine that there were people who got to the MK at 8:30, thinking they were ahead of the pack, who ended up waiting at least 30 minutes. I guess in this case the early bird really does get the worm.
One other item of note: When our herd of cattle arrived at the ride, there was clearly another large group of people trying to get there from another direction - towards the carousel. Not sure if these were "breakfast" people who got held up at another waiting area or what, but they weren't pleased to arrive there just as the masses were already lining up.
Would I do it again? Probably not. Especially not with small children. No way. It's just not worth it. I would pick a "slower" time, like parade or fireworks, and just wait in line. (And that is saying something, as I NEVER wait in SB lines!) The queue is neat, and there were kids in our herd who wanted to play with some of the stuff along the way but the parents had to move them along so as not to hold up the line or lose their position. I also really missed the nice walk up Main Street, taking in the castle and the CM's waving, etc. In the herd, you have to watch your feet or you'll end up getting trampled.
It is absolutely doable if it is a high priority for you and your group. But you need to be there early and be ready to jockey for position in the herd. Be mentally prepared, too! If you can handle it, it's all good.