ROFR Thread January to March 2025 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Miss Piggy 1978]

Miss Piggy 1978---$160-$25983-150-VGF-Apr-0/23, 8/24, 300/25, 150/26- sent 1/28

 

[BattyKoda]

BattyKoda---$95-$14374-130-SSR-Dec-39/24, 130/25, 130/26- sent 1/8, passed 1/27

 

[pangyal]

 

[pangyal]

pangyal---$153-$22610-135-PVB-Aug-49/24, 270/25, 135/26, 135/27- sent 1/28

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Agreed. And our VGC contract that passed today was eerily similar to the one that Disney took earlier this month from another buy. It’s an interesting market

June 0/0/210 @ $221(taken)
vs
sept 0/0/240 @225

market keeps dipping for VGC because of VDH and given that it’s an aged resort without recent renovation. But I really think Disney will exercise buy backs on it more heavily this year due to opportune pricing, accumulation of inventory at a low price, and the opportunity for them to sell some direct in 2026 once refurb/reno is complete this year. So when I saw they took back a contract this month for the first time in a looong time….5 days after we sent our contract for ROFR…my stomach dropped.

As someone who spent much of 2023 and 2024 looking at VGC contracts (mostly 200 points and under), I would not say "market keeps dipping for VGC"**-- people have been getting points in the $225-245 normalized range for most of the past 16 months. For example, the deals listed above, missing the current year's points and next year's points are actually a higher price per point than most of the deals reported in 2024, even if the dollar amount is (slightly) below median. My own contract is a great example: the nominal price was $256, but it had more than 50% of its 2022 dues banked into 2023 (valued at nothing because they were close to expiration), and its 2023 dues banked into 2024, plus all of its 2024 and 2025 dues. So we paid $31/pp difference, but I have an extra 3.5 years of points, 1.5 of them without dues (not clear if you got a credit for 2025 dues?), and I don't think anybody would argue that 3 years of points at VGC aren't worth at least $33 (I put them closer to $50), plus the extra year of dues paid dues gets you over $40.

How do I know that the VGC market isn't continuing to decline? Because I would happily jump on any deal that is materially better than the contract I purchased in July 2024 and they aren't materializing.

How I look at the long term pricing trend chart for VGC is that there were two mini-bubbles, first due to ZIRP and revenge travel coinciding and second when people realized how expensive VDH would be with point charts and dues and a lot of people who were sitting on piles of cash/allocated debt intended for VDH decided they would save money over time (and/or get to stay at a better located resort) if they put it into VGC, even at $260-$280 per point, which drove a small, brief FOMO bubble. If you would be staying at VGC with cash rates even if you didn't have points, it's easy to justify even numbers approaching $300/pt...but harder for as many people to afford it when you can't borrow money long term for less than 7%.

**Disclaimer: The market may well be dipping for contracts much over 200 points because they are painful in that they require so much capital upfront, but I don't know one way or another because my searches screen them out-- however the two examples posted here suggest that they are above what I paid for a 125pt contract last summer.

 

[heynowirv]

pangyal---$153-$22610-135-PVB-Aug-49/24, 270/25, 135/26, 135/27- sent 1/28

That's a good one!

 

[thadhouse]

Agreed. And our VGC contract that passed today was eerily similar to the one that Disney took earlier this month from another buy. It’s an interesting market

June 0/0/210 @ $221(taken)
vs
sept 0/0/240 @225

market keeps dipping for VGC because of VDH and given that it’s an aged resort without recent renovation. But I really think Disney will exercise buy backs on it more heavily this year due to opportune pricing, accumulation of inventory at a low price, and the opportunity for them to sell some direct in 2026 once refurb/reno is complete this year. So when I saw they took back a contract this month for the first time in a looong time….5 days after we sent our contract for ROFR…my stomach dropped.

I didn't realize they took a VGC contract this month. That's definitely making me a bit worried about my $233 for 100 points. Hopefully that passes. I definitely wanted to get in due to the refurb (And my guide said grand cal is going up to something like $335 direct in February).

 

[VGCgroupie]

I didn't realize they took a VGC contract this month. That's definitely making me a bit worried about my $233 for 100 points. Hopefully that passes. I definitely wanted to get in due to the refurb (And my guide said grand cal is going up to something like $335 direct in February).

I think you will be fine at $233

 

[babymomo2019]

babymomo2019---$90-$5475-50-AUL-Mar-0/23, 0/24, 0/25, 50/26- sent 1/27

 

[DallasMickey]

As someone who spent much of 2023 and 2024 looking at VGC contracts (mostly 200 points and under), I would not say "market keeps dipping for VGC"**-- people have been getting points in the $225-245 normalized range for most of the past 16 months. For example, the deals listed above, missing the current year's points and next year's points are actually a higher price per point than most of the deals reported in 2024, even if the dollar amount is (slightly) below median. My own contract is a great example: the nominal price was $256, but it had more than 50% of its 2022 dues banked into 2023 (valued at nothing because they were close to expiration), and its 2023 dues banked into 2024, plus all of its 2024 and 2025 dues. So we paid $31/pp difference, but I have an extra 3.5 years of points, 1.5 of them without dues (not clear if you got a credit for 2025 dues?), and I don't think anybody would argue that 3 years of points at VGC aren't worth at least $33 (I put them closer to $50), plus the extra year of dues paid dues gets you over $40.

