Disney has been successful with DVC, in fact it has been a while since they have made a Disney only hotel. I remember reading somewhere that is where Disneys focus is, building more DVCs.
That's primarily because Disney over-built their own cash accommodations. When they have to offer "free dining" and other incentives, it demonstrates how there are just too many Disney rooms (at Disney prices) relative to guest demand.
I have noticed that even with the amount of DVCs available now that reservations can be tough to get at times.
I believe the main reason for that is because the
point charts had gotten so far out of whack. There were more and more members--new and old--gravitating to the same seasons and the same days of the week (weekdays.) During the weekends many rooms are sitting empty. With DVC selling enough points for the resorts to be filled year-round, and demand for weekends being very soft, competition for the weekdays and popular vacation periods has only grown more intense.
The 2010 reallocation to balance weekday/weekend usage combined with a future reallocation to update the DVC seasons should fix a lot of that.
Don't get me wrong--DVC has been a big cash cow for Disney. But between AKV, BLT and SSR they currently have about 300-400 units ready to be sold. That's a pretty big pile of unsold inventory.
Hawaii will add another 450 units to the system in 2011.
In terms of the WDW resorts, that inventory could easily keep them selling for 2-4 years. Even if the Grand Floridian is the next DVC site, it would probably be conversion of existing rooms. The AKV/Jambo conversion showed us that Disney can complete a project like that in about 9 months. So they could easily announce a DVC Grand Floridian in 2012 and have it ready for sales in 2013.
If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on a second Contemporary Tower being the next DVC project. If so, the Grand Floridian could be even further down the road.