Rumor by agent - Blue Card min. going up

[LTJoeFlo]

I think it comes down to marketing. They wanted to sell more contracts so went after the studio/hotel group targeting them for a cheaper alternative.

They know though that 99% of people they talk to around the parks and resorts are looking at the price not the room size. So they market the resorts correctly to sell out as quickly as possible. While its harder to get a studio its not impossible at any resort that I know of so its not hurting the membership in general.

Want more studios open? Lower the price of the 1BR and raise the price of the studios so people pay a slight premium.

Your point on marketing is a good one. I think you are right that it is easier to sell membership to DVC at a lower price point. However, your next statement on raising the price of studios would also raise the cost of initial buy-in.

I still believe raising the minimum number of points is the most efficient way of solving the studio inventory issue. And probably raise the overall satisfaction of DVC members. The stories from original OKW purchasers are strengthening this argument. The problem is, we need to see a big jump to see this happen. It really should be 200+. This would really help resale and better segment the direct/resale markets.

There is an upward trend in the number of points needed for a studio. If you purchase 125 points at Riviera, you can barely afford a week in a tower studio or deluxe studio. And most seasons, you can't even do that. So those purchasers will be using their points to stay at cheaper resorts. I'm speaking from experience because my first contract was 150 points at VGF. That isn't enough to stay at my home resort every year, so I stayed at other resorts. Most of the time I stayed at AKL. If you look at the point difference, my 150 points will only allow me 7 nights in standard studio in June (actually 3 points shy), but I can use those same points to stay 11 nights at a standard AKL studio. See the problem??

I also agree about the spread of 1BRs. I should not be able to book two studios for the price of a 1BR. Especially if they sleep the same number of people! It creates another strain on studio inventory.

 

[sethschroeder]

However, your next statement on raising the price of studios would also raise the cost of initial buy-in.

That was not a solution to selling more that was a solution to those complaining about studios being hard to book or point buy-in being to low.

I still believe raising the minimum number of points is the most efficient way of solving the studio inventory issue.

Not unless the minimum is the cost of 7-8 nights in a 1BR which would around 300-325 points at Riviera. I could be wrong but from this forum it seems DVC members overwhelmingly stay for 7+ nights (many all at once and others across multiple trips).

my 150 points will only allow me 7 nights in standard studio in June (actually 3 points shy), but I can use those same points to stay 11 nights at a standard AKL studio. See the problem??

There isn't a problem buy where you want to stay, easily book your trip during your home reservation period, and then switch if you want/can.

You can not solve for rooms being gone at 7 months. The top resorts will always have their rooms gone before or right at 8am at 7 months.

The only solution is a 1BR vs Studio point spread so close that 50% of people want a 1BR and 50% of people want a studio. This is no different than the point chart balance for seasons. If a specific season is more in demand you need to raise the points while lower a season less in demand until it balances.

 

[LTJoeFlo]

Not unless the minimum is the cost of 7-8 nights in a 1BR which would around 300-325 points at Riviera. I could be wrong but from this forum it seems DVC members overwhelmingly stay for 7+ nights (many all at once and others across multiple trips).

Completely agree. Assuming the point charts are close to being the same, the 260 minimum was enough to purchase a 2BR every year at OKW. 450 points might be a little much for a minimum. Haha

There isn't a problem buy where you want to stay, easily book your trip during your home reservation period, and then switch if you want/can.

You can not solve for rooms being gone at 7 months. The top resorts will always have their rooms gone before or right at 8am at 7 months.

You are looking at this from the perspective of a seasoned DVC pro, not that of the average first-time buyer. DVC is incentivizing a particular behavior with current promotions and minimum point purchases. I agree you should buy where you want to stay, but I didn't know about availability issues until after I was a member. There is probably a reason DVC doesn't provide access to availability until after you sign the contract. I would assume most new buyers don't consider this. I only focused on the flexibility aspect of membership.

Right now, the cheapest resort is Riviera. According to the numbers that @i<3riviera put out, the average contract size is about 165 points. It's hard to extrapolate vacation plans based on point values but this number could suggest that half the Riviera contracts will barely allow them to stay 7 days in a deluxe studio. I understand that there is a finite number of points in circulation, but there are also some very high-point rooms that seem to always be available. This is another straining factor.

I have booked 2 studio in the past 5 years (2019 SSR pref. / 2019 PVB), so I am not fully versed in the challenges of booking a studio (my PVB stay was during Dorian so that doesn't count. Every resort had full availability). But, I do read about members complaining about availability. DVC is probably aware of the problem and I think that is why they are making these very unpopular changes. Raising the minimum purchase amount and forcing people to stay where they buy (when purchasing RIV resale).

 

[sethschroeder]

But, I do read about members complaining about availability.

