ROFR Thread July to Sept 2025 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Brian Noble]

I am surprised Disney isn't taking this to try to pump up the value.

Disney does not care about the resale value of RIV. If they did, it would not have been restricted.

 

[momtwoboys]

hope to hear soon! This wait is never easy.

 

[mauionabreakaway]

Disney does not care about the resale value of RIV. If they did, it would not have been restricted.

Oh, they definitely care, they just seem to think the restrictions are making them more than they're risking by hurting the resale value of the resort, it's a new(ish) strategy for them. There's no way the bean counters haven't calculated a price that they're willing to let it drop to though, I'm just surprised it's apparently lower than the current price. Though it sounds like it's working out for them from all the people "reluctantly" buying direct. Hell I haven't even gotten past RoFR on my first contract ever and I'm already considering direct points "in the future". Time will tell.

 

[Brian Noble]

Oh, they definitely care

Why do you think this is true?

(Narrator: "It was not true.")

 

[mauionabreakaway]

Why do you think this is true?

(Narrator: "It was not true.")

Because it's a business venture for them, there's no way they aren't carefully tracking the values, the whole RoFR mechanism is one of the levers Disney has to set a floor on contract value. It's commonly cited that the RoFR letting them keep values up is what makes DVC distinct from more traditional timeshares. The other lever they have to pull is the resale restrictions being applied here, clearly they're focusing more on discouraging resale in favor of direct sales at the moment, and I understand why, however it seems very unlikely they don't have some minimum value they don't want to let it drop below, which could also hurt direct sales if it gets too low. This is just my thought though, I have no actual knowledge, just musings.

 

[jason423]

Because it's a business venture for them, there's no way they aren't carefully tracking the values, the whole RoFR mechanism is one of the levers Disney has to set a floor on contract value. It's commonly cited that the RoFR letting them keep values up is what makes DVC distinct from more traditional timeshares. The other lever they have to pull is the resale restrictions being applied here, clearly they're focusing more on discouraging resale in favor of direct sales at the moment, and I understand why, however it seems very unlikely they don't have some minimum value they don't want to let it drop below, which could also hurt direct sales if it gets too low. This is just my thought though, I have no actual knowledge, just musings.

Im not sure they really care. The restrictions they have in place make the resale product dramatically different than what they sell direct. My assumption would be a very high percentage of resale buyers at Riv would have no interest in direct and buying back right now serves no purpose for disney since they have points to sell.

 

[foodiddiedoo]

@MyDogTink did you have your closing yet?

 

[MyDogTink]

@MyDogTink did you have your closing yet?

Hi. On July 9th, the escrow agent said he’d have it closed in 2-3 days. I keep
Look at the comptrollers website but I don’t see the recorded deed. In the past, I’ve seen the recorded deed before the title company emails with the closing package.

What’s going on with your contract?

 

[Sandisw]

Oh, they definitely care, they just seem to think the restrictions are making them more than they're risking by hurting the resale value of the resort, it's a new(ish) strategy for them. There's no way the bean counters haven't calculated a price that they're willing to let it drop to though, I'm just surprised it's apparently lower than the current price. Though it sounds like it's working out for them from all the people "reluctantly" buying direct. Hell I haven't even gotten past RoFR on my first contract ever and I'm already considering direct points "in the future". Time will tell.

Well, they added them to both VDH and CFW so I think this is the long game right now.

 

[foodiddiedoo]

Hi. On July 9th, the escrow agent said he’d have it closed in 2-3 days. I keep
Look at the comptrollers website but I don’t see the recorded deed. In the past, I’ve seen the recorded deed before the title company emails with the closing package.

What’s going on with your contract?

Still haven't heard anything since Thursday as to whether my sellers did the closing documents. Hopefully I hear on Monday!

 

[mkst]

mkst---$133-$7536-50-CCV@WL-Sep-0/23, 0/24, 0/25, 50/26- sent 6/30

 

[Brian Noble]

It's commonly cited that the RoFR letting them keep values up is what makes DVC distinct from more traditional timeshares.

