Riviera Resale Values

[Brian Noble]

Will the generation of kids growing up today change how they buy timeshares?

My bet is no, given that human nature is what it is. In 2016, Consumer Reports wrote that the median age of a timeshare buyer was 39. Assuming that's still true (and there's no reason to think otherwise), today's 39-year-old has spent about half their life with Google being ubiquitous---the use of the word "google" as a verb dates back to 2006.

Yet timeshare sales don't seem to be slowing down. From where I sit, timeshare purchases are primarily qualitative, with just enough of a quantitative fig leaf to assuage the worst of the doubts. Are there exceptions? Sure, but the sales operation doesn't have to worry about exceptions, because they are by definition unusual.

 

[sethschroeder]

I am curious when there arw a glut of resort specific contracts sold via resale at some point down the line, the ability to get a reservation at those resorts is going to be extremely challenging. The math doesnt work availability vs demand when all the other resorts are still trying to trade in. I think those buying riviera resale neglect to notice this.

So they say OKW had a 20% turnover after 20 years. Also in 20 years BWV/BCV/BRV will all be 100% direct points again and that will be the case as every new resort is built.

In reality though places like BWV, BCV, VGF, and VGC still have rooms to stay in even though they are very much "own where you want to stay". Especially now with resale for BWV/BCV. You might be more locked in but people already choose never to stay at other resorts.

The biggest benefit of RIV is its properly balanced. You dont have cabins or bungalows taking up a huge amount of points. You also don't have VGF where 1/3rd of the rooms are dedicated 2BRs. Its not only the room allotments that are well balanced but the specific number of points needed as well.

Example
Going from a 1BR preferred to a 2BR standard is around a 3% increase in points
Going from a Studio preferred to a 1BR standard is around is around a 44% increase in points

Look at CCV as an example its over 50% Studio -> 1BR and 20% 1BR -> 2BR. That causes little movement in room category for individuals overall.

Also if resale points do end up being "cheaper" people will more easily be able to add on and get bigger rooms as well.

Finally it will just take a little more planning possibly or more flexibility. No different than people who buy SSR today and never want to stay there.

 

[RPT20]

Curious as to opinion for purchasing a direct RIV contract. If I was considering (ie. 300 points), with the current promotion the points can be acquired at or about $176. Given the resale contracts on other resorts which are around this price (with the restriction on RIV), and that a GF or BLT direct is $245, I feel as if RIV direct is a good option. I assume these contracts go back to the $200 level once the promotion is over. I understand the resale restriction, but I am thinking the opposite will be true for the resort holding it's value. I think purchasers will be less inclined to sell unless absolutely necessary and if Disney starts buying them back utilizing ROFR, then maybe sellers of RIV will just price them higher. Curious what others think...Thanks

 

[Ruttangel]

Curious as to opinion for purchasing a direct RIV contract. If I was considering (ie. 300 points), with the current promotion the points can be acquired at or about $176. Given the resale contracts on other resorts which are around this price (with the restriction on RIV), and that a GF or BLT direct is $245, I feel as if RIV direct is a good option. I assume these contracts go back to the $200 level once the promotion is over. I understand the resale restriction, but I am thinking the opposite will be true for the resort holding it's value. I think purchasers will be less inclined to sell unless absolutely necessary and if Disney starts buying them back utilizing ROFR, then maybe sellers of RIV will just price them higher. Curious what others think...Thanks

Which resort do you love?
If it’s VGF then there are 2 advantages to getting a resale there.
It will retain its value better and it’s dues are much lower. On 300pts you would be saving $450 on dues, based on 2021 figures. To be fair RIV dues are hardly going up atm.
BLT is also good choice due to lower dues and good point chart.

If you do love RIV then have athink about getting 2x150pt contracts or 3x100pt as this will offset some of the price factors of the resale restriction but it will increase closing costs

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

I understand the resale restriction, but I am thinking the opposite will be true for the resort holding it's value. I think purchasers will be less inclined to sell unless absolutely necessary and if Disney starts buying them back utilizing ROFR, then maybe sellers of RIV will just price them higher. Curious what others think...Thanks

People sell for all kinds of reasons: life changes result in less trips to WDW, financial hardships, changing home resort... probably some others I can't think of. My gut feeling is that the majority of sellers are in the first two groups but I could be wrong. In that case, I don't see owners being less inclined to sell as it has little to do with the actual product.