Is there people saying though at 11 months they are being completely locked out other than maybe the first 2 weeks of December? Or are these people upset that a specific category (likely the less expensive one) is not available?

I guess I am missing these threads where they can't get any type of studio in their home resort 11 months out.

Right now, the cheapest resort is Riviera.

Eh I personally don't agree that Riviera is the cheapest. If you book at your home resort it has much high points charts (plus you miss out on cheaper views at other resorts). If you book SAP points high MFs (highest at WDW and likely will remain highest or be in top 2-3 for the next decade at the very least). If you look at upfront OKW/SSR is cheaper (selling off the resort might also factor in your math VGF will pull more on the resale market than RIV for the next 30 years).

One of the major flaws from people pushing the Riviera narrative is the long term outlook of MFs. They will twist numbers and try to outline how Riviera will have lower MFs than all these other resorts in less than a decade. Only time will tell but I am not betting on MFs increases being wildly different than other resorts.

RIV is one of the better possible options if you plan on owning and going for the next 50 years though.

You are looking at this from the perspective of a seasoned DVC pro, not that of the average first-time buyer.

All I can do is point to you being able to book your own home resort. I did the research, learned about the system, and knew the issues with possibly booking at 7 months. If someone else choose to buy without knowledge that is on them.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[CastAStone]

31% (~1.7k) of new member RVA direct purchases were between 100 and 124 points; 25% buy exactly 100 points

so that's 31% (20% of all sales) of new member RVA direct customers that may well be given incentive to buy an additional up-to 25% more points to qualify for a blue card in the future (assuming the rumor is true)

but why stop there? for new members at RVA (with current incentives) ...

100 points = 19.5k USD​

125 points = 24.4k USD (+4.9k USD)​

150 points = 27.0k USD (+2.6k USD)​

if you're going to buy-up to blue card level, you might as well spend ~half the upgrade from 125 points to get to 150 points, right?! those additional 25 points (from 125 points) come at only 105 USD per incremental point; talk about a low-low price no-brainer, eh?! just sign here ...

now you've just convinced someone that was going to spend 19.5k USD to spend 25-38% more for 25-50 more points ...

the added benefit would be potentially happier DVC customers in the long run as they have sufficient points to book ...

points	deluxe studio standard	deluxe studio preferred
125​	6 days +10h 40m 58s​	5 days +4h 55m 43s​
150​	7 days +17h 37m 9s​	6 days +5h 54m 51s​

at RVA for 2021 on average

.... which aligns with what is already recommend ...
View attachment 520351
https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/membership/costs/

18% (~0.6k) of member add-on purchases (6% of all sales) were between 100 and 124 points (11% buy exactly 100 points) but not all of these folks would be enticed by blue card benefits as they may already have other direct points or survived this long without them (if resale buyers)

@i<3riviera, answering questions nobody asked since Mar 2020

I actually was wondering this exact thing so thank you.
I’m kind of assuming they’ll just increase the minimum purchase for RIV/AUL/CCV (if it remains in active sale), period.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

There is an upward trend in the number of points needed for a studio. If you purchase 125 points at Riviera, you can barely afford a week in a tower studio or deluxe studio. And most seasons, you can't even do that. So those purchasers will be using their points to stay at cheaper resorts. I'm speaking from experience because my first contract was 150 points at VGF. That isn't enough to stay at my home resort every year, so I stayed at other resorts. Most of the time I stayed at AKL. If you look at the point difference, my 150 points will only allow me 7 nights in standard studio in June (actually 3 points shy), but I can use those same points to stay 11 nights at a standard AKL studio. See the problem??

But you can't use those RIV or VGF (or wherever) points for AKL until the 7 month mark. So owners at "cheaper" resorts only have to worry about "competition" from those non-home reservations (regardless of whether the reason is high point cost of their home resort, or just want to try out staying somewhere else) unless they wait until the 7 month mark to make their reservation.

Where I see a problem is: owners of small contracts at more "expensive" resorts might be locked out from getting a cheaper non-home resort at 7 months due to limited availability and if they don't have enough points to stay at their home resort, they're kind of SOL.

 

[LTJoeFlo]

31% (~1.7k) of new member RVA direct purchases were between 100 and 124 points; 25% buy exactly 100 points

so that's 31% (20% of all sales) of new member RVA direct customers that may well be given incentive to buy an additional up-to 25% more points to qualify for a blue card in the future (assuming the rumor is true)

but why stop there? for new members at RVA (with current incentives) ...

