ROFR Thread April to June 2022 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[hglenn]

Thanks for putting the effort in!

If you saved this data, could you run the median for each as well?

Edited to add...

 

[LadybugsMum]

Just in case anyone was wondering - and to put on full display my complete nerdiness... For Q1, the average days in ROFR for passed contracts was 21.56 days and for taken contracts was 20.1. Very similar, in reality, although it feels like the contracts taken happen so much quicker.

ETA
Passed MIN 10 / MAX 49 / MED 21
Taken MIN 7 / MAX 34 / MED 20.5

I'm a statistical programmer and I applaud your nerdiness.

 

[Hopfather28]

Just in case anyone was wondering - and to put on full display my complete nerdiness... For Q1, the average days in ROFR for passed contracts was 21.56 days and for taken contracts was 20.1. Very similar, in reality, although it feels like the contracts taken happen so much quicker.

ETA
Passed MIN 10 / MAX 49 / MED 21
Taken MIN 7 / MAX 34 / MED 20.5

If you've got the sample sdtandard deviation
for each I'll run a hypothesis test on the difference of the means to determine if it's true that it takes less time. Statistical significance and practical significance are the same.

 

[Ashlotte]

dlam32---$134-$41269-300-RIV-Feb-0/21, 0/22, 294/23, 300/24- sent 3/18, passed 4/7

It seems people are spot on when they say Disney doesn't buy back active resorts. Cheers!

Great price. Congrats!

 

[suzking7]

PASSED


AKV:




AUL:





BCV:



BLT:





BWV:




HH:





OKW:





OKW EXTENDED:





PVB:





RIV:





SSR:






VGC:





VGF:





WL/ BRV:





WL/ CCV:





VB:


mindymouse01---$68-$12536-150-VB-Oct-254/21, 150/22, 150/23- sent 1/24, passed 2/9

ads66---$80-$6484-65-VB-Apr-0/20, 0/21, 65/22, 65/23- sent 1/26, passed 2/15

MICKIMINI---$75-$8981-95-VB-Oct-0/20, 95/21, 190/22, 95/23- sent 2/15, passed 3/7


WAITING




AKV:



Zazu the major domo---$134-$29293-200-AKV-Sep-0/21, 100/22, 200/23- sent 3/11

Mejones1115---$141-$22560-160-AKV-Feb-0/21, 0/22, 160/23, 160/24-Seller pays closing- sent 3/14

Paul55555---$135-$16795-120-AKV-Jun-0/20, 0/21, 125/22, 120/23-International seller- sent 3/20

larry47591(seller)---$134-$14099-100-AKV-Mar-0/21, 50/22, 100/23-Seller pay MF ‘22- sent 3/20

Jrr4885---$125-$13994-100-AKV-Feb-0/20, 20/21, 100/22, 100/23 -sent 3/21

CaitMcH---$136-$29614-200-AKV-Dec-68/20, 200/21, 200/22, 200/23- sent 3/27

Mejones1115---$166-$9300-50-AKV-Dec- 69/21, 50/22, 50/23- sent 3/28

UbieTinkingMon---$130-$29725-220-AKV-Sep-0/21, 228/22, 220/23- sent 3/29

AKVDisneyFan---$138-$14499-100-AKV-Mar-0/21, 0/22, 83/23, 100/24- sent 4/1



AUL:


JereMary08---$125-$16179-120-AUL-Aug-0/20, 120/21, 120/22, 120/23- sent 3/9


BCV:


dboules---$195-$5092.75-25-BCV-Jun-0/20, 0/21, 37/22, 25/23- sent 3/16

dboules---$190--$10153.25-50-BCV-Jun-0/20, 0/21, 62/22, 50/23- sent 3/16

kenito(Seller)---$180-$31500-175-BCV-Feb-0/21, 201/22, 175/23- sent 3/18

Redheadprincess---$150-$32506-200-BCV-Mar-0/21, 349/22, 200/23, 200/24-International seller- sent 3/25


BLT:


Beta to the Max---$145-$25149-160-BLT-Feb-0/21, 160/22, 160/23- sent 3/1

rundisney-79---$160-$46211-270-BLT-Oct-270/21, 540/22, 270/23- sent 3/3

shand32783---$156.25-$26134-160-BLT-Sep-0/20, 0/21, 320/22, 160/23- sent 3/10

Disneycouple99(seller)---$182-$10073-50-BLT-Dec-0/21, 50/22, 50/23- sent 3/10

Disneycouple99(seller)---$190-$10504-50-BLT-Dec-50/21, 50/22, 50/23- sent 3/10

bauermj---$170-$11175-60-BLT-Feb-0/21, 60/22, 60/23, 60/24- sent 3/11

Disneycouple99(seller)---$195-$6062-30-BLT-Dec-28/21, 30/22, 30/23- sent 3/15

MommyMikeAmouseki---$172-$26224-150-BLT-Apr-0/21, 300/22, 150/23, 150/24- sent 3/22

rundisney79---$162-$34649-200-BLT-Dec-256/21, 200/22, 200/23- sent 3/27


BWV:


msh11982---$149-$23050-150-BWV-Jun-0/20, 0/21, 150/22, 150/23- sent 3/11

ADress&AnimalSidekick---$150-$8029-50-BWV-Dec-0/20, 0/21, 50/22, 50/23- sent 3/11

hglenn---$125-$32790-240-BWV-Apr-13/21, 240/22, 240/23, 240/24- sent 3/18

MFMont---$147-$23940-150-BWV-Aug-150/21, 300/22, 150/23- sent 3/20

CDKG---$148-$28858-180-BWV-Feb-0/21, 182/22, 180/23- sent 3/24

NeoChaos---$150-$31211-200-BWV-Mar-0/21, 210/22, 200/23-seller pays 1/2 closing- sent 3/25

aprilb123---$145-$23787-150-BWV-Apr-0/21, 150/22, 150/23- sent 4/1

HH:


ncgator---$79-$14060-150-HH-Oct-0/21, 300/22, 150/23- sent 3/8


OKW:


Lakesideturtle---$114-$38980-310-OKW-Jun-0/20, 0/21, 620/22, 310/23- Int' Seller- sent 3/11

JETSDAD---$103-$29749-280-OKW-Apr-0/21, 0/22, 280/23, 280/24-International Seller- sent 3/29

Den8uml---$113-$28845-230-OKW-Sep-0/20, 0/21, 230/22, 230/23- sent 3/30


OKW EXTENDED:


mexacajun---$117-$38489-320-OKW(E)-Apr-0/21, 0/22, 320/23- sent 3/14

Rollnstns---$129-$13579-100-OKW(E)-Feb-0/21, 0/22, 100/23, 100/24- sent 3/18



PVB:



taylorpaulos---$189-$10438-50-PVB-Dec-0/20, 46/21, 50/22, 50/23- sent 3/9

christophles---$155-$33034-200-PVB-Aug-0/21, 163/22, 247/23-seller pay MF22 used- sent 3/15

ADress&AnimalSidekick---$200-$6514-30-PVB-Sep-30/20, 30/21, 30/22, 30/23- sent 3/16

Hopfather28---$160-$13025-75-PVB-Jun-0/21, 37/22, 75/23- sent 3/21

zachatak---$157-$16480-100-PVB-Mar-0/21, 50/22, 100/23- sent 3/18

GetMeOnSpaceMtn---$162-$34788-200-PVB-Mar-0/21, 192/22, 200/23- sent 4/1



RIV:





SSR:



Kristilynn629---$135-$23050-150-SSR-Sep-108/21, 135/22, 150/23- sent 3/9

Poncho Pete---$130-$22582-160-SSR-Apr-0/21, 160/22, 160/23 - sent 3/11

Jessicall9785---$125-$36600-270-SSR-Mar-41/21, 270/22, 270/23- sent 3/15

CaptainAmerica---$120-$39057-300-SSR-Dec-178/21, 300/22, 300/23- sent 3/18

kyakubesin---$142-$53425-350-SSR-Dec-700/21, 350/22, 350/23- sent 3/18

mrsap---$125-$27163-200-SSR-Apr-0/21, 182/22, 200/23- sent 3/21

MalorieA---$126-$11404-80-SSR-Aug-0/21, 160/22, 80/23- sent 3/23

Keirabella2012 (Seller)---$128-$27670-200-SSR-Oct-0/21, 169/22, 200/23- sent 3/24