Lots of people say this. In my opinion, they are wrong. It is a way people give themselves permission to do the thing they want to do anyway, and if resale value were not there, they'd find some other rationalization.

First, there is resale value because there are people willing to buy DVC on the resale market, and enough of them that those who wish to sell on the resale market see some residual value. That's because Disney has a pixie-dust-fueld brand, and the DVC resorts are the only way* to directly experience that via timeshare. If the demand were to go down significantly---or, equivalently, the supply were to go up---we'd see a decrease in price. Disney will not ROFR forever, (at least in part because ROFR is not a source of "cheap" inventory), and there will be a new, lower, equilibrium price. When resale prices dropped (by a lot) in the Great Recession, Disney stopped ROFR'ing more or less cold. They barely have been doing it now outside a few very specific resorts, despite the fact that prices continue to slip.

Second: DVC is in the business of selling timeshares. The existence of a robust resale market may make a difference on the margin, but it does not make or break the business model. I know this because Marriott is able to sell timeshares--and lots of them--at prices comparable to (or higher than) Disney, with a resale market that is at best 25% of sticker. And, from what I understand, this is dropping. Wyndham is able to sell full-freight timeshares despite the fact that their resale value is 10%, at best, and more likely zip, zero, zilch, nada.

Almost no one on the sales floor is thinking about selling. They are thinking of bottling this magical feeling "at today's prices" for decades to come.

-----------------------
*: There is another much less expensvie way, if one is content with mostly getting the leftovers after DVC Members take their pick. Long story.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Lots of people say this. In my opinion, they are wrong. It is a way people give themselves permission to do the thing they want to do anyway, and if resale value were not there, they'd find some other rationalization.

First, there is resale value because there are peole willing to buy DVC on the resale market, and enough of them that those who wish to sell on the resale market see some residual value. That's because Disney has a pixie-dust-fueld brand, and the DVC resorts are the only way* to directly experience that via timeshare. If the demand were to go down significantly---or, equivalently, the supply were to go up---we'd see a decrease in price. Disney will not ROFR forever, (at least in part because ROFR is not a source of "cheap" inventory), and there will be a new, lower, equilibrium price. When resale prices dropped (by a lot) in the Great Recession, Disney stopped ROFR'ing more or less cold. They barely have been doing it now outside a few very specific resorts, despite the fact that prices continue to slip.

I agree with Brian that there is not good evidence ROFR is the determining factor in holding up resale prices. BCV hasn’t been ROFR’d in years, but it’s currently holding up better than many properties which have. Similar story with BWV.

I do think Poly and VGF both got a nudge from ROFR (with Disney seemingly making an effort to get PVB closer to the prices they wanted to move direct points at) but that appears to be the exception more than the rule and prices have already trended about half-way back to where they were before the PVB ROFR flurry.

 

[Mouseforward]

I agree with Brian that there is not good evidence ROFR is the determining factor in holding up resale prices. BCV hasn’t been ROFR’d in years, but it’s currently holding up better than many properties which have. Similar story with BWV.

I do think Poly and VGF both got a nudge from ROFR (with Disney seemingly making an effort to get PVB closer to the prices they wanted to move direct points at) but that appears to be the exception more than the rule and prices have already trended about half-way back to where they were before the PVB ROFR flurry.

I feel like the ROFR strategy is resort dependent.

I understand ROFR on OKW if they run low because they can improve the value and duration and they sell a consistent trickle direct.

SSR and AK get taken, then sold as a step down like the SSR "deal" now

VGC and VGF are the two that they do seem to ROFR to prop up.

They have given up on 2042 resorts - I think one was taken in the past 3 years.

 

[mauionabreakaway]

Well, they added them to both VDH and CFW so I think this is the long game right now.

Perhaps, they're definitely still pressuring buyers to go direct instead of resale, but they have to know that if the resale value tanks too far than the sales might further slow. Conversely, letting the price drop and not picking up Riviera contracts could simply be a matter of them not wanting inventory on the books when it's not selling at the pace they want, which could be overriding their preference to keep the value up. All I'm saying is that I don't believe they don't care about the resale price, though I would agree it's not their primary concern at the moment, I doubt it's not a factor in their overall strategy.