100 points = 19.5k USD​

125 points = 24.4k USD (+4.9k USD)​

150 points = 27.0k USD (+2.6k USD)​

if you're going to buy-up to blue card level, you might as well spend ~half the upgrade from 125 points to get to 150 points, right?! those additional 25 points (from 125 points) come at only 105 USD per incremental point; talk about a low-low price no-brainer, eh?! just sign here ...

now you've just convinced someone that was going to spend 19.5k USD to spend 25-38% more for 25-50 more points ...

the added benefit would be potentially happier DVC customers in the long run as they have sufficient points to book ...

points	deluxe studio standard	deluxe studio preferred
125​	6 days +10h 40m 58s​	5 days +4h 55m 43s​
150​	7 days +17h 37m 9s​	6 days +5h 54m 51s​

at RVA for 2021 on average

.... which aligns with what is already recommend ...
View attachment 520351
https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/membership/costs/

18% (~0.6k) of member add-on purchases (6% of all sales) were between 100 and 124 points (11% buy exactly 100 points) but not all of these folks would be enticed by blue card benefits as they may already have other direct points or survived this long without them (if resale buyers)

@i<3riviera, answering questions nobody asked since Mar 2020

This is really epic stuff. I now challenge you to provide the same information, but for PVB and CCV. With very basic math, it would seem that nearly a third of RIV owners are restricted to half the rooms (studios and tower studios) unless they plan on going every three years. Has this always been the case?

But you can't use those RIV or VGF (or wherever) points for AKL until the 7 month mark. So owners at "cheaper" resorts only have to worry about "competition" from those non-home reservations (regardless of whether the reason is high point cost of their home resort, or just want to try out staying somewhere else) unless they wait until the 7 month mark to make their reservation.

Where I see a problem is: owners of small contracts at more "expensive" resorts might be locked out from getting a cheaper non-home resort at 7 months due to limited availability and if they don't have enough points to stay at their home resort, they're kind of SOL.

Yeah, I think I was trying to make your second point but with a poor analogy. I think booking at 11 months out is a primary tenet of DVC membership. I used to not have that luxury and was always limited in options. Now we go during "unpopular" times, stay in 2BR, and can book 11 months out. The World is our oyster

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

This is really epic stuff. I now challenge you to provide the same information, but for PVB and CCV. With very basic math, it would seem that nearly a third of RIV owners are restricted to half the rooms (studios and tower studios) unless they plan on going every three years. Has this always been the case?

I've gotta think that something like 95% of PVB owners can't afford a week in the bungalows. Especially now with the 50% point borrowing restriction.

 

[Memorymakerfor4]

It took me a while to read this entire thread, so I might have missed something. With a higher minimum direct requirement, I've heard it makes booking easier for everyone, as there are fewer owners overall to compete with. My question is does this actually happen? I'm thinking it could lessen strain on studios as some decide to just stay in a 1 br. But how many others would just try to book more nights in a studio? Unless studios were restricted to 3 people, pushing parties of 4 to one bedrooms, I don't see availability changing much.

Now I understand there are other reasons for Disney to raise the minimum. I was thinking from an owner's POV.

 

[LTJoeFlo]

I've gotta think that something like 95% of PVB owners can't afford a week in the bungalows. Especially now with the 50% point borrowing restriction.

That is precisely why I asked. And because of the cabins at CCV. I'm in the camp that believes those rooms put a strain on the rest of the resort. But I have no evidence to back this up.

It took me a while to read this entire thread, so I might have missed something. With a higher minimum direct requirement, I've heard it makes booking easier for everyone, as there are fewer owners overall to compete with. My question is does this actually happen? I'm thinking it could lessen strain on studios as some decide to just stay in a 1 br. But how many others would just try to book more nights in a studio? Unless studios were restricted to 3 people, pushing parties of 4 to one bedrooms, I don't see availability changing much.

Now I understand there are other reasons for Disney to raise the minimum. I was thinking from an owner's POV.

In theory, I believe this to be the case. But, it is very hard to determine without knowing what existing reservation behaviors are. DVC has this information and they might have allocated room sizes based on current behaviors. If you change the average purchasing power of members, could this create issues in other room types? Would people start booking multiple studios rather than 2BRs? Empirically, I have noticed that I have much greater flexibility with my most recent contract.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[EM Lawrence]

As far as I know, there has been no word that they are raising the minimum buy in to 125 points, just the minimum to qualify for blue card memberships. For the average pixie-dusted, uninformed buyer, those may seem like one and the same. But they are not.

 

[MouseyMin]

It seems to me that it's not a great time to increase the Blue Card minimum as presently the most sort-after DVC perks are not available to anyone. No APs being sold and Moonlight Magic has been cancelled. And it's not clear if or when these perks might be reinstated.

 

[jarestel]

It seems to me that it's not a great time to increase the Blue Card minimum as presently the most sort-after DVC perks are not available to anyone. No APs being sold and Moonlight Magic has been cancelled. And it's not clear if or when these perks might be reinstated.

