ROFR Thread April to June 2023 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Chili327]

Every time we bid, its either too low & the selling doesn't want to counter or there are a few offers & we have to go higher to have a shot!

So i say you either go higher or walk. If they want to go lower they’ll get in contact with you.

 

[lilsonicfan]

Although I fear jinxing it - I may have just made a deal to buy…… omg!! Details later when I have them. This is my 14th offer, ish, so keep trying everyone!

 

[armstrongwillf]

Armstrongwillf---$75-$25590-300-SSR-Jun-0/21, 0/22, 600/23, 300/24- sent 4/6

 

[BlueIsis]

BlueIsis---$119-$6606-50-AUL-Jun-0/21, 0/22, 49/23, 50/24- sent 3/16, passed 3/23

BlueIsis---$100-$9421-85-AUL-Jun-0/21, 0/22, 0/23, 85/24- sent 3/17, passed 3/29

So...I have a serious problem. My VGC contract (1st DVC contract) isn't closed yet (delayed closing), so I did this while I was waiting. I want to buy VDH direct and I was getting paranoid that my VGC wouldn't come through in time for me to get the member pricing. So logically, must buy more contracts!!!

 

[Paul Stupin]

I think most brokers are still thinking that the 2022 prices were "normal" price increases from 2021 just like real estate pricing of homes. I think they are all in for a shock by the end of 2023 where prices fall too, all the layoffs are just starting and might accelerate by this summer causing some much needed corrections.

Or resale buyers are in for a shock when ROFR comes back, or for any of a thousand other reasons prices start to rise and we realize we were at a bottom, and it becomes apparent that the 2022 price increases from 2021 were indeed normal!

I think the current window of opportunity might be smaller than we think. Nothing lasts forever.

Also, “much needed corrections?” Aren’t prices pretty low?

 

[ocdb8r1]

Or resale buyers are in for a shock when ROFR comes back, or for any of a thousand other reasons prices start to rise and we realize we were at a bottom, and it becomes apparent that the 2022 price increases from 2021 were indeed normal!

I think the current window of opportunity might be smaller than we think. Nothing lasts forever.

Also, “much needed corrections?” Aren’t prices pretty low?

There are still 2200 contracts listed in the market. That's 35% more than the historic highs, excepting the last 6 months (where it peaked at 2400-2500). Yes, brokers and seller seem to be resisting the continued dive in pricing but absent Disney coming back in with heavy ROFR, it just means contracts will continue to sit and stagnate. If that happens too long, the market will drop again. Without Disney exercising ROFR, I just don't think there's enough demand to balance the amount of sellers.

I don't disagree there's a chance we hit a current bottom, but brokers are already trying to push the average pricing back to what it was a year ago....which in my mind is premature.

 

[Ruttangel]

One of the agents from the board sponsor was on a show talking about unrealistic offers. They said they were receiving a bunch of low offers and that those putting out those offers justified them because of other low offers getting accepted and how it was not the norm and are unicorn deals. Sounded like she calling out this thread lol.

They should invite one of us lowballers on to give a different perspective

 

[lovethesun12]

They should invite one of us lowballers on to give a different perspective

Yes, that opinion is so biased. Rising interest rates, no ROFR from Disney, tons of contracts on the market...I'm not sure you're looking at the big picture if you expect prices to stay high despite all that.

At the end of the day, I'm sure Disney was getting tons of nice deals like we have seen here when it was a seller's market. With no ROFR, they are leaving them on the table for others.

 

[Ruttangel]

Yes, that opinion is so biased. Rising interest rates, no ROFR from Disney, tons of contracts on the market...I'm not sure you're looking at the big picture if you expect prices to stay high despite all that.

At the end of the day, I'm sure Disney was getting tons of nice deals like we have seen here when it was a seller's market. With no ROFR, they are leaving them on the table for others.

We have a lot of experience as well and have been saying for ages it’s a buyers market and with no ROFR we are going to find the floor ourselves

 

[CVG]

One of the agents from the board sponsor was on a show talking about unrealistic offers. They said they were receiving a bunch of low offers and that those putting out those offers justified them because of other low offers getting accepted and how it was not the norm and are unicorn deals. Sounded like she calling out this thread lol.

Well, let's ask Paul about his PVB deal. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black!

 

[E2ME2]

Or resale buyers are in for a shock when ROFR comes back, or for any of a thousand other reasons prices start to rise and we realize we were at a bottom, and it becomes apparent that the 2022 price increases from 2021 were indeed normal!