Even if supply is limited, you have to have demand to keep prices up as well and I just don't see that when legacy DVC resale contracts are available.

 

[RPT20]

Which resort do you love?
If it’s VGF then there are 2 advantages to getting a resale there.
It will retain its value better and it’s dues are much lower. On 300pts you would be saving $450 on dues, based on 2021 figures. To be fair RIV dues are hardly going up atm.
BLT is also good choice due to lower dues and good point chart.

If you do love RIV then have athink about getting 2x150pt contracts or 3x100pt as this will offset some of the price factors of the resale restriction but it will increase closing costs
[/QU

Which resort do you love?
If it’s VGF then there are 2 advantages to getting a resale there.
It will retain its value better and it’s dues are much lower. On 300pts you would be saving $450 on dues, based on 2021 figures. To be fair RIV dues are hardly going up atm.
BLT is also good choice due to lower dues and good point chart.

If you do love RIV then have athink about getting 2x150pt contracts or 3x100pt as this will offset some of the price factors of the resale restriction but it will increase closing costs

Thanks for your input. My favorites are GF and BLT! With GF having fewer rooms, I worry about obtaining a room. Also, in terms of status, I was wondering if the value of having a blue vs non blue card should factor into my decision. BTW, RIV is beautiful! My thinking was buy RIV - get the blue card at that entry point, then I could use the points to stay at BLT or GF or RIV. Is this thinking flawed? Thanks..

 

[RPT20]

People sell for all kinds of reasons: life changes result in less trips to WDW, financial hardships, changing home resort... probably some others I can't think of. My gut feeling is that the majority of sellers are in the first two groups but I could be wrong. In that case, I don't see owners being less inclined to sell as it has little to do with the actual product.

Even if supply is limited, you have to have demand to keep prices up as well and I just don't see that when legacy DVC resale contracts are available.

People sell for all kinds of reasons: life changes result in less trips to WDW, financial hardships, changing home resort... probably some others I can't think of. My gut feeling is that the majority of sellers are in the first two groups but I could be wrong. In that case, I don't see owners being less inclined to sell as it has little to do with the actual product.

Even if supply is limited, you have to have demand to keep prices up as well and I just don't see that when legacy DVC resale contracts are available.

Good point, appreciate the input.

 

[mdonald]

I am curious when there arw a glut of resort specific contracts sold via resale at some point down the line, the ability to get a reservation at those resorts is going to be extremely challenging. The math doesnt work availability vs demand when all the other resorts are still trying to trade in. I think those buying riviera resale neglect to notice this.

That is my worry about the restrictions as a direct owner. If 10% of contracts are sold on resale in 10 years, that's a whole lot of points that are not going to be used at other 14 resorts. Members will book at 11 month just to ensure they lock in reservation as otherwise they can stay no where. It was too late for us as our "guide" never told us about the restriction in 2019 when we bought in. We were "pushed" towards CCV or RR and liked the idea of the Murphy bed and were DVC naive. I think its going to be a mess in 5-10 years. Just think, if 1,000,000 points change had every year on resale market for all DVC, that 1 000 000 points that cannot book into Riviera. Thats gotta mess things up for all resorts (those 1 000 000 point will eat up other resort availability). Restrictions are restrictions for us all. Resale for other resorts are going to outweighs RIV resale for sure. Id be worried in 5-10 years that 10-20% of DVC contracts cannot book beyond original 14 and RIV owners direct can book up that inventory too. I think there are some harder days ahead as restrictions for resale are restrictions for all. Also, as an owner lets assume 5 000 000 points are sold at RIV (cannot find the number). If 10 or 20% of those points are locked into RIV only booking that's going to make it hard for me as a direct owner to book there....correct?

 

[Sandisw]

That is my worry about the restrictions as a direct owner. If 10% of contracts are sold on resale in 10 years, that's a whole lot of points that are not going to be used at other 14 resorts. Members will book at 11 month just to ensure they lock in reservation as otherwise they can stay no where. It was too late for us as our "guide" never told us about the restriction in 2019 when we bought in. We were "pushed" towards CCV or RR and liked the idea of the Murphy bed and were DVC naive. I think its going to be a mess in 5-10 years. Just think, if 1,000,000 points change had every year on resale market for all DVC, that 1 000 000 points that cannot book into Riviera. Thats gotta mess things up for all resorts (those 1 000 000 point will eat up other resort availability). Restrictions are restrictions for us all. Resale for other resorts are going to outweighs RIV resale for sure. Id be worried in 5-10 years that 10-20% of DVC contracts cannot book beyond original 14 and RIV owners direct can book up that inventory too. I think there are some harder days ahead as restrictions for resale are restrictions for all. Also, as an owner lets assume 5 000 000 points are sold at RIV (cannot find the number). If 10 or 20% of those points are locked into RIV only booking that's going to make it hard for me as a direct owner to book there....correct?

