ROFR Thread July to Sept 2023 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[AwfulWaffle]

Yup I was stationed there for three years and as long as you stay away from Wakaiki you are good. Lots of love for the island but we still had our share of land hops as well.

 

[gskywalker]

Ugh, my wife's addonitis had me keeping an eye out and I put in an offer this morning. Killer is it is on fidelityrealestate.com and they don't answer on the weekend. I expect someone else will pay more than I will but hey I have had about 15 other contracts, I thought the same about, that ended up being accepted.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Ugh, my wife's addonitis had me keeping an eye out and I put in an offer this morning. Killer is it is on fidelityrealestate.com and they don't answer on the weekend. I expect someone else will pay more than I will but hey I have had about 15 other contracts, I thought the same about, that ended up being accepted.

You have more than 15 contracts?

 

[DonMacGregor]

You have more than 15 contracts?

I have 13. Is that bad?

 

[gskywalker]

You have more than 15 contracts?

No I have had 15 contacts accepted, disney took 12 of them.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I have 13. Is that bad?

No judgment from me. I went from 0-4 since January, so at this trajectory I’ll be at 20 by the end of the decade.

 

[jjanne]

I have 13. Is that bad?

oh wow, that's impressive. how many use years?

 

[DonMacGregor]

oh wow, that's impressive. how many use years?

2. All of my WDW contracts are Feb, and all of my Aulani are Dec. The majority of them are small contracts.

 

[MsChristy12]

BLT contracts are consistently in the $130"s with a few under 130 and over 139. The average so far this month is $135. This is for contracts of 150 to 200 points.

I'm still over the moon that I snagged our 50pt BLT before it started trending down! Even though it doesn't match our other contract's UY, still very happy about it!

 

[TheDailyMoo]

No problem. I enjoy it as long as I keep in from getting overwhelming.

I will do a new spreadsheet for October with this information. I will do 5 resorts. AKV, BLT, CCV, POLY and Riv. I want to limit it to contracts with 100-300 points since I believe those are the most common sized contracts and reflect the market more accurately than small or extremely large contracts. It also makes doing this easier.

Let me know if you feel there is any other data you think is valuable to enter.

			OCTOBER RESALES	100-300 POINTS
TOTAL COST	POINTS	USE YEAR	PRICE PER POINT	CONTRACT DATE	TITLE COMPANY	RESORT	RECORDED DATE

So you just go to the Orange County website to look up the deeds and all the info is there pretty easy to access?

 

[tom1944]

I'm still over the moon that I snagged our 50pt BLT before it started trending down! Even though it doesn't match our other contract's UY, still very happy about it!

I have not been tracking 50 point contracts but I would bet they are not the same price as those above 150.

 

[tom1944]

So you just go to the Orange County website to look up the deeds and all the info is there pretty easy to access?

Yes

The new system has some technical issues I don’t like but the old system is still available to use

With the old system you can cull out gratuitous transfers and foreclosures but I have not been able to do that with the new system.

 

[MsChristy12]

I have not been tracking 50 point contracts but I would bet they are not the same price as those above 150.

Nope definitely not, but I got lucky and stalked the brokers site multiple times daily and it paid off! Ours was listed for $150, I offered $140 and seller accepted and didn't counter. There are very few 50pts contracts in the market now and the cheapest ones are still in the $160s, so I definitely got a good deal! Originally, I was going to wait until an April UY come by so I can match our other contract, but nope I literally felt that it wasn't gonna happen so I just went with Feb, which is BLT most designated UY. It's only 2 months off so we'll see if that works for us. I figured I can always sell it if the different UY really doesn't work out for us.

 

[emchen]

Holy cow! Congrats!

Anybody have theories as to why Disney is suddenly pedal to the metal on approving ROFRs? I’m a perennial pessimist, but it makes me think they are worried the market might collapse and want to get resales closed ASAP.

Looking at these recent great deals, I would say pricing is definitely headed in that direction.

Preview of VDH resale in 3 years?

No way. See below.

I would’ve thought that as well until my recent visit this month (that Disney would need another gate). I can say, without any doubt whatsoever at all, the appetite for luxury accommodations at DLR is high. With all the little motels surrounding the resort, the need for deluxe options is significant. No need to build another gate there. I mean it’s needed, don’t get me wrong, but financially, there’s no need to build more to make VDH more valuable. It’s highly valuable and now I understand why they’re not offering great incentives.

I’ll be the first to admit I was extremely disappointed by the renderings and offerings. I wanted to love it so much, yet didn’t. My visit changed my mind completely. Didn’t expect it at all. I will be buying VDH direct in the next few years. Was considering buying the same day as my visit, but decided to wait for better incentives.

I wholeheartedly agree that VDH will be more popular than RIV if pricing of the two is similar. Note that I don’t like RIV so take that view FWIW.