I think the current window of opportunity might be smaller than we think. Nothing lasts forever.

Also, “much needed corrections?” Aren’t prices pretty low?

Yes - “Carpe-WOO”
Seize your Window Of Opportunity

 

[Dispirate6]

What show

One of the agents from the board sponsor was on a show talking about unrealistic offers. They said they were receiving a bunch of low offers and that those putting out those offers justified them because of other low offers getting accepted and how it was not the norm and are unicorn deals. Sounded like she calling out this thread lol.

What show were they talking on

 

[Matty B13]

Or resale buyers are in for a shock when ROFR comes back, or for any of a thousand other reasons prices start to rise and we realize we were at a bottom, and it becomes apparent that the 2022 price increases from 2021 were indeed normal!

From what I can tell, ROFR is dead at least till the end of this fiscal year, but if we see no buy backs this Fall, then prices will still be declining. The March Direct point sales will tell us where things are heading. That being said it is always the general economy that affects most DVC pricing, and the economy isn't looking that great right now.

 

[tom1944]

Looks like about 100 new contracts have been posted for sale from this time yesterday

 

[DISfamCT]

DISfamCT---$96.88-$16320-160-AKL-DEC-208/22, 82/23, 160/24, - sent 3/29, patiently waiting… (seller pays dues)

You guys have been a great resource in this process. I made well over 20 offers on SSR and AKL and finally got one for what I thought was a good deal.

 

[LATipton13]

LATipton13---$96.67-$15303-150-SSR-Mar-0/22, 110/23, 150/24, 150/25-Sellr pays 1/2 MF'23- sent 4/7

This is going to be our first contract after researching for what feels like forever! Now I'll be anxiously checking my emails hoping for a quick turnaround.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

One of the agents from the board sponsor was on a show talking about unrealistic offers. They said they were receiving a bunch of low offers and that those putting out those offers justified them because of other low offers getting accepted and how it was not the norm and are unicorn deals. Sounded like she calling out this thread lol.

I find it rather interesting none of the agents publicly take the perspective of advising sellers (or those considering to sell) to hold off for now given the market conditions. Instead it’s the buyers who are unrealistic.

Supply is up. Demand is declining… price floor was removed. DVC is a non-essential product. Sellers have to accept this reality or wait for that uneducated buyer to find out about resale after talking to a DVC guide for hours on hours.

 

[lilsonicfan]

i think I found the show you all mentioned, “My DVC points”? But after I watched that, I watched the DVC fan show episode all about how there’s no ROFR and how it’s a great time to buy. Different people on, I suppose, but I found it odd that the messaging was SO different. In one, it was “those are unicorn contracts; offering more than $5 off list price is never going to get accepted” and in the other it was “the deals are amazing, they’ve seen AKL go for $100, etc”.

 

[pianomanzano]

I find it rather interesting none of the agents publicly take the perspective of advising sellers (or those considering to sell) to hold off for now given the market conditions. Instead it’s the buyers who are unrealistic.

Supply is up. Demand is declining… price floor was removed. DVC is a non-essential product. Sellers have to accept this reality or wait for that uneducated buyer to find out about resale after talking to a DVC guide for hours on hours.

i think I found the show you all mentioned, “My DVC points”? But after I watched that, I watched the DVC fan show episode all about how there’s no ROFR and how it’s a great time to buy. Different people on, I suppose, but I found it odd that the messaging was SO different. In one, it was “those are unicorn contracts; offering more than $5 off list price is never going to get accepted” and in the other it was “the deals are amazing, they’ve seen AKL go for $100, etc”.

Brokers will always say it’s a good time to sell/buy, regardless of how the market is fairing. They’ll never say not to do so, it’s like asking a barber if you need a haircut, they won’t say no. Any blog post, show, podcast a broker is on they will always say now is the perfect time and will use any recent news or trends as justification to do so.

I will say as a fan of that podcast it was a little disappointing to watch that last episode. They’ve always talked about buying low earlier on and selling their contracts for profit, or missed opportunities to buy low (like at Grand Cal). Now many people have the opportunity to buy low (many as first time members), and being chastised for doing so. I get that they’re beholden to their sponsor, but that episode really was just about pushing the broker’s agenda. Even going so far as to showing their instant sale option (which they conveniently left out the seller is on the hook for all closing costs, commission, fees, and dues) as a reason to not go lower than $5-6/pt from listing.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I am so lost. Are you guys allowed to link the podcast you're talking about? Because I'd like check it out.