DKZB (Seller)---$135.8-$30554-225-SSR-Aug-0/20, 0/21, 225/22, 225/23- Seller Pays '22 MF and CC- sent 3/25

larry47591(seller)---$132.5-$12302-85-SSR-Mar-0/21, 52/22, 85/23- sent 3/25

MnDisGirl---$135-$24474-175-SSR-Feb-0/21, 175/22, 175/23, 175/24- sent 3/25

christophles---$115-$20250-160-SSR-Aug-0/21, 161/22, 160/23- sent 3/28

Jrbenji---$150-$9003-50-SSR-Feb-0/21, 50/22, 50/23, 50/24- sent 3/30

Mrsjoneslilac---$123-$26951-200-SSR-Jun-0/21, 368/22, 200/23- sent 3/31




VGC:

Keggity---$292-$23164-75-VGC-Oct-0/20, 150/21, 75/22, 75/23- sent 3/14


VGF:



Alliejr---$175-$19045-100-VGF-Jun-0/21, 200/22, 100/23- sent 3/17

RamblinWreck---$144-$33736-230-VGF-Apr-0/21, 0/22, 195/23, 230/24-Seller rebates 2023 MFs- sent 3/21


WL/ BRV:


Jay_Disney---$110-$36289-300-BRV@WL-Oct-300/21, 300/22, 300/23- sent 3/11

jginpl---$120-$3500-25-BRV@WL-Feb-0/21, 0/22, 0/23, 25/24- sent 3/24


WL/ CCV:


Pens Fan---$160-$30005-175-CCV@WL-Sep-0/21, 295/22, 175/23- sent 3/11

Ruttangel---$142-$11276-75-CCV@WL-Mar-0/21, 10/22, 75/23, 75/24-Delayed closing 6/4- sent 3/15

hobbes42---$162-$34757-200-CCV@WL-Jun-0/20, 0/21, 223/22, 200/23- sent 3/9

hobbes42---$164-$26032-150-CCV@WL-Jun-0/20, 0/21, 82/22, 150/23- sent 3/14

mvenez---$164-$35162-200-CCV@WL-Aug-0/21, 371/22, 200/23- sent 3/14

hobbes42---$162-$29686-175-CCV@WL-Jun-0/20, 0/21, 87/22, 175/23- sent 3/16

Pens Fan---$165-$26266-150-CCV@WL-Sep-0/21, 135/22, 150/23-Prorated 21 MF- sent 4/1


VB:


brazzledazzler---$109-$6460-50-VB-Sept-0/21, 56/22, 50/23 -subsidized dues - sent 3/28


TAKEN



AKV:





AUL:



BCV:




BLT:



dlam32---$153-$31600-200-BLT-Feb-0/21, 0/22, 200/23- sent 3/10, taken 4/1


BWV:




HH:




OKW:


BeWithMickey---$125-$12500-100-OKW-Dec-0/20, 0/21, 100/22, 100/23-seller pays MF '22'- Cannot close until October- sent 3/9, taken 4/1


OKW EXTENDED:




PVB:





SSR:


Sandisw (Seller)---$120-$25552-200-SSR-Dec-0/20, 68/21, 130/22, 200/23- sent 3/10, taken 4/1

Junebug2---$125-$27262-200-SSR-Apr-0/21, 200/22, 200/23- sent 3/8, taken 4/2


VGC:




VGF:




WL/ BRV:




WL/ CCV:





VB:

 

[Kristine3204]

Kristine3204---$137-$7778-50-BRV@WL-Oct-100/21, 50/22, 50/23- sent 1/23, passed 2/9

 

[Kristine3204]

Kristine3204---$145-$9957-60-OKW(E)-Dec-120/21, 60/22, 60/23- sent 2/24, passed 3/17

 

[Lakesideturtle]

Lakesideturtle---$114-$38980-310-OKW-Jun-0/20, 0/21, 620/22, 310/23- Int' Seller- sent 3/11 passed 4/5.