IMHO, VDH’s popularity, location, low point chart, amenities & more will set the platform for it to increase in value every year. I do think it’ll be on par like GCV as far as availability difficulty @ 7m. And forget about booking a duo studio if you’re not an owner there. Apart from my personal love of the resort, I believe it’ll skyrocket in value once it’s sold out. I’ll not be having FOMO on this one…count on that!

Adding the VDH banner in……

I think this is a pattern that we will see with Poly2 as well...people changing their opinions after seeing the completed project. Re your view on RIV, have you seen it in person or stayed there? Just curious.

Here are the current contracts between 150-200 points. February is the most common use year.
150= 10
160= 69
175=2
190=2
193=1
200=28

total 112

In my best Bill-and-Ted voice: Sixty-nine!

Ugh, my wife's addonitis had me keeping an eye out and I put in an offer this morning. Killer is it is on fidelityrealestate.com and they don't answer on the weekend. I expect someone else will pay more than I will but hey I have had about 15 other contracts, I thought the same about, that ended up being accepted.

Sure, "my wife's addonitis", I tell myself the same ...9 direct contracts later just this year (VGF=1, RIV=2, VDH=6). The vast majority are small ones. Curse "my wife's addonitis"!!! .

ETA: do I count the resale AUL contract that closes in Feb 2024? hmmmm

 

[sndral]

So you just go to the Orange County website to look up the deeds and all the info is there pretty easy to access?

Yes

The new system has some technical issues I don’t like but the old system is still available to use

With the old system you can cull out gratuitous transfers and foreclosures but I have not been able to do that with the new system.

I assume you still have to do a little math to get the price per point based on the deed document tax?
I like the data because you see what has actually sold at what price across all the brokers v. the subset of data based on only their sales that a couple of brokers have on their websites.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

The new system has some technical issues I don’t like but the old system is still available to use

Sorry to be a pain by asking but the new system is the default one when searching for deeds on the comptrollers site? I notice when you click on tax deed there seems to be a more archaic looking screen. Where do you input the resort name? I just see Grantor and grantee that accepts name searches. I did look up my own for reference and noticed the doc deed tax is close to the per point paid but not exact. Wondering if there's a method to this madness.

 

[tom1944]

I assume you still have to do a little math to get the price per point based on the deed document tax?
I like the data because you see what has actually sold at what price across all the brokers v. the subset of data based on only their sales that a couple of brokers have on their websites.

Only have to do that when Cammy Smith is the title agent. All the other title companies list the sales price.

The new system does not seem to allow you to enter deed doc tax data in your search. At least not as far as I have been able to successfully do it.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Looking at these recent great deals, I would say pricing is definitely headed in that direction.

No way. See below.

I think this is a pattern that we will see with Poly2 as well...people changing their opinions after seeing the completed project. Re your view on RIV, have you seen it in person or stayed there? Just curious.

In my best Bill-and-Ted voice: Sixty-nine!

Sure, "my wife's addonitis", I tell myself the same ...9 direct contracts later just this year (VGF=1, RIV=2, VDH=6). The vast majority are small ones. Curse "my wife's addonitis"!!! .

ETA: do I count the resale AUL contract that closes in Feb 2024? hmmmm

FWIW, I don’t personally see a major collapse coming, I think there could be a continued slide down (especially at the less conveniently located/harder to rent resorts) but honestly expect that unless there’s a major economic catastrophe, that they won’t go down too much more before inflation starts to help them drift higher.

For the WDW resorts, it’s also going going to depend if DVD runs additional promotions like they did for VGF this year. If they have to slash pricing on VGF or Poly or RIV even lower than $160 (which I don’t currently see them doing), that would further put pressure on the resale contracts priced above about $130.

 

[tom1944]

Sorry to be a pain by asking but the new system is the default one when searching for deeds on the comptrollers site? I notice when you click on tax deed there seems to be a more archaic looking screen. Where do you input the resort name? I just see Grantor and grantee that accepts name searches. I did look up my own for reference and noticed the doc deed tax is close to the per point paid but not exact. Wondering if there's a method to this madness.

If you divide the deed tax by .007 you get the contract price

On the advanced search I use the legal remarks box

 

[TheDailyMoo]

If you divide the deed tax by .007 you get the contract price

On the advanced search I use the legal remarks box

You're a good guy for doing this because it seems tedious from the little research I've currently done! I managed to bring up the deeds to let's say BWV and only clicking on person to person transfers and looking at the deeds. I thought the deeds would list points and per point cost but apparently not! So I see the contract prices but again not seeing how to find out how many points. It's fine by the way I appreciate the tutorial until this point but it was more curiosity than anything else.

One thing I'm noticing just by my real quick searches is that there seems to be a lot more company grantees than I thought there would be. Must be lucrative to rent out points. No wonder there's so much walking of reservations going on!

Edit: Ok I'm kinda seeing how this works a little more. Thanks again Tom for the tutorial!