Riviera - studio availability

[sethschroeder]

The more and more RIV resale bought. More people will be booking at 11 months maybe 11+. Right now it might not be bad. But in 20-30 years things will be totally different. I foresee standard view rooms ( probably even 1 and 2 bedrooms) and duo studio room being walked for the majority of the year.

1% per year

That is roughly the number of points that move from direct to resale on average in the long run. This was both originally run on OKW back in the day but then more recently I had run numbers on a couple different historical resorts based on the resale reporting.

Much of the walking currently I think is driven by rental spec units. Disney seems to be taking that serious and should remove some of the strain.

I dont see any way that 1BR and 2BR are walked most of the year even in the standard view category. Not to say people won't walk them I just dont see it ever being required the point allotments to categories is too big.

 

[Brian Noble]

1% per year

And even this might be slightly over-estimating things, as some of the points being sold on the seconary market now already were in the resale pool.

 

[walt34]

And even this might be slightly over-estimating things, as some of the points being sold on the seconary market now already were in the resale pool.

And if Disney ROFRs some points, they move back into the direct bucket.

Whether 5% or 15% of owners, who cannot move to a different resort, will make a noticeable difference in terms of availability remains to be seen.

 

[Brian Noble]

And if Disney ROFRs some points, they move back into the direct bucket.

But those aren't in the resale report, are they?

Either way, I'm in the "it won't really matter" camp. But I did hedge that with a fixed week.

 

[sethschroeder]

But those aren't in the resale report, are they?

Either way, I'm in the "it won't really matter" camp. But I did hedge that with a fixed week.

Its been a few years but where I pulled the information from pulled all the information from the county. I can't remember what was or wasn't in the reporting at this point. I wasn't using the New article from a different well known site. If I could remember the names I would say them but drawing a blank as haven't worried about it.

I am of the same thought as you. Don't think it will matter if you are a little flexible but still bought at FW (partly for if we sell it).

 

[walt34]

But those aren't in the resale report, are they?

Not sure, they are technically resold but if Disney is the (ROFR) buyer, they end up direct points, don't they?

My argument is that even if 1% of points of a specific resort are resold every year, this doesn't mean that the ratio of resale points increases by those points because some points are ROFRd by Disney and become direct points again.

This might be more relevant for RIV as I believe that the lower resale price (because of the restrictions) enable Disney to keep offering RIV direct at a more competitive price point than other sold-out resorts (and we might see more ROFR activity for RIV).