ROFR Thread July to Sept 2022 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[NVDISFamily]

Borrowing restrictions are gone amigos. I wonder what that will do for the market of buyers and sellers. Seems like it will make some need less points and make the visit every three years plan viable.

 

[lovethesun12]

Borrowing restrictions are gone amigos. I wonder what that will do for the market of buyers and sellers. Seems like it will make some need less points and make the visit every three years plan viable.

Need less points? Does not compute.

 

[NVDISFamily]

Need less points? Does not compute.

The key word was SOME…. LOL

My addicted brain sees that 100 point CCV contract as now 300 points. I just have to get one right?……

 

[hglenn]

Borrowing restrictions are gone amigos. I wonder what that will do for the market of buyers and sellers. Seems like it will make some need less points and make the visit every three years plan viable.

I was thinking this likely indicates that the covid surplus has been mostly depleted and perhaps availability will become less cut-throat.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Borrowing restrictions are gone amigos. I wonder what that will do for the market of buyers and sellers. Seems like it will make some need less points and make the visit every three years plan viable.

I don’t think it does anything for the market. If anything, it might impact 7 month availability which might prompt some to buy into more expensive hard-to-book resorts like BCV? Just speculating.

 

[Arbogast]

Got ROFR'd on my AKL contract last night. $129/pt for 200 points, seller pays closing. No surprise. I think I'm done trying to get DVC with where the market seems to be heading.

 

[dado4]

Wish you luck and hope you get your VGC points! 265 a point for a almost fully double points 100 point contract is not a bad deal at all!

I have the sickness bad. I was already asking the wife if we should consider adding a 75 point CCV contract to our pile…. This hobby might bankrupt me

Same, I'm telling my wife how we can sell some contracts and get some others for only XX more dollars per point and it's a good deal. I pretty much sign my paychecks over to Disney!

 

[Red Dog Run]

New to the board...Canadian buyer (yay "international"?) trying to purchase in Animal Kingdom.
Think I have the string figured out:

BunnyhugSK---$130-$28600-220-AKV-Feb-88/21, 220/22, 220/23-Seller pays closing- sent 6/29

Not feeling too optimistic given all I have read latey...

I'm thinking you will pass. My vote is for.

 

[Red Dog Run]

They took mine at $135

Oh, if only this was last year at this time, you would have less worries.

 

[Leight19]

Got ROFR'd on my AKL contract last night. $129/pt for 200 points, seller pays closing. No surprise. I think I'm done trying to get DVC with where the market seems to be heading.

I want to add on but waiting as well because makes no sense to me how they can continue to buy back so much more then they are selling. It seems market is in weird place where Disney is buying back almost everything at some resorts which aren’t moving with recent direct price increases. I can’t see how this possibly is sustainable so hopefully better deals in future.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I want to add on but waiting as well because makes no sense to me how they can continue to buy back so much more then they are selling. It seems market is in weird place where Disney is buying back almost everything at some resorts which aren’t moving with recent direct price increases. I can’t see how this possibly is sustainable so hopefully better deals in future.

That is an interesting question/point. What are they gonna do with all of the points that they're buying back through active ROFR? I hope some awesome sales promotion down the road but sure can't fathom why the mass buyback of certain resorts.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

That is an interesting question/point. What are they gonna do with all of the points that they're buying back through active ROFR? I hope some awesome sales promotion down the road but sure can't fathom why the mass buyback of certain resorts.

Remember Disney can use those points for cash stays. Demand for the parks is off the charts. They are also still running their promo for 25% off cash stays for Disney+ members.

When looking at last quarter ROFR trend, using AKV as an example, all of the December UY contracts they took back had 2021 points on them.

The margins they make on this are incredibly high. If the demand for cash stays dips and they feel their inventory for sold out resort points is high, they do a fire sale similar to what we saw last year.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Remember Disney can use those points for cash stays. Demand for the parks is off the charts. They are also still running their promo for 25% off cash stays for Disney+ members.

When looking at last quarter ROFR trend, using AKV as an example, all of the December UY contracts they took back had 2021 points on them.

The margins they make on this are incredibly high. If the demand for cash stays dips and they feel their inventory for sold out resort points is high, they do a fire sale similar to what we saw last year.

