ROFR statistics 1Q2021

[achinforsomebacon]

I didn't want to hijack pangyal's great ROFR thread so I decided to start another with some ROFR statistics. I'm trying to compile additional information and put together more robust charts, but I'll start with a few simple ones. The first one shows the breakdown of contracts between passed/waiting/taken by the week they were sent to ROFR. It also includes the average number of days for ROFR. Note that the more recent weeks are skewed downwards since contracts that are still waiting will increase the average # of days as they go through ROFR. It looks like it's been fairly consistent at around a 3 week wait for ROFR over the past couple of months.

ETA - all data is coming from the ROFR threads so it's only a subset of all contracts being sent.

 

[achinforsomebacon]

Here's another one that shows a much longer history. This shows passed vs taken and average ROFR days. It's not surprising that last year around this time, everything was passing (WHY DIDN'T WE BUY THEN?!?!?!). I didn't realize that very few contracts were being taken at the end of 2019. Even if you adjust for volume, it was still a down period.

 

[BigDaddyLaBouff]

I didn't want to hijack pangyal's great ROFR thread so I decided to start another with some ROFR statistics. I'm trying to compile additional information and put together more robust charts, but I'll start with a few simple ones. The first one shows the breakdown of contracts between passed/waiting/taken by the week they were sent to ROFR. It also includes the average number of days for ROFR. Note that the more recent weeks are skewed downwards since contracts that are still waiting will increase the average # of days as they go through ROFR. It looks like it's been fairly consistent at around a 3 week wait for ROFR over the past couple of months.

View attachment 565269

Interesting data. I always thought they only take the unit if they have an immediate buyer or the price is below floor. Looks like there is seasonality based on more DVC buyers which drives more denied ROFR's.

 

[DVC Doctor]

I think this will have more value if it also indicated resort as not all ROFR are equal at all resorts

 

[Ruttangel]

I think this will have more value if it also indicated resort as not all ROFR are equal at all resorts

I did this a few weeks back if it helps
https://www.disboards.com/threads/purchasing-dvc-analysis.3828292/

 

[DVC Doctor]

I did this a few weeks back if it helps
https://www.disboards.com/threads/purchasing-dvc-analysis.3828292/

I saw that, what I meant was the visual graph was more interesting vs the text chart but it mixed every resort. I am not trying to suggest more work for you, as this data is fantastic. I am just saying individual resort ROFR is more significant than looking at ROFR for all DVC mixed together. thanks for your efforts doing this

 

[achinforsomebacon]

I saw that, what I meant was the visual graph was more interesting vs the text chart but it mixed every resort. I am not trying to suggest more work for you, as this data is fantastic. I am just saying individual resort ROFR is more significant than looking at ROFR for all DVC mixed together. thanks for your efforts doing this

Definitely agree that it's more interesting by resort. I've been trying to figure out the best way to show the info since there's a lot to think about (passed vs taken, p/pt, average time of ROFR, size of contract, etc.). And then there are so many resorts that it starts to be a lot of information.

 

[achinforsomebacon]

Here's a summary of the current quarter's ROFR data by resort. I know this is all in the other thread, but sometimes a visual is more helpful. One thing that stood out to me is that while BLT has been getting hammered, I didn't realize BWV was also being taken back at such a high rate. I left the avg ROFR days in for now, but it's probably not that useful at the resort level. p/pt would be better, but on a limited sample, the size of the contract can skew the data.

 

[Sandisw]

Here's a summary of the current quarter's ROFR data by resort. I know this is all in the other thread, but sometimes a visual is more helpful. One thing that stood out to me is that while BLT has been getting hammered, I didn't realize BWV was also being taken back at such a high rate. I left the avg ROFR days in for now, but it's probably not that useful at the resort level. p/pt would be better, but on a limited sample, the size of the contract can skew the data.

View attachment 565614

Is this just what is reported here on the DIs? Or did you gather other data via other sources?

 

[I Run Long]

I don't see AKV there or did I miss it?

 

[achinforsomebacon]

Is this just what is reported here on the DIs? Or did you gather other data via other sources?

This is just the info from the ROFR threads. I track a few resorts based on the Comptroller site for my own purposes, but not all of them. The volume of resales is much higher than I would have expected when looking at everything!

 

[achinforsomebacon]

I don't see AKV there or did I miss it?

Good catch! I copied another chart that skipped the first row of data so AKV didn't included. I added to this one. Everything else was ok, just missed the first row for AKV.

 

[jun0192]

I am still waiting on ROFR. Is Disney behind or is it my dealer?

BCV 175 point contract $142/pt sent 3/30/21 and still waiting... anyone else waiting this long? I thought they hadonly 30 days.

 

[BigDaddyLaBouff]

I am still waiting on ROFR. Is Disney behind or is it my dealer?

BCV 175 point contract $142/pt sent 3/30/21 and still waiting... anyone else waiting this long? I thought they hadonly 30 days.

Check back with your broker... they should know by now... Disney does not get behind.

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

Thanks @achinforsomebacon! It's nice to see the information from the ROFR thread at a glance.

Also, I like how your picture is of a warthog when your username wants bacon.

 

[hhisc16]

"Hilton Head had two buy backs in April, which were the first buy backs for Hilton Head observed by DVCRM since August 2019"
This is interesting to see a new resort on the ROFR, especially a beach resort that is on the lower point price end of DVC.