Riviera v Saratoga Resale

[TexasChick123]

They had better ALL be purchasing for the 7-11 month window at Rivera, or there are going to be some seriously unhappy Rivera resale owners.

I’m sure all the reputable brokers will explain the caveats of all the new DVCs. They already have to explain that no resales now can book Riviera and beyond.

 

[mab2012]

I'm still kind of on the fence about this. All this talk about "people buy where they want to stay anyway so the restrictions won't matter" implies that the ability to trade within DVC basically carries no value. I suspect that's true for a small subset of buyers, but I think for most prospective buyers, the ability to trade is a very strong selling point.

Prospective Rivera buyers on these boards seem to fall into one of two camps:

1. Those who have decided to buy Rivera direct in spite of the resale mess, either because they're not bothered by the possibility of a lower resale price, or because they don't believe it will happen.
2. Those who would be interested in buying Rivera on the cheap in exchange for giving up the ability to trade.

I'm not hearing a great many people saying "I'd be willing to pay a premium resale price for Rivera because I don't care about trading anyway". I sure there are a few in that category. But it'll take more than a few to hold up Rivera's resale value.

Returning to the direct question of Rivera resale price in 10 years... by then the expiration on BCV and BWV will be very much on the horizon, and I think that resale prices on those resorts (which are absolutely crazy now, IMO) will have to come back to something more reflective of those end dates. If I'm looking for an Epcot resort, and Rivera with all its restrictions costs as much or more (amortized) than BCV or BWV, why wouldn't I just pick up a BCV or BWV contract for 10-12 years, then re-evaluate my options when that contract expires? In the meantime I still get my Epcot area resort, plus I can trade into the other legacy resorts for as long that contract lasts. And when it expires, Rivera resales will still be there.

So the only reason to pay a premium resale price for Rivera would be for the love of Rivera specifically, even over BCV, BWV, or whatever other new options pop up in the meantime. Maybe it will be that popular, and maybe it won't. Wasn't that long ago that many long-time owners on this board were proclaiming that they wouldn't want to stay at that location at any price. Time will tell.

Comparing to SSR, Rivera will have an extra 16 years on its contract, so maybe it'll still be worth more in absolute dollar terms. But SSR will still have the ability to trade into AKV, BLT, Poly, GFV, CCV, and the limited extended units at OKW. Plus Aulani and, at least in principle, GCV. That's a fair few options. For those who value trading, that might still be worth more than Rivera alone.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I have a question, that no one truly knows the answer to, but... which in 10 years time do you think (or I should probably say guess) will have a higher resale value, a small contract at Riviera or Saratoga?

I am aware DVC shouldn’t be seen as a financial investment as both may have no monetary value, but I am genuinely interested in your thoughts.

Quite a few people have said that Riviera will not retain value in comparison to the L14 due to the resale restrictions. However I feel small Riviera contracts *could* have a comparable resale value to SSR. That said I could be missing something entirely... I am fairly new to all of this.

(I know I can be seen as comparing apples to pears given the different expiry dates and current direct prices are approx $10-20pp different taking into account Riviera incentives)

I hope I don’t cause any offence as I do like SSR and had a contract taken in ROFR.

Could be similar. Riviera could be higher. All unknown. But if you buy SSR now you already have a a good discount built into the contract. If Riviera does drop to SSR levels you've had $50-$60/pt head out the window in comparison.

All the talk about values of non 2042 resorts tanking because they no longer have the 2042 resorts? All direct Riviera contracts also lose the 2042 trades. And so far all we have announced is the retirement community location of Reflections. Yes, it's unlikely that DVC will give up on the cash cow that new DVC resorts are but as they put in the paperwork of every contract they sell - there's no guarantee of any new resorts, even ones that have been announced like Reflections.

 

[Wakey]

Do you stay in 1 beds. For me, if you do, SSR every time. It’s cheaper, cheaper dues, and in 1 beds you can almost stay anywhere at 7 months. 7 month demand keeps going up, but this seems to be limited mainly to studios. This Xmas for example, I’m in Beach Club and BLT. 1 bed availibility cannot be beat.
But at peak times in studios, you are mainly confined to home resort.

 

[stuartsong]

I believe Riviera will have a higher value even with resale restrictions.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I believe Riviera will have a higher value even with resale restrictions.

Owners will likely not want to discount down because they will have paid a lot more to purchase. It's all going to end up depending on if there's a reduced resale market for the location because of the restrictions or not. And add a few years to determine if availability ends up affected because of resale restrictions.

 

[Madame]

They had better ALL be purchasing for the 7-11 month window at Rivera, or there are going to be some seriously unhappy Rivera resale owners.

They'd better hope DVC doesn't decide to give a longer window to direct vs resale buyers....