Disney waived ROFR and issued the Estoppel at the same time.

Excited this passed!

 

[Lakesideturtle]

Lakesideturtle---$114-$28139-220-AUL-Jun-0/20, 0/21, 164/22, 220/23-Int' Seller- sent 4/1

 

[Lakesideturtle]

Since Disney isn't buying Aluani this should fine. Feeling good about the price per point.

 

[Lakesideturtle]

Was getting nervous after a few Hilton Heads were taken, but we PASSED!

ncgator---$79-$14060-150-HH-Oct-0/20, 0/21, 300/22, 150/23- sent 3/8, passed 4/4

Congrats!

 

[hglenn]

If you've got the sample sdtandard deviation
for each I'll run a hypothesis test on the difference of the means to determine if it's true that it takes less time. Statistical significance and practical significance are the same.

You, my friend, are way out of my league.... That exceeds my skillset....

 

[Mexacajun]

Lakesideturtle---$114-$38980-310-OKW-Jun-0/20, 0/21, 620/22, 310/23- Int' Seller- sent 3/11 passed 4/5.

Disney waived ROFR and issued the Estoppel at the same time.

Excited this passed!

What is estoppel?

 

[Ruttangel]

I've just realised something....BCV is now the most expensive WDW resort to get through ROFR.
If you are paying over $170 then that's more than any WDW has ever been taken back at.
Amazing to me anyway

 

[BeachClub2014]

I've just realised something....BCV is now the most expensive WDW resort to get through ROFR.
If you are paying over $170 then that's more than any WDW has ever been taken back at.
Amazing to me anyway

I came to a similar realization...right after submitting a BCV contract for $154 per point.

 

[Hopfather28]

You, my friend, are way out of my league.... That exceeds my skillset....

So I decided to run the analysis as well. As it turns out while there is a practically insignificant difference of 1.5 days. There is actually statistically significant evidence that ROFR takes longer for those contracts that pass than those that they take. There's actually only a 2.3% chance that what we observed would happen by random happenstance if indeed the wait times were equal.

 

[VAlegacy]

What is estoppel?

A letter verifying to the closing company that the deed/contract is what the seller claims it is.

 

[hglenn]

So I decided to run the analysis as well. As it turns out while there is a practically insignificant difference of 1.5 days. There is actually statistically significant evidence that ROFR takes longer for those contracts that pass than those that they take. There's actually only a 2.3% chance that what we observed would happen by random happenstance if indeed the wait times were equal.

Explain that last part to me - what do you mean by "only a 2.3% chance that what we observed would happen by random happenstance..."?

 

[Hopfather28]

Explain that last part to me - what do you mean by "only a 2.3% chance that what we observed would happen by random happenstance..."?

When performing a hypothesis test you have a level of significance. That level is a threshold at which you will reject the null hypothesis. In this case our null hypothesis is that there is not a difference in the mean wait times. Our alternative hypothesis in this case was that the wait time for those that pass is longer. To make a decision you find a P-value. That P-value is a probability and it is the probability of observing what we observed if the null were true. That p-value for this test was 2.3%. So, if it were true that there were no difference in mean wait times, we would only expect to observe what we observed 2.3% of the time due to random variability. Since that number is what I consider to be less than my significance level I have rejected the null hypothesis in favor of our alternative.

 

[BeachClub2014]

When performing a hypothesis test you have a level of significance. That level is a threshold at which you will reject the null hypothesis. In this case our null hypothesis is that there is not a difference in the mean wait times. Our alternative hypothesis in this case was that the wait time for those that pass is longer. To make a decision you find a P-value. That P-value is a probability and it is the probability of observing what we observed if the null were true. That p-value for this test was 2.3%. So, if it were true that there were no difference in mean wait times, we would only expect to observe what we observed 2.3% of the time due to random variability. Since that number is what I consider to be less than my significance level I have rejected the null hypothesis in favor of our alternative.

Uh huh. I was thinking the exact same thing, but you beat me to it.