ROFR Thread July to Sept 2020 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[poofyo101]

There is in my mind. They can't sell stripped contracts until next year or the year after. There is zero reason for Disney to dump capital in to something that far out under the current circumstances.

What they have done in the past is not directly correlated to things under the current circumstances in my mind.

They do usually have inventory on hand though so for saratoga and such they do not need to sell it ASAP

 

[Jacki518]

Jacki518---$132-$24440-170-BCV-Aug-340/19, 170/20, 170/21, 170/22- sent 4/30, passed 6/16

 

[Naglejen]

It's either a shot across the bow to keep people and brokers asking higher prices or, and I think this is the likely thing, people are taking advantage of direct incentives and they bought back points to satisfy that demand.

Can they then split those large point contracts up into smaller contracts? I know a lot of people thinking they should do a small add here or there...maybe it's to satisfy everyone's add on-itis.

 

[sethschroeder]

I am not sure if there would be a huge correlation between stripped of points or not. If I were disney I might try to snag up the contracts where seller was going to pay management fees regardless. That could add up to a few thousand dollars. And when you think about it, the difference of $94 per point vs $95 vs $96 is really only $200-$400-$400. I can't imagine disney is hurting for DVC rooms through the end of 2020 so surprising they bought some back. Maybe just a tactic to remind us that they can exercise the right? LOL

Except again they want points they can sell not be forced to have capital stuck in something they can't. If a seller pays the MFs with points in 2020 then that is a prime target possibly for Disney to buy then sell off.

Your points about the pricing is my point. Why buy a contract without 2020 points with "limited" capital when for an extra $100-$200-$300 you can get a contract you can turn around and sell. Especially when you know there will be a rush of people buying cheap points (OKW/SSR) next month to get direct membership before the minimum goes from 100 to 125 points.

They do usually have inventory on hand though so for saratoga and such they do not need to sell it ASAP

Correct but there is also a minimum point increase coming next month (most likely). If you have $1,000,000 to spend (typical might be 10x that) on DVC points in ROFR are you going to target a contract you are completely locked out of selling for 6-18 months or will you just pay a $1-$5 extra cost to grab the points so you can flip them sooner?

I just don't see the DVC ROFR team not having a more limited budget than normal on pulling contracts back. With the incentives on sold out resorts as well Disney is 100% looking to churn those old resorts and get people buying so they can ROFR more.

The 100 to 125 point increase is also possibly something Disney is stocking up for as last year a few resorts became waitlist when they were not waitlist prior to the increase from 75 to 100. (if I remember correctly)

Can they then split those large point contracts up into smaller contracts? I know a lot of people thinking they should do a small add here or there...

Yes they are now points they can divide up, move the month around on, add direct benefits too.

 

[poofyo101]

Except again they want points they can sell not be forced to have capital stuck in something they can't. If a seller pays the MFs with points in 2020 then that is a prime target possibly for Disney to buy then sell off.

Your points about the pricing is my point. Why buy a contract without 2020 points with "limited" capital when for an extra $100-$200-$300 you can get a contract you can turn around and sell. Especially when you know there will be a rush of people buying cheap points (OKW/SSR) next month to get direct membership before the minimum goes from 100 to 125 points.




Correct but there is also a minimum point increase coming next month (most likely). If you have $1,000,000 to spend (typical might be 10x that) on DVC points in ROFR are you going to target a contract you are completely locked out of selling for 6-18 months or will you just pay a $1-$5 extra cost to grab the points so you can flip them sooner?

I just don't see the DVC ROFR team not having a more limited budget than normal on pulling contracts back. With the incentives on sold out resorts as well Disney is 100% looking to churn those old resorts and get people buying so they can ROFR more.

The 100 to 125 point increase is also possibly something Disney is stocking up for as last year a few resorts became waitlist when they were not waitlist prior to the increase from 75 to 100. (if I remember correctly)



Yes they are now points they can divide up, move the month around on, add direct benefits too.

Seth
It does not seem like they are targeting any particular resort either right now as I asked a broker today and they had two akv bought back.

 

[dfan_welcomehomeall_19]

Can they then split those large point contracts up into smaller contracts? I know a lot of people thinking they should do a small add here or there...maybe it's to satisfy everyone's add on-itis.

I think they can

 

[mlittig]

Seth
It does not seem like they are targeting any particular resort either right now as I asked a broker today and they had two akv bought back.

Do you know the price range/point range for the AKV contracts taken back So that means they have bought back AKV, GFV, OKW and SSR as far as we know

 

[sethschroeder]

Seth
It does not seem like they are targeting any particular resort either right now as I asked a broker today and they had two akv bought back.

If they are loading up for the 100 to 125 point requirement increase its possible they have a number of points they need ready to sell across various resorts. I suspect they have a breakdown of what add-ons looked like last year when points went from 75 to 100 and know likely what the requirements will be from new direct buyers.