 

[kboo]

I'm still kind of on the fence about this. All this talk about "people buy where they want to stay anyway so the restrictions won't matter" implies that the ability to trade within DVC basically carries no value. I suspect that's true for a small subset of buyers, but I think for most prospective buyers, the ability to trade is a very strong selling point.

Prospective Rivera buyers on these boards seem to fall into one of two camps:

1. Those who have decided to buy Rivera direct in spite of the resale mess, either because they're not bothered by the possibility of a lower resale price, or because they don't believe it will happen.
2. Those who would be interested in buying Rivera on the cheap in exchange for giving up the ability to trade.

I'm not hearing a great many people saying "I'd be willing to pay a premium resale price for Rivera because I don't care about trading anyway". I sure there are a few in that category. But it'll take more than a few to hold up Rivera's resale value.

Returning to the direct question of Rivera resale price in 10 years... by then the expiration on BCV and BWV will be very much on the horizon, and I think that resale prices on those resorts (which are absolutely crazy now, IMO) will have to come back to something more reflective of those end dates. If I'm looking for an Epcot resort, and Rivera with all its restrictions costs as much or more (amortized) than BCV or BWV, why wouldn't I just pick up a BCV or BWV contract for 10-12 years, then re-evaluate my options when that contract expires? In the meantime I still get my Epcot area resort, plus I can trade into the other legacy resorts for as long that contract lasts. And when it expires, Rivera resales will still be there.

So the only reason to pay a premium resale price for Rivera would be for the love of Rivera specifically, even over BCV, BWV, or whatever other new options pop up in the meantime. Maybe it will be that popular, and maybe it won't. Wasn't that long ago that many long-time owners on this board were proclaiming that they wouldn't want to stay at that location at any price. Time will tell.

Comparing to SSR, Rivera will have an extra 16 years on its contract, so maybe it'll still be worth more in absolute dollar terms. But SSR will still have the ability to trade into AKV, BLT, Poly, GFV, CCV, and the limited extended units at OKW. Plus Aulani and, at least in principle, GCV. That's a fair few options. For those who value trading, that might still be worth more than Rivera alone.

I am someone who bought into RIV. I agree, the price differential between RIV direct / SSR resale, even with developer credits, is very large, but it's not so much when you compare it with resale prices that pass ROFR for VGF, BLT, CCV, or POLY. Or even BCV/BWV considering the end dates of those resorts.

Another point: I think it's relative whether you thing RIV resale prices will be at a "premium," or whether one considers SSR resale to be a "discounted" price because so many SSR buyers buy with the plan to switch elsewhere at 7mo.

The resale restriction essentially means that the only people who should be considering RIV resale are people who plan to use their points exclusively there, and to book more than 7 mo in advance. It may make sense for buyers who already own points that can trade into the L14, less so for a new resale buyer who doesn't own anywhere else.

They'd better hope DVC doesn't decide to give a longer window to direct vs resale buyers....

But even that isn't the end of the world - it may just make it harder to book at 7mo at times that aren't normally a problem. For example, if DVC makes it 10 months resale/11 months direct, and a resale owner has trouble booking and waitlisting at 10 months (unlikely except at Xmas/New Years/marathon weeks), a resale owner *may* end up being more flexible on their dates. Or they walk. All of which already happens in the system as it is, particularly with VGF, VGC, and AKV value/club, CCV studios at Xmas.... People will adjust; maybe it changes demand for RIV resale points a bit, but the sky is not falling. (Unless the sky actually literally IS falling, and climate change causes WDW to be underwater in 25 years, in which case we'd all have a lot worse things to worry about...)

 

[Madame]

I am someone who bought into RIV. I agree, the price differential between RIV direct / SSR resale, even with developer credits, is very large, but it's not so much when you compare it with resale prices that pass ROFR for VGF, BLT, CCV, or POLY. Or even BCV/BWV considering the end dates of those resorts.

Another point: I think it's relative whether you thing RIV resale prices will be at a "premium," or whether one considers SSR resale to be a "discounted" price because so many SSR buyers buy with the plan to switch elsewhere at 7mo.

The resale restriction essentially means that the only people who should be considering RIV resale are people who plan to use their points exclusively there, and to book more than 7 mo in advance. It may make sense for buyers who already own points that can trade into the L14, less so for a new resale buyer who doesn't own anywhere else.



But even that isn't the end of the world - it may just make it harder to book at 7mo at times that aren't normally a problem. For example, if DVC makes it 10 months resale/11 months direct, and a resale owner has trouble booking and waitlisting at 10 months (unlikely except at Xmas/New Years/marathon weeks), a resale owner *may* end up being more flexible on their dates. Or they walk. All of which already happens in the system as it is, particularly with VGF, VGC, and AKV value/club, CCV studios at Xmas.... People will adjust; maybe it changes demand for RIV resale points a bit, but the sky is not falling. (Unless the sky actually literally IS falling, and climate change causes WDW to be underwater in 25 years, in which case we'd all have a lot worse things to worry about...)