Lots of people say this. In my opinion, they are wrong. It is a way people give themselves permission to do the thing they want to do anyway, and if resale value were not there, they'd find some other rationalization.

First, there is resale value because there are people willing to buy DVC on the resale market, and enough of them that those who wish to sell on the resale market see some residual value. That's because Disney has a pixie-dust-fueld brand, and the DVC resorts are the only way* to directly experience that via timeshare. If the demand were to go down significantly---or, equivalently, the supply were to go up---we'd see a decrease in price. Disney will not ROFR forever, (at least in part because ROFR is not a source of "cheap" inventory), and there will be a new, lower, equilibrium price. When resale prices dropped (by a lot) in the Great Recession, Disney stopped ROFR'ing more or less cold. They barely have been doing it now outside a few very specific resorts, despite the fact that prices continue to slip.

Second: DVC is in the business of selling timeshares. The existence of a robust resale market may make a difference on the margin, but it does not make or break the business model. I know this because Marriott is able to sell timeshares--and lots of them--at prices comparable to (or higher than) Disney, with a resale market that is at best 25% of sticker. And, from what I understand, this is dropping. Wyndham is able to sell full-freight timeshares despite the fact that their resale value is 10%, at best, and more likely zip, zero, zilch, nada.

Almost no one on the sales floor is thinking about selling. They are thinking of bottling this magical feeling "at today's prices" for decades to come.

-----------------------
*: There is another much less expensvie way, if one is content with mostly getting the leftovers after DVC Members take their pick. Long story.

Supply and demand are market forces and will dominate the pricing of the resorts, no argument there, but Disney absolute has mechanisms in place to influence it. They can (and are) using restrictions and incentives for direct members to weaken the demand for resale, making it less appealing. They could also use RoFR to prop up the resale price while pushing demand down to really kill that market, and they aren't. That's what I'm surprised by, like I wrote earlier in this post I suspect they're more worried about being stuck with inventory that's not moving well, and that's why they're letting the average price drop, but I am sure they're tracking it and weighing it against all the factors.

I agree with Brian that there is not good evidence ROFR is the determining factor in holding up resale prices. BCV hasn’t been ROFR’d in years, but it’s currently holding up better than many properties which have. Similar story with BWV.

I do think Poly and VGF both got a nudge from ROFR (with Disney seemingly making an effort to get PVB closer to the prices they wanted to move direct points at) but that appears to be the exception more than the rule and prices have already trended about half-way back to where they were before the PVB ROFR flurry.

It's not the determining factor at the moment because Disney hasn't engaged it as such, but that doesn't mean they don't care about the resale value, that's all I'm saying. I'm sure there's a big picture and a bunch of spreadsheets and analytics that factor it in alongside a number of other things. If Riviera inventory was moving better I'd bet you'd see them using RoFR to push the prices up, but since it's not, maybe they're not ready to pull that lever, but the idea that they don't care about it doesn't make sense. This is the current compromise they've chosen, that's all.

I feel like the ROFR strategy is resort dependent.

I understand ROFR on OKW if they run low because they can improve the value and duration and they sell a consistent trickle direct.

SSR and AK get taken, then sold as a step down like the SSR "deal" now

VGC and VGF are the two that they do seem to ROFR to prop up.

They have given up on 2042 resorts - I think one was taken in the past 3 years.

Oh totally agree, the strategy is definitely resort dependent. Right now the strategy for Riviera seems to be to get rid of the inventory for it and try to get as much as they can for it now. As @Sandisw pointed out, they kept up with the restrictions so they must feel like this strategy is broadly working for them. Time will tell.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I agree with Brian that there is not good evidence ROFR is the determining factor in holding up resale prices. BCV hasn’t been ROFR’d in years, but it’s currently holding up better than many properties which have. Similar story with BWV.

I do think Poly and VGF both got a nudge from ROFR (with Disney seemingly making an effort to get PVB closer to the prices they wanted to move direct points at) but that appears to be the exception more than the rule and prices have already trended about half-way back to where they were before the PVB ROFR flurry.

You don’t think ROFR has put a bit of a floor on VGC and VGF bids?