As a RIV owner, I don’t really see it quite the same way. I plan to always books at 11 months...Just like I do now... so I see the competition the same, even with the restrictions. More points will be restricted from even trading in to RIV in that same 10 years as well.

The other thing is that if the resale value is not strong for RIV, it is possible that less owners will sell at the same rate as in the past.

While I realize it’s not the exact same, there are people who buy points for specific use at a home resort, so I’m not sure it’s going to be a big issue if one uses the home resort booking.

Plus, if someone is buying RIV resale, they want to be there which leads me to think they would be 11 month booking owners even if they bought points direct. JMO

 

[RoseGold]

RIV won’t always be the new one on the OMG brand new skyliner, and it will be up against whatever the new project is. That was always Disney’s plan with the restrictions.

 

[havoc315]

That is my worry about the restrictions as a direct owner. If 10% of contracts are sold on resale in 10 years, that's a whole lot of points that are not going to be used at other 14 resorts. Members will book at 11 month just to ensure they lock in reservation as otherwise they can stay no where. It was too late for us as our "guide" never told us about the restriction in 2019 when we bought in. We were "pushed" towards CCV or RR and liked the idea of the Murphy bed and were DVC naive. I think its going to be a mess in 5-10 years. Just think, if 1,000,000 points change had every year on resale market for all DVC, that 1 000 000 points that cannot book into Riviera. Thats gotta mess things up for all resorts (those 1 000 000 point will eat up other resort availability). Restrictions are restrictions for us all. Resale for other resorts are going to outweighs RIV resale for sure. Id be worried in 5-10 years that 10-20% of DVC contracts cannot book beyond original 14 and RIV owners direct can book up that inventory too. I think there are some harder days ahead as restrictions for resale are restrictions for all. Also, as an owner lets assume 5 000 000 points are sold at RIV (cannot find the number). If 10 or 20% of those points are locked into RIV only booking that's going to make it hard for me as a direct owner to book there....correct?

It balances out... Riviera resale owners will only be booking at Riviera. But non-Riv resale owners won’t be able to book at Riviera at all. That should balance out. The end effect being that a higher percentage of people staying at Riv are direct Riv owners.

 

[RivShore]

As a RIV owner, I don’t really see it quite the same way. I plan to always books at 11 months...Just like I do now... so I see the competition the same, even with the restrictions. More points will be restricted from even trading in to RIV in that same 10 years as well.

The other thing is that if the resale value is not strong for RIV, it is possible that less owners will sell at the same rate as in the past.

While I realize it’s not the exact same, there are people who buy points for specific use at a home resort, so I’m not sure it’s going to be a big issue if one uses the home resort booking.

Plus, if someone is buying RIV resale, they want to be there which leads me to think they would be 11 month booking owners even if they bought points direct. JMO

And for the most part, don't all owners usually book their home resort at 11 months then move it at 7 if they want to stay elsewhere so competition at 11 months will not change much at all.

 

[Sandisw]

And for the most part, don't all owners usually book their home resort at 11 months then move it at 7 if they want to stay elsewhere so competition at 11 months will not change much at all.

I think who will be more impacted are those who want to trade in vs owners of the resort because the movement at 7 months will be less since resale owners can’t go anywhere else.

Now for anyone who doesn’t normally book 11 months, it could mean changing ones planning, but if someone bought RIV to stay at RIV, and trade out occasionally, I think they will be booking 11 months out,

Even now, with very few resale points, SV rooms are popular so those will require 11 month, 8am bookings regardless.

 

[Noodlez]

And for the most part, don't all owners usually book their home resort at 11 months then move it at 7 if they want to stay elsewhere so competition at 11 months will not change much at all.