You are certainly correct if you only consider those few things. OTOH, price discounts at the current time are quite attractive, at least for the newer resorts. I would expect the discounts to decrease once things return to a semblance of normal so some potential purchasers might decide to buy now at a good discount and limited perks rather than wait and buy at a higher price with better perks at some point in the future. I guess it all boils down to "pay me now or pay me later"!

 

[jphilips]

Following

 

[Dean]

It seems to me that it's not a great time to increase the Blue Card minimum as presently the most sort-after DVC perks are not available to anyone. No APs being sold and Moonlight Magic has been cancelled. And it's not clear if or when these perks might be reinstated.

Those perks were never guaranteed and one should not buy retail with them as the main goal right now unless the purchase makes sense otherwise. IMO the only perk that makes sense $$$ wise is the pass discount and previous to the current issues, I felt that one needed to recoup any difference in just a few years for retail to be feasible over resale. Personally I'd be willing to assume the discounts, or a comparable replacement, would be available within a couple of years but in my world that'd mean I'd need to recoup the difference ultimately within about 3 years. As I mentioned previously, I think they are looking at the long term and we should be also.

 

[chehan]

Here's just a bit of speculation about the blue card minimum point increase - As many have previously stated, it doesn't make sense for them to increase right now especially with blue card bennies as they are. Someone mentioned earlier that their guide was excited about what's coming around the corner for DVC members. That got me to thinking...

We all know the fast pass program is currently not available. I assumed it had something to due with reduced crowd sizes during covid. However, what if Disney is in the process of eliminating that program altogether with the plan to replace it with a paid front of the line access system like they have in Shanghai (read about it here: https://www.shanghaidisneyresort.com/en/guest-services/disney-premier-access/) ?

If this were the case, DVC blue card members could be automatically given priority access for rides/shows. Hear me out...UO has been selling front of the line access for years (https://www.universalorlando.com/web/en/us/tickets-packages/express-passes). UO also uses front of the line access as a "free" perk of guests staying onsite at RPR, Hard Rock, and Portofino whereby they receive this benefit automatically using a room key. Disney has offered free front of the line access (fastpass+) to every ticket holder. If Disney is going to start selling front of the line at every park worldwide, complimentary front of the line access could be included with a blue card DVC membership. I don't know about you, but I would totally buy direct just to have front of the line. Now THAT would be an exciting perk!

 

[lovethesun12]

Here's just a bit of speculation about the blue card minimum point increase - As many have previously stated, it doesn't make sense for them to increase right now especially with blue card bennies as they are. Someone mentioned earlier that their guide was excited about what's coming around the corner for DVC members. That got me to thinking...

We all know the fast pass program is currently not available. I assumed it had something to due with reduced crowd sizes during covid. However, what if Disney is in the process of eliminating that program altogether with the plan to replace it with a paid front of the line access system like they have in Shanghai (read about it here: https://www.shanghaidisneyresort.com/en/guest-services/disney-premier-access/) ?

If this were the case, DVC blue card members could be automatically given priority access for rides/shows. Hear me out...UO has been selling front of the line access for years (https://www.universalorlando.com/web/en/us/tickets-packages/express-passes). UO also uses front of the line access as a "free" perk of guests staying onsite at RPR, Hard Rock, and Portofino whereby they receive this benefit automatically using a room key. Disney has offered free front of the line access (fastpass+) to every ticket holder. If Disney is going to start selling front of the line at every park worldwide, complimentary front of the line access could be included with a blue card DVC membership. I don't know about you, but I would totally buy direct just to have front of the line. Now THAT would be an exciting perk!

There is another thread about this, and I mentioned the same thing. In my opinion it's basically the only thing that could significantly increase the value of purchasing direct (especially with large families) with minimal to no cost to Disney, assuming their plan is paid FP+ anyway.

That said I'm not about to run out and purchase direct over this since even if this did happen perks aren't guaranteed, and this type of thing is constantly changing. But it would definitely be something much more intriguing than what is currently offered.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

If this were the case, DVC blue card members could be automatically given priority access for rides/shows. Hear me out...UO has been selling front of the line access for years (https://www.universalorlando.com/web/en/us/tickets-packages/express-passes). UO also uses front of the line access as a "free" perk of guests staying onsite at RPR, Hard Rock, and Portofino whereby they receive this benefit automatically using a room key. Disney has offered free front of the line access (fastpass+) to every ticket holder. If Disney is going to start selling front of the line at every park worldwide, complimentary front of the line access could be included with a blue card DVC membership. I don't know about you, but I would totally buy direct just to have front of the line. Now THAT would be an exciting perk!

We booked a night at RPR when we visited Universal to get two days Express Pass. It was a great system and the lines were ridiculously short using it.

If Disney goes this route I could see them giving access to the lower-mid tier rides to all onsite guests but I doubt they'll give DVC members something better than the cash side.