You’re coming from the place of a direct buyer. I’m coming of a place of resale only, never direct. Why would I pay top dollar for a restricted DRR contract when I could pick up BLT or CCV or PVB and not have to worry about any of that?

No, the sky is not falling, but DVC wants its cake & to eat it too - no more resale, but you can still trade into all of these fab past resorts...

 

[crvetter]

You’re coming from the place of a direct buyer. I’m coming of a place of resale only, never direct. Why would I pay top dollar for a restricted DRR contract when I could pick up BLT or CCV or PVB and not have to worry about any of that?

No, the sky is not falling, but DVC wants its cake & to eat it too - no more resale, but you can still trade into all of these fab past resorts...

The viewpoint I have (I'm considering an add-on) is that I want a Epcot resort and my choices are BWV or BCV that expire in 2042 and are expensive. If I bought BWV or BCV, they would be exclusively used at their home resort simply because it is uneconomical to do anything else with them (except maybe VGF or VGC). So DRR is a replacement option (giving me the extra years and some residual value in 2042 that won't exist with BWV or BCV) so when I buy DRR (either resale or direct) my view point is the same that I'll be buying them for use there exclusively. On resale I won't really put too much weight into the restrictions simply because the status quo (BWV and BCV) are functionally identical in my usage if I were to buy; seems like its the same way many owners current function also. Ultimately I'm more drawn and only interested in BCV, outside of DRR, and we all know you basically have to own there to get it most of the year (especially studios and 2 beds).

I think there are many types resale buyers out there and if a resale buyer is purchasing for exclusive access to that resort with little to no intention of booking elsewhere (rather adjust dates than change resorts) then DRR would be of interest to them. The question is there enough of a population to support a resale price, but ultimately the resale price will be functionally related to the rack rates of the resort and it's popularity with non-DVC (cash bookings)--more than anything else.

 

[Madame]

The viewpoint I have (I'm considering an add-on) is that I want a Epcot resort and my choices are BWV or BCV that expire in 2042 and are expensive. If I bought BWV or BCV, they would be exclusively used at their home resort simply because it is uneconomical to do anything else with them (except maybe VGF or VGC). So DRR is a replacement option (giving me the extra years and some residual value in 2042 that won't exist with BWV or BCV) so when I buy DRR (either resale or direct) my view point is the same that I'll be buying them for use there exclusively. On resale I won't really put too much weight into the restrictions simply because the status quo (BWV and BCV) are functionally identical in my usage if I were to buy; seems like its the same way many owners current function also. Ultimately I'm more drawn and only interested in BCV, outside of DRR, and we all know you basically have to own there to get it most of the year (especially studios and 2 beds).

I think there are many types resale buyers out there and if a resale buyer is purchasing for exclusive access to that resort with little to no intention of booking elsewhere (rather adjust dates than change resorts) then DRR would be of interest to them. The question is there enough of a population to support a resale price, but ultimately the resale price will be functionally related to the rack rates of the resort and it's popularity with non-DVC (cash bookings)--more than anything else.

We disagree that DRR is an EP resort. I’m going to opt out of DRR discussions as I have zero interest in owning there. Anyone who owns there direct or otherwise knows what they’re getting & not getting and doesn’t need me to tell them otherwise.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The viewpoint I have (I'm considering an add-on) is that I want a Epcot resort and my choices are BWV or BCV that expire in 2042 and are expensive. If I bought BWV or BCV, they would be exclusively used at their home resort simply because it is uneconomical to do anything else with them (except maybe VGF or VGC). So DRR is a replacement option (giving me the extra years and some residual value in 2042 that won't exist with BWV or BCV) so when I buy DRR (either resale or direct) my view point is the same that I'll be buying them for use there exclusively. On resale I won't really put too much weight into the restrictions simply because the status quo (BWV and BCV) are functionally identical in my usage if I were to buy; seems like its the same way many owners current function also. Ultimately I'm more drawn and only interested in BCV, outside of DRR, and we all know you basically have to own there to get it most of the year (especially studios and 2 beds).

I think there are many types resale buyers out there and if a resale buyer is purchasing for exclusive access to that resort with little to no intention of booking elsewhere (rather adjust dates than change resorts) then DRR would be of interest to them. The question is there enough of a population to support a resale price, but ultimately the resale price will be functionally related to the rack rates of the resort and it's popularity with non-DVC (cash bookings)--more than anything else. Also no matter what DRR will have a residual value for an owner in 2042 (or even within 5 years of 2042) than a BWV or BCV contract would have provided that owner (whether a direct or resale), question the resale price (yes even I'm doing that) but surely it will still have a value simply because it provides a discounted room on-site.

