?'s about Hurricane Ivan- Updated with 5am path

[2angelsinheaven]

After weathering Frances in Melbourne I'm getting a little concerned about Ivan. We are not in the direct path as of the latest forcasted path, however we are in the margain of error. My main ? is this... how far away in FL does anyone know would it have to hit for us not to be affected again. I'm thinking we could still feel it in Melbourne if it does hit Miami or Tampa which are two possibilities from what I've seen or it may just go west... but I'm not taking any chances. Anyone heard yet how far the winds extend out from the eye on this one? I'm hoping, but my god it's "an extremely dangerous cat 4" according to the 8pm report and they only think it will strengthen more, possibly a 5 by tomorrow and they plan on it remaining 4 or 5 at landfall.

 

[ADisneygirl]

As far as the newscasters in my area are saying, they think that the destination of Ivan depends upon this low pressure trough of air in the atmosphere. If the trough is strong, then Ivan will turn sooner toward the Atlantic side of Florida (because it will be pushed by the trough). If the trough is weaker, it will allow Ivan to travel into the gulf and then it is possible that the west coast of Florida will see it, or it could go straight out into the gulf and head elsewhere.

They can not possibly tell how strong or weak this trough will be for a few days yet, so no one can really say where it will go yet. Of course, all of us here in Florida would like the chance to tell it where to go.

 

[2angelsinheaven]

Originally posted by ADisneygirl
Of course, all of us here in Florida would like the chance to tell it where to go.

Ah come on you didn't have fun with the last two that ripped through Fl?!?! Anyhow preach on I would love to see this thing disapear my nerves are shot to you know where... I guess we will know more Sat or Sunday...

 

[dizny4us]

Originally posted by ADisneygirl
Of course, all of us here in Florida would like the chance to tell it where to go.

I couldn't agree more!

 

[missyc]

You know, these "storms" really need to get their acts together a little sooner. I would like a few days notice (guaranteed of course) so I can get OUT OF HERE!!
My kids are trying to make me promise that we won't stay if Ivan comes our way.

 

[ADisneygirl]

I've about had enough. If Ivan is planning a visit to my house (2 miles from the gulf) then we are planning on being elsewhere. I will pack up my photo albums and important papers (again) and get in the car and drive right out of this state. Maybe I won't come back. Often I wish we never moved here, but now I am pretty stuck. WDW proximity is the only draw for me.

 

[Serena]

Stay safe.

 

[Shutterbug]

links to current model tracks. Although most of the model tracks look at Florida, everyone on the Gulf of Mexico needs to keep their eyes on this one. This thing is a monster already...9 dead in Grenada. Maximum sustained winds are 145 mph. At 156mph it becomes a category 5.

link 1

link 2

 

[chyam]

I am right there with you, I am so worn out by all of this mess, I have alot of co workers who are still without electricity, I was fortunate only was off for 2-3 hours. I go to work and stare at the computer.........every weather site available and then worry about what I am going to do! This one has me on edge since it looks like if I do flee and head north it will be close behind me....I am almost drained, and although I do not wish this on anyone....please please please be anywhere but here!

 

[2angelsinheaven]

Geesh can't FL get a break, this thing is now a cat 5 with winds 160mph sustained... yikes! They predict it will come ashore up the center of FL... thats 3 major hurricanes in about a months time in this state, would that be some sort of record? AND we still don't have power from Frances... argh!! FPL tells me they will have an estimate by late Friday evening on a date of restoration.
I say leave it off till this one goes away, what a mess!

 

[floridaminnie]

Ok if this Ivan decides to come visit I'm leaving for Texas. And I might not come back. Enough is enough is enough!

 

[Dan Murphy]

Wow, just heard on weather update it has gusts of 210! Sure hope it calms down before it hits any coasts or anymore landfalls. It has sure wreaked some damage in the Caribbean. Good wishes with everyone.

 

[2angelsinheaven]

Anyone heard yet how far the winds extend from the eye, I know with Frances at one point it was 85 for the hurricane strength and 185-200 for tropical storm strength. And just two weeks ago I was telling DFiance how they NEVER come to Brevard... boy was I wrong... this will be #3.

 

[CRB#33]

Evidently it flattened 90% of the homes in Grenada! 20 dead last I heard. Jamaica is next in that path! I was there last year and that Island will suffer so much!!! God help them.

I'm also praying for it to weaken quickly and a lot!!!

Take care all!

 

[bubie2.5]

I'm in the island just above Ivan (in the south coast), I would hate to think what would happen if it goes up just a little bit.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm9/ivancloseupsatellite_large.html

 

[Serena]

This is scary. Ivan the Terrible needs to go away.

 

[2angelsinheaven]

The news here was playing it down to prevent panic amoung people who are already tired from Frances/Charley. But we are planning anyhow, you never know when it could turn 1 degree and hit a completly different place, as far as I'm concerned I'm in the margain of error and now the path so I'm planning accordingly.

 

[Dan Murphy]

Originally posted by 2angelsinheaven
Anyone heard yet how far the winds extend from the eye, I know with Frances at one point it was 85 for the hurricane strength and 185-200 for tropical storm strength. And just two weeks ago I was telling DFiance how they NEVER come to Brevard... boy was I wrong... this will be #3.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT LEAST 160 MPH...255
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A RARE CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...IVAN COULD STILL INTENSIFY A
LITTLE MORE THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/022031.shtml?

 

[2angelsinheaven]

As of 2am Tuesday it will be in Brevard County.

 

[newholiday]

OMG! this is awful
anything shown after Ivan? or will it finally quiet down?