I am making an educated guess that this demand of points comes from the impending point requirement increase in order to avoid anyone going on a waitlist next month. Also the 100 to 125 bump is still only a rumor although its been outlined by a couple guides.

 

[JETSDAD]

DVC has a certain amount of points they keep at each resort....if they are not able to rent out many of the rooms right now due to lack of demand then would it not make sense to actually buy stripped contracts where the current owner has paid the dues, hold those points instead, and sell off the existing points held? In essence they would then be swapping out points that they are responsible for dues on for points that others have paid for already?

 

[CastAStone]

Seth
It does not seem like they are targeting any particular resort either right now as I asked a broker today and they had two akv bought back.

The contracts I would most expect them to buy back would be the 3 sold out resorts they sell the most of - AKV, SSR, OKW. That VGF one was probably just too good to pass up given that they have a wait list for it. I wouldn't be surprised if resorts like VGF and BCV see some movement to clear their waitlists, because while it's not margin accretive vs Riviera and CCV,, it is money in the bank, and that's the name of the game for TWDC right now.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

If its stripped I think you are good. If it has the points then maybe there is a chance it gets taken.

Hoping you are right!! ^^^

I'm thankful to have two that have already passed ROFR....but nervous about a lower Poly I am waiting on. But it is half-stripped so hoping it sneaks past.

 

[Ruttangel]

I just saw that. I didn't think that those prices were even very low with the exception of the GF one. I'm feeling very fortunate that my 150 pt BWV passed at $107 2 weeks ago.

I’ve got a $95 150 BWV currently at ROFR, please let there be a God

 

[poofyo101]

Hoping you are right!! ^^^

I'm thankful to have two that have already passed ROFR....but nervous about a lower Poly I am waiting on. But it is half-stripped so hoping it sneaks past.

Poly is fine. They don’t buy it back

 

[sethschroeder]

I’ve got a $95 150 BWV currently at ROFR, please let there be a God

Where is that one from?

 

[sethschroeder]

DVC has a certain amount of points they keep at each resort....if they are not able to rent out many of the rooms right now due to lack of demand then would it not make sense to actually buy stripped contracts where the current owner has paid the dues, hold those points instead, and sell off the existing points held? In essence they would then be swapping out points that they are responsible for dues on for points that others have paid for already?

This is a good point about them flipping out points without MFs so they can sell the contracts with MFs for the remainder of 2020. It is prorated though so they would only save on a partial amount of MFs.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Disney’s stock has surged in the last few days, potentially freeing up more corporate funds, and the most recent blog from the largest resale dvc market resaler talks about the average dvc contract price now reaching all time highs in July, pretty much across the board. Except, I believe, for VGF, which stabilized but didn’t increase,

I think the return of ROFR indicates that Disney wants a greater piece of the DVC market that they pretty much handed over to resalers these last few months through their own complete inactivity and suspension of direct sales. I don’t blame them. Closing down cost them a lot of money.

As an owner who purchased resale points on and off from April to July, this action will stabilize price and protect our ”investment.” I’m glad.

 

[CastAStone]

As an owner who purchased resale points on and off from April to July, this action will stabilize price and protect our ”investment.” I’m glad.

I will caution again as I have cautioned before that ROFR will only serve to slow the pace of a price decline, not raise it's floor. In a down resale market, if we get to one, the number of sellers would eventually overwhelm the number of contracts Disney would be willing and able to buy back and the prices will march down as smart buyers realize that a contract $3-5 below current market has a 50-50 or 2 in 3 chance of passing. Then that new lower level becomes the market and so on. It will be slower than if there was no ROFR but Disney cannot afford to spend what it would take to put a hard floor under prices if the market turns hard.

 

[jbreen2010]

Worst fears confirmed....disney took my contract:

Jbreen2010---$94-$23984-225-SSR-Jun-0/19, 225/20, 225/21, 225/22- sent 7/1, taken by Disney 8/7

Back to the drawing board

Disney hasn't taken contracts since 3/30 and now they took mine. I guess I should go play the lotto!

 

[Cony]

Worst fears confirmed....disney took my contract:

Jbreen2010---$94-$23984-225-SSR-Jun-0/19, 225/20, 225/21, 225/22- sent 7/1, taken by Disney 8/7

Back to the drawing board

Disney hasn't taken contracts since 3/30 and now they took mine. I guess I should go play the lotto!

I’m a little worried for mine now... I’m so sorry that’s happened to you...

 

[Paul Stupin]

I will caution again as I have cautioned before that ROFR will only serve to slow the pace of a price decline, not raise it's floor. In a down resale market, if we get to one, the number of sellers would eventually overwhelm the number of contracts Disney would be willing and able to buy back and the prices will march down as smart buyers realize that a contract $3-5 below current market has a 50-50 or 2 in 3 chance of passing. Then that new lower level becomes the market and so on. It will be slower than if there was no ROFR but Disney cannot afford to spend what it would take to put a hard floor under prices if the market turns hard.

Good point. Reading the blog, though, it appears as if prices are not heading downward. Good deals are obviously still there, though.