ROFR - Has the resale market reached its bottom?

[bookwormde]

Wow 60-80 SSR (10,000pts) contracts a month, I had no ides SSR sales were that bad. There are still something like a 600,000 points undeclared and at that rate probably at least 400,000 left from the first THV declaration. With new points being sold for all practical purposes all SSR, BLT, AKV points are going into inventory and will be there for years.

I am thinking from what you are saying that maybe 25% of what they are buying back is being resold.

bookwormde

 

[wdrl]

Wow 60-80 SSR (10,000pts) contracts a month, I had no ides SSR sales were that bad. There are still something like a 600,000 points undeclared and at that rate probably at least 400,000 left from the first THV declaration. With new points being sold for all practical purposes all SSR, BLT, AKV points are going into inventory and will be there for years.


bookwormde

I've been tracking SSR sales for a few months (see http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2265909). Since January 2009 when DVD declared half of the 60 THVs for the DVC inventory, DVD has sold about 32% of the 452,625 points declared. That means that it has about 308,000 points unsold from the first THV declaration. Since there are 30 more THVs left to be declared, that means there are another 452,625 SSR points to be declared and sold.

 

[CMOORE185]

I've been tracking SSR sales for a few months (see http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2265909). Since January 2009 when DVD declared half of the 60 THVs for the DVC inventory, DVD has sold about 32% of the 452,625 points declared. That means that it has about 308,000 points unsold from the first THV declaration. Since there are 30 more THVs left to be declared, that means there are another 452,625 SSR points to be declared and sold.

It is amazing to me they sell as many points as they do when SSR resale is at least $30 per point less than they are selling for.

 

[wdrl]

It is amazing to me they sell as many points as they do when SSR resale is at least $30 per point less than they are selling for.

Yes, it is amazing that DVD has sold as many SSR points as it has. When I first started tracking sales, I thought the majority of sales would be DVC members adding on a small (<100) number of points. Its not that easy to find a 25 or 50 point SSR resale contract, especially for some UYs such as February. However, the recorded SSR deeds have averaged over 130 points per contract. Based on the master contract numbers displayed on these deeds, a large number of contracts are first time buyers.

 

[lugnut33]

Does anybody know how much DVD makes off a THV that is booked through CRO? I mean, they are consistantly pulling 600-800 per night for those villas when booked with cash, how much does DVD see back from that? Maybe it's not worth them selling all the units?

 

[wdrl]

Does anybody know how much DVD makes off a THV that is booked through CRO? I mean, they are consistantly pulling 600-800 per night for those villas when booked with cash, how much does DVD see back from that? Maybe it's not worth them selling all the units?

I'm not sure it matters whether DVD's or Disney Resorts' bottom line gets credit for money generated by THVs that are booked for cash through CRO. The real advantage to the DVC membership is that DVD has declared far more THVs for DVC than it needed to. 15 Units (each containing two THVs and 30,175 points) were declared in January 2009, but DVD has yet to sell even 5 full Units' worth of points from this declaration. I think the popularity of the THVs has definitely boosted interest in and demand for SSR points. Perhaps the planned rehab of the Paddock pool will also generate some demand in SSR. All of this interest and demand might result in at least a stabilization of SSR's resale price, if not some upward movement.

 

[Brian Noble]

The real advantage to the DVC membership is that DVD has declared far more THVs for DVC than it needed to.

And even so, THV is easily the most in-demand booking category judging from the availability reports. It will be interesting to see if this changes when the other half go in-system.

 

[lugnut33]

And even so, THV is easily the most in-demand booking category judging from the availability reports. It will be interesting to see if this changes when the other half go in-system.

I have a current resale offer pending so I can specifically stay in the THVs when we go every other year. So far it's the best place I've found on property (my opinion of course). I love it.

 

[bookwormde]

WDRL,

Thanks for the precise numbers on SSR, I was thinking a 2br was about 20k points but I think that was BLT, which is more points. 148k in I think 12 months, at that rate it will be 5+ years before it sells out, and then they can start selling the ROFR points.

bookwormde

 

[raykit98]

Is there a site that shows an average ROFR points list?

 

[silmarg]

Is there a site that shows an average ROFR points list?

i see you found it. its a great thread.