 

[samsp99]

You don’t think ROFR has put a bit of a floor on VGC and VGF bids?

I don't think they are using ROFR to manipulate prices, they are using it to obtain inventory that they can sell. They probably keep a small pool for each resort, and then use ROFR to top it up.
They probably have price floor formula for each resorts that they will take contracts at - probably more related to their ability to profit rather than as a market manipulation mechanism.

I think the prices for VGF and VGC are what they are due to supply and demand. There are people who only want to buy DVC from Disney, don't know about the resale market, or are afraid of the "risk" of using the resale market.

VGF is the flagship property at WDW - there will always be people wanting to buy there
VGC is IMHO the best property at DL - and the availablility is low, so Disney can probably sell any contracts they ROFR with ease. It doesn't have the per-night tax of the new DL property and so is also more attractive from that perspective.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I don't think they are using ROFR to manipulate prices, they are using it to obtain inventory that they can sell. They probably keep a small pool for each resort, and then use ROFR to top it up.
They probably have price floor formula for each resorts that they will take contracts at - probably more related to their ability to profit rather than as a market manipulation mechanism.

I think the prices for VGF and VGC are what they are due to supply and demand. There are people who only want to buy DVC from Disney, don't know about the resale market, or are afraid of the "risk" of using the resale market.

VGF is the flagship property at WDW - there will always be people wanting to buy there
VGC is IMHO the best property at DL - and the availablility is low, so Disney can probably sell any contracts they ROFR with ease. It doesn't have the per-night tax of the new DL property and so is also more attractive from that perspective.

I’m not sure where you read anything in my statement that indicated I believed Disney was trying to manipulate resale prices.

@HyperspaceMountainPilot wrote that “there is not good evidence ROFR is the determining factor in holding up resale prices”.

My response was an inquiry into if she believe’s Disney’s decision to ROFR those resorts has put a floor on their prices.

I would argue that both VGF and VGC are higher based on ROFR activity this year then they otherwise would have been and I believe that there is evidence to support that.

I own both and am very well aware of there supply and demand dynamics.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

You don’t think ROFR has put a bit of a floor on VGC and VGF bids?

I don’t have a very strongly held view, but my overall feeling is that it hasn’t has much impact, however I did acknowledge that VGF got a nudge…but do I think that people would have started dumping VGF into the 130s absent ROFR? Not really, because the price seems seems to be in roughly the same range for the past year (I think?) even with very minimal ROFR.

VGC, I’m more torn about— it wasn’t really declining much before the spurt of ROFR, I think it was more about demand for direct they were having an easy time flipping for 30% profit, but I can imagine that there are a lot of people who wouldn’t want VDH direct for the same price they could get VGC resale, so maybe Disney was motivated to nudge VGC to stay consistently above $225? I don’t know though because they weren’t really ROFRing VGC in 2023 and 2024 when it was periodically being sold close to $210/pt, and it bounced back up on its own, IIRC?

 

[AstroBlasters]

I don’t have a very strongly held view, but my overall feeling is that it hasn’t has much impact, however I did acknowledge that VGF got a nudge…but do I think that people would have started dumping VGF into the 130s absent ROFR? Not really, because the price seems seems to be in roughly the same range for the past year (I think?) even with very minimal ROFR.

VGC, I’m more torn about— it wasn’t really declining much before the spurt of ROFR, I think it was more about demand for direct they were having an easy time flipping for 30% profit, but I can imagine that there are a lot of people who wouldn’t want VDH direct for the same price they could get VGC resale, so maybe Disney was motivated to nudge VGC to stay consistently above $225? I don’t know though because they weren’t really ROFRing VGC in 2023 and 2024 when it was periodically being sold close to $210/pt, and it bounced back up on its own, IIRC?

I’m not saying Disney is proactively ROFRing to impact the resale price, I’m just saying that when a resort is in the ROFR crosshairs that it is likely to go up in value on the resale market.

I also remember being told that Disney would not ROFR VGC even though some of us argued that it was crazy for them NOT to. Blind monkeys is what the ROFR team was called…. Turns out that being able to make a $100pp spread is pretty good business….