What might be interesting is if Riviera is a big hit and more people or all people consider it an Epcot resort then will BWV and BCV finally have a back down on the prices? 10+ years ago VWL, BCV and BWV were all almost identical in pricing. VWL has risen very modestly compared to the other two. And, if the spread were a bit more between Riviera and BCV/BWV would that change the decision?

 

[crvetter]

We disagree that DRR is an EP resort. I’m going to opt out of DRR discussions as I have zero interest in owning there. Anyone who owns there direct or otherwise knows what they’re getting & not getting and don’t need me to tell them otherwise.

I respect your opinion on it not being an Epcot resort for you, and agree it's really a personal value add if it is or isn't. To me what makes a hotel a resort to me belonging to a "park" is transportation convenience to the park and other area hotels (and to a smaller effect view). Convenience of transportation could be better (or at least equal) as MK monorail resorts to 2 parks and 2 deluxe hotel, S&D, 2 values, and 1 moderate. The monorail resorts provide easy transportation to 2 parks and 2 deluxe hotels. But really this all hinges on the Skyliner, and I'm waiting on my purchase decision until I can see the resort in person, so I'm not sold 100% yet (partly because of the thoughtful dialogue those counter to my view provide), but I'm close on that decision and well informed too because of discussions on DIS.

What might be interesting is if Riviera is a big hit and more people or all people consider it an Epcot resort then will BWV and BCV finally have a back down on the prices? 10+ years ago VWL, BCV and BWV were all almost identical in pricing. VWL has risen very modestly compared to the other two. And, if the spread were a bit more between Riviera and BCV/BWV would that change the decision?

Honestly, yes which is why I'm waiting on a purchase myself probably. Really BCV and BWV are commanding such a high price on resale considering their remaining life. I actually would consider BCV for around 140 if I could find another small contract, which seems hard at this point. I already lost out on one that I had wanted earlier this past winter and the prices have gone up too much (considering especially many are stripped until 2021 now, which makes me less interested). But actually your point here is very valid in that if DRR is successful in its marketing as an Epcto it could hurt BCV and BWV resale (maybe even during the active direct sales for DRR). I'd guess VWL hasn't risen nearly as much simply because the addition of many other MK resorts (with longer expiration) and now having direct competition at CCV so it helped hold it more in line with an expectation considering 2042.

 

[kboo]

You’re coming from the place of a direct buyer. I’m coming of a place of resale only, never direct. Why would I pay top dollar for a restricted DRR contract when I could pick up BLT or CCV or PVB and not have to worry about any of that?

Actually, not really. I had a small 25 point direct for benefits, back when that was a thing, but I was "resale or nothing" for a very long time. I wanted something that was close to EP and HS and my current home resorts were BLT and VGF. "Top dollar" for a RIV contract was $170 or less for 200 points or more, and it's *unrestricted* as to me. Whereas if I paid $145pp for a BLT contract, that contract would be restricted (from my perspective) because I couldn't use those points to trade INTO RIV. Yes, I have plenty of grandfathered points that I could use at 7mo, but that still leaves me challenged at 7 mo to get into an EP/HS-area resort.

The viewpoint I have (I'm considering an add-on) is that I want a Epcot resort and my choices are BWV or BCV that expire in 2042 and are expensive. If I bought BWV or BCV, they would be exclusively used at their home resort simply because it is uneconomical to do anything else with them (except maybe VGF or VGC). So DRR is a replacement option (giving me the extra years and some residual value in 2042 that won't exist with BWV or BCV) so when I buy DRR (either resale or direct) my view point is the same that I'll be buying them for use there exclusively. On resale I won't really put too much weight into the restrictions simply because the status quo (BWV and BCV) are functionally identical in my usage if I were to buy; seems like its the same way many owners current function also. Ultimately I'm more drawn and only interested in BCV, outside of DRR, and we all know you basically have to own there to get it most of the year (especially studios and 2 beds).

^^^ THIS. And the difficulty of getting 2BR villas at BWV is that every 2BR is a lockoff. So once studios are gone, 2BR units are gone.

 

[Madame]

Actually, not really. I had a small 25 point direct for benefits, back when that was a thing, but I was "resale or nothing" for a very long time. I wanted something that was close to EP and HS and my current home resorts were BLT and VGF. "Top dollar" for a RIV contract was $170 or less for 200 points or more, and it's *unrestricted* as to me. Whereas if I paid $145pp for a BLT contract, that contract would be restricted (from my perspective) because I couldn't use those points to trade INTO RIV. Yes, I have plenty of grandfathered points that I could use at 7mo, but that still leaves me challenged at 7 mo to get into an EP/HS-area resort.



^^^ THIS. And the difficulty of getting 2BR villas at BWV is that every 2BR is a lockoff. So once studios are gone, 2BR units are gone.

I meant a direct DRR buyer. I could be persuaded to buy direct, possibly, but never at a resort with restrictions.