Also, not everyone plans 11 months out by choice. A lot of owners just make sure they book more than 7 months out because they can’t commit due to other things. Not everyone that owns DVC is a planner either. I know you shouldn’t buy DVC unless you can book more than 7 months out, but many do. A lot of direct RIV owners will still be switching around at 7 months.
We all have anecdotal stories of interesting conversations with other Disney timeshare owners at the parks. I'm chatty, so when the opportunity strikes I enjoy learning about how others enjoy their ownership when I meet members at the parks, at member events, at bus stops (lots of time there).
The one thing I will say I've learned is that most owners don't do much handwringing about dues, resale-restrictions, point reallocations. Most don't even know what two-thirds of those things are.
The vast majority of owners enjoy what they bought, namely a Disney Vacation Club ownership that affords them the opportunity to stay at several deluxe Disney properties at one of their favorite places to vacation. It's as simple as that. They are even afforded the flexibility of taking a cruise if they want to instead of staying at WDW. And if they tire of Disney, a trip the Grand canyon, Mexico, Europe are all available with their Disney Vacation Club points.
The doomsday scenario that keeps getting brought up about booking challenges at Riviera do adhere to a certain logic that I understand academically, but if we are to believe (as many of us do), that the larger majority of owners are people in who buy in at the parks (read: not people who research endlessly on boards like these about resale-restrictions and cost-effectiveness of the resale market), then those people will likely use the points as they were sold to them by their guides.
They'll book Riviera. They'll book at BCV to check out SAB. They'll use those points at AKV to see animals out their window. They'll book Disney cruises.
What they probably won't do is to give a second thought about the cost-effectiveness of doing so, because they will not have calculated out the average dollar per point per year for staying at X vs Y. They're too busy enjoying their ownership as it was meant to be enjoyed when Disney jumped into the timeshare business. For buyers to buy and keep and share with their families forever.
Resale owners are a small percentage of the entire Disney timeshare ownership. Some have put that number at ~10%. Even at 10%, it would take years for Riviera to get up to those numbers, and by then, original Riviera owners, who bought the product for it's flexibility will be enjoying it for its flexibility, staying at Reflections, the DLR resort, the new DHS gate resort, the new Epcot Gate resort, the new Magic Kingdom resort, and owners who want to stay at Riviera are unlikely to feel the pinch the doomsday scenario projects.
It's a tempting scenario to subscribe to, especially if one is strongly opposed to the new resale-restrictions. Logically, I think it makes sense (granted, I'm one of
those people). But as all things Disney related, logic is often a distant second (deliberately or otherwise) to the emotional elements of what Disney is selling and what each of us bought when we committed to years of returning to WDW. A number of people on these boards may not think this way, but we are a small, small minority.
Prospective buyers: If you love what you see at Riviera, you should buy there. Ten years from now, you'll be a lot happier doing so than spending time today handwringing about what might happen tomorrow. Most owners don't think about what they paid X years ago for their contracts. They're too busy just enjoying them.