I ended up sending four total offers to different sellers over a six week period. One declined without a counter, one dropped their list price entirely but didn't counter, one countered but it was still a bit higher than I preferred for a 160 point contract (good deal but over my allocated budget at the moment).
I decided to increase my budget, but also look at 200 point contracts. I sent the same offer I had been sending to the others and it was accepted right away. I think it was just timing with this specific seller.
This offer lines up with the deals seen over at
dvcrofr.com, which is what I use to get an idea of the current rates and what is passing. I'm still worried it won't pass though..!