I own at BCV and for the times of year I travel I wouldn't say I need to do it at exactly 11 months. I tend to do it within a few days, but generally there are still rooms a few weeks later. Even when booking for 1st October it was quite easy to get a room.

 

[gisele2]

If this is true, then I just squeaked by - LOL! I passed ROFR for a BCV contract at $120 p/point on 1/14 - the same day the price increased to $245!!

Congrats neighbor!

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

That is my worry about the restrictions as a direct owner. If 10% of contracts are sold on resale in 10 years, that's a whole lot of points that are not going to be used at other 14 resorts. Members will book at 11 month just to ensure they lock in reservation as otherwise they can stay no where. It was too late for us as our "guide" never told us about the restriction in 2019 when we bought in. We were "pushed" towards CCV or RR and liked the idea of the Murphy bed and were DVC naive. I think its going to be a mess in 5-10 years. Just think, if 1,000,000 points change had every year on resale market for all DVC, that 1 000 000 points that cannot book into Riviera. Thats gotta mess things up for all resorts (those 1 000 000 point will eat up other resort availability). Restrictions are restrictions for us all. Resale for other resorts are going to outweighs RIV resale for sure. Id be worried in 5-10 years that 10-20% of DVC contracts cannot book beyond original 14 and RIV owners direct can book up that inventory too. I think there are some harder days ahead as restrictions for resale are restrictions for all. Also, as an owner lets assume 5 000 000 points are sold at RIV (cannot find the number). If 10 or 20% of those points are locked into RIV only booking that's going to make it hard for me as a direct owner to book there....correct?

This will probably depend on your room preference also. There are a lot of 1/2 bedrooms (when you add in the lock-offs) but studios might have stiff competition. As noted below, studios and 1 bedrooms even out once you break up the lock offs.

Tower Studio: 24
Deluxe Studio: 38
1 Bedroom: 29
2 Bedroom: 90
2 Bedroom Lock-Off: 148
Grand Villa: 12

It will certainly be interesting to watch. It's definitely different than the original DVC resorts.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

That is my worry about the restrictions as a direct owner. If 10% of contracts are sold on resale in 10 years, that's a whole lot of points that are not going to be used at other 14 resorts. Members will book at 11 month just to ensure they lock in reservation as otherwise they can stay no where. It was too late for us as our "guide" never told us about the restriction in 2019 when we bought in. We were "pushed" towards CCV or RR and liked the idea of the Murphy bed and were DVC naive. I think its going to be a mess in 5-10 years. Just think, if 1,000,000 points change had every year on resale market for all DVC, that 1 000 000 points that cannot book into Riviera. Thats gotta mess things up for all resorts (those 1 000 000 point will eat up other resort availability). Restrictions are restrictions for us all. Resale for other resorts are going to outweighs RIV resale for sure. Id be worried in 5-10 years that 10-20% of DVC contracts cannot book beyond original 14 and RIV owners direct can book up that inventory too. I think there are some harder days ahead as restrictions for resale are restrictions for all. Also, as an owner lets assume 5 000 000 points are sold at RIV (cannot find the number). If 10 or 20% of those points are locked into RIV only booking that's going to make it hard for me as a direct owner to book there....correct?

That cuts both ways though. Yeah, Riviera resale owners won't be staying elsewhere but you won't have resale buyers from the other resorts trying to get into Riviera, either. You might have tougher competition booking in the home resort booking window, but you should have more flexibility to book last minute trips in the 7 month window.

 

[Brian Noble]

There are a lot of 1/2 bedrooms (when you add in the lock-offs) but studios might have stiff competition.

My guess is that most lockoffs will end up being booked separately.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

My guess is that most lockoffs will end up being booked separately.

Ah, you're right. I was being dumb when I read that. Wasn't thinking about how a 2br becomes a 1br/deluxe studio. Only tower studios are limited.

 

[Bjaiken77]

I’m personally bothered by Disney’s practice of 2nd tiering resale buyers. What difference does it make whether someone buys 50 years and holds vs. 10 years and sells? Disney still got retail value on the initial sale. They should be thanking resale purchasers, as they’d sell a fraction of their timeshares if people felt like they were “stuck” with a contract. Finally, resale purchasers are going to pay far more money in maintenance dues than the original contract ever costs, no matter whether it was retail or resale. It doesn’t make a big difference to Disney, but for someone a little cash strapped it can make all the difference in the world between entry or not. Just my $0.02.