True, but I saw a report showing that they bought back like 95,000 points at SSR, which would translate into $19M cash in their pocket. I can't imagine they want to sit on them for any length of time.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

True, but I saw a report showing that they bought back like 95,000 points at SSR, which would translate into $19M cash in their pocket. I can't imagine they want to sit on them for any length of time.

Can only be considered cash in their pocket if they think the demand is there at $200pp… which it doesn’t seem like it is. I look it at as a cash outlay for them of approx $11.5M (95,000 x $120ish pp) which get’s offset by income from cash stays. They can then recoup their capital with a fire sale if they can’t unload SSR at $200pp.

I’m not saying a fire sale is not coming… I’m just saying I don’t believe its coming anytime soon. They don’t need one. They have RIV and VGF to sell. Cash stay guests are typically non-members. Easier to sell too than savy existing members.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Can only be considered cash in their pocket if they think the demand is there at $200pp… which it doesn’t seem like it is. I look it at as a cash outlay for them of approx $11.5M (95,000 x $120ish pp) which get’s offset by income from cash stays. They can then recoup their capital with a fire sale if they can’t unload SSR at $200pp.

I’m not saying a fire sale is not coming… I’m just saying I don’t believe its coming anytime soon. They don’t need one. They have RIV and VGF to sell. Cash stay guests are typically non-members. Easier to sell too than savy existing members.

I don't disagree. Just struggling to see any upside to them loading up on SSR points for cash stays (understanding the guest capacity there is definitely appealing for redirecting from sold-out cash resorts), unless they think they'll need the cash inventory in a downturning economy.

 

[erinkristen04]

Day 32 and the ants in my pants are getting harder and harder to keep under control haha! But for real… I definitely didn’t expect to still be waiting on a decision for my international seller Poly contract 32 days later. Fingers crossed today is the day!

 

[Brian Noble]

What are they gonna do with all of the points that they're buying back through active ROFR?

It has definitely been a change in strategy over the last months. Satisfying skyrocketing resort-rental demand is a possibility, but this seems like a fair amount of risk to take on to get a few more hotel bookings, and it's not consistent with what they've done in the past. It isn't a "stock buy-back" because the market is at a peak not a trough.

There are other things I can think of (e.g. clearing the COVID backlog) but that is even less like the Mouse's past behavior.

And, even selling ROFR'd points at full price they'd be taking a hit vs. selling "new" inventory: rule of thumb in the industry is that cost-of-goods is about 1/4 to 1/3 of the total costs of selling timeshares. (Marketing is 40%-50%). They still have to market/pay guides/whatever to sell these points, so the margin is much lower. Fire-sales make that even worse, and potentially upside down.

 

[BeachClub2014]

It has definitely been a change in strategy over the last months. Satisfying skyrocketing resort-rental demand is a possibility, but this seems like a fair amount of risk to take on to get a few more hotel bookings, and it's not consistent with what they've done in the past. It isn't a "stock buy-back" because the market is at a peak not a trough.

There are other things I can think of (e.g. clearing the COVID backlog) but that is even less like the Mouse's past behavior.

And, even selling ROFR'd points at full price they'd be taking a hit vs. selling "new" inventory: rule of thumb in the industry is that cost-of-goods is about 1/4 to 1/3 of the total costs of selling timeshares. (Marketing is 40%-50%). They still have to market/pay guides/whatever to sell these points, so the margin is much lower. Fire-sales make that even worse, and potentially upside down.

Exactly. So, aside from some potential increase in renting out rooms for cash, what the heck are they gonna do with the points?

 

[Mrsjoneslilac]

I don't disagree. Just struggling to see any upside to them loading up on SSR points for cash stays (understanding the guest capacity there is definitely appealing for redirecting from sold-out cash resorts), unless they think they'll need the cash inventory in a downturning economy.

My fingers are crossed for an eventual skyliner to SSR. I doubt it, but you never know!

 

[Sunnyore]

Sunnyore---$170-$5157-25-BLT-Aug-0/21, 50/22, 25/23- sent 7/12

Tiny contracts are probably never a great deal but I figured not too terrible with the banked points. If Disney wants to take this one and pay the admin fee so be it. Also I was expecting a subpar experience with this brokerage from all the comments on here but my bid was presented to seller yesterday and contract sent to ROFR today so no complaints so far. Guess it's back to waiting....