How do I know that the VGC market isn't continuing to decline? Because I would happily jump on any deal that is materially better than the contract I purchased in July 2024 and they aren't materializing.

How I look at the long term pricing trend chart for VGC is that there were two mini-bubbles, first due to ZIRP and revenge travel coinciding and second when people realized how expensive VDH would be with point charts and dues and a lot of people who were sitting on piles of cash/allocated debt intended for VDH decided they would save money over time (and/or get to stay at a better located resort) if they put it into VGC, even at $260-$280 per point, which drove a small, brief FOMO bubble. If you would be staying at VGC with cash rates even if you didn't have points, it's easy to justify even numbers approaching $300/pt...but harder for as many people to afford it when you can't borrow money long term for less than 7%.

**Disclaimer: The market may well be dipping for contracts much over 200 points because they are painful in that they require so much capital upfront, but I don't know one way or another because my searches screen them out-- however the two examples posted here suggest that they are above what I paid for a 125pt contract last summer.

All valid points. I have been looking mainly at 200+ pt contracts. However there are more examples recently purchased and up for ROFR

Sept 250pts— 0/267/250 @ $222/pt
March 206pts- 0/28/206 @$218/pt
Aug 160pts—0/17/160 @ $219/pt
Dec 140pts—0/42/140 @ $221/pt

Seeing a dollar per point in the low 220s/210s is definitely outside the norm of what we’ve seen. I do think the dip is more recent and across the board on their contracts. Very few contracts getting sold that are $245/pt and above regardless of how loaded they are. Those contracts are sitting with very little movement. Having an alternative in DL (whether is a better value or not is up for debate. I’m biased towards VGC) has had to have some impact which honestly is good for DVC members in general.

 

[TinkAgainU]

I didn't realize they took a VGC contract this month. That's definitely making me a bit worried about my $233 for 100 points. Hopefully that passes. I definitely wanted to get in due to the refurb (And my guide said grand cal is going up to something like $335 direct in February).

I noticed they sold no VGC direct in December - wonder if nobody was interested or they had no inventory? If no inventory, a price increase makes more sense. Otherwise, like all commodities, at some point they overprice and customers look closer at other options. And there are a lot of very nice hotel (and even theme park options) in both California and Florida that did not exist a few years ago.

 

[DallasMickey]

I noticed they sold no VGC direct in December - wonder if nobody was interested or they had no inventory? If no inventory, a price increase makes more sense. Otherwise, like all commodities, at some point they overprice and customers look closer at other options. And there are a lot of very nice hotel (and even theme park options) in both California and Florida that did not exist a few years ago.

No/limited inventory. I inquired in Nov and Dec. they have a waitlist and are not accepting new additions to the waitlist at this time per DVC direct.

 

[TinkAgainU]

No/limited inventory. I inquired in Nov and Dec. they have a waitlist and are not accepting new additions to the waitlist at this time per DVC direct.

Which begs the question, why show it as available at all? Is it to show a $ high figure to push the value of Disneyland Villas? They pulled Grand Floridian from available, in theory could have given it an unrealistic number to push Poly value... maybe different marketing people? They did push the Grand Floridian number up for a short while, but it was clear there were few direct sales at the higher $. Grand Floridian also has no waitlist. Both Grands are popular resale but not Crazy FOMO popular.

 

[Brian Noble]

I am fairly sure that they are not setting the GC retail price to prop up everything else. Most of the time, you have to explicitly ask a Guide before they even admit that the "non-current" resorts exist and can be bought.

 

[emerson7]

Emerson7---$125-$12564-90-CCV@WL-Oct-0/23, 0/24, 90/25, 90/26- sent 1/28

 

[TinkAgainU]

I am fairly sure that they are not setting the GC retail price to prop up everything else. Most of the time, you have to explicitly ask a Guide before they even admit that the "non-current" resorts exist and can be bought.

It's hard to imagine Disneyland Villa buyers not asking if it is the Only option... especially since they walk past the Grand Calif to get to either park... that's why I see having a high number on VGC as important to salespeople. California would come down Very hard on the timeshare agents if they withheld options info... but I'm thinking like an advertising/sales person here... and Disney has often stumped us all with their theories. Raising prices on timeshares that have a declining number of useful years remaining is like a double price increase.

 

[Brian Noble]

I will bet you a mickeybar that it is less than 10%, and probably much less.

 

[Brian Noble]

(And to be clear, that does not include "Are there any other resorts for sale" because those include Aulani, a meaningful alternative for West Coasters. I mean less than 10% ask "Are there any other resorts at Disneyland.")

 

[AstroBlasters]

No/limited inventory. I inquired in Nov and Dec. they have a waitlist and are not accepting new additions to the waitlist at this time per DVC direct.

There is not an official DVC waitlist. The points load in the system and guides try to instantly pull them to make phone calls to a personal list they have.

 

[Boosterman]

Our contract Closed 8 days ago and was sent to Disney. As existing members, do they email regarding the contract when they have it? Only because I want to know when I can start contacting to get my pointed added on.

No, you don't get any email from Disney. You will have to check your account. Mine closed on Jan 16th and it is showing up on my